anyhow best i can tell silver gold ratio is a LAGGING indicator for GDX
bottoming process continues
Posted 05 February 2019 - 11:31 AM
normally the fed raises interest rates so when the next recession hits , they have room to lower rates. w/ qe 1-3 they expanded their balance sheet by multiples.
now powell has chosen to change course and watch . the fed is trapped. they can never leave the market. the gold market is sensitive to this. i believe this action by the fed is key for the gold bull. later in the cycle they can/will raise rates , but they will be behind the curve and gold will continue to rise. just ask volcker about that
now this doesnt mean that an investor should throw out all discipline. on the contrary discipline will make or break you at this stage. i think after this pullback we will see a larger more powerful rally. w/china being on holidays this week , so far the market is very firm
i am on the buy waiting.
Posted 05 February 2019 - 02:33 PM
No complaints from me regarding the recent action, high level consolidation/correction that has alleviated near term overbought, patterns off the high clearly corrective everywhere I look in miners/gold, GDXJ just went positive, not givin the bears much at all and buyers lookin for a "significant" pullback are still "lookin"
Posted 06 February 2019 - 11:11 AM
by the way i am very long.
the cot reporting is now a bad joke 5 week old cots. its now, for me , useless information
too early to say definitively if this is a bull market or not 1380 needs to be taken out. but the adage is "bulls climb a wall of worry"
so if you are worried. that is par for the market
w/arguably the largest gold buyer,china, out of the market this week, so far the market remains quite firm
the fed , stuck in hotel california, has changed the game.
i am on the buy waiting to see if we get a more meaningful correction. this high level of consolidation is creating
bullish looking charts. for the sector. oscillators have moved down from overbought
the last dsi reading i have is 75 and that is 2 days ago. high but when you consider its after 170 advance it seems quite normal
Edited by dharma, 06 February 2019 - 11:15 AM.
Posted 06 February 2019 - 04:05 PM
Maybe a half way flag forming in GDX and GDXJ.
There should be a low on Feb 7th, perhaps just an ABC correction for now...
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
Posted 07 February 2019 - 12:09 PM
looks like the broad market has topped out
i have a turn in gold mid month.
so far , considering china, the top gold market in the world(arguably) is on holidays so no buying this week gold has remained firm
the bankster beatings of past years has given way to more stability to the pm sector after this correction i think the next up move will be
bigger and more powerful
i do think the fed is done raising. el erian agrees https://www.cnbc.com...han-a-hike.html
also, the election is not that distant . and if trump wants to get reelected things have to look good