911 replies to this topic

[Smithy]

"  ....  the fed will do as the ecb and buy the long end to keep rates down...

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This makes no sense to me. The interest rate market is much bigger than the Fed; you'll notice they never influence rates, they only follow them.

[tradesurfer]

So if the tariffs engage in Friday at 12.01am

Does anyone here see a liquidity trap that then tanks the market ...and forces the fed to intervene immediately next week and cut rates .50 ?

That would skyrocket the gold stocks

[dharma]

i do think they cut rates, the question is when?
well just look at the ecb they have been buying bonds to keep rates down
the fed expanded its balance sheet in the 08/09 debacle
it may make no sense,but this is what they do in these circumstances
gundlach is a pretty smart guy
as soon as the dots get connected gold will rally.this wave 1 is occurring w/really poor sentiment
its going to take some time to gain traction
dharma

[dharma]

watching soybeans for a clue as to the potential trade deal w/china. so far soybeans have given no indication. that a deal
is imminent
seems like a crap shoot in here. double bottom in gold w/the neckline #1290 breaking that projects to 1313
i have no idea what happens w/a trade deal.??? gundlach made some good points yesterday. the debt is out of control
dharma

[gannman]

gld above 124 would be a start but big picture wise 

 

i am watching the deficit. at some point there will be a dollar 

 

crisis imo and then we can start a real bull market in gold

[dougie]

hmmm. that is not terribly constructive. Move off lows likely corrective though i can see one bullish count

[gannman]

https://s21.q4cdn.co...sults_Final.pdf

 

 

fnv had a nice quarter

[senorBS]

https://s21.q4cdn.co...sults_Final.pdf

 

 

fnv had a nice quarter

as did WDO which is up close to 9%, Paas looked solid but HL looks pretty bad - maybe a very cheap takeover for someone or bankruptcy eventually. I like the overall action and while the exact bottom is always difficult to pinpoint this IMO is where one wants to be long from, as always DYODD and keep and eye on the DXY

 

Senor

[dharma]

soybeans making new 52 week lows=no trade deal
the sentiment in the sector is really bad, 8yrs of bear market will do that
from these ashes i look for a bull market to be born
how long and how low must the stock market go before the fed takes action?
not a time to be all in ,but i time to wait for confirmation. pick your spot
or spots. the debt and deficits are out of control. the dollar/yen is on the cusp
forex traders consider the yen risk off. the usa is able to hold it together because of the
reserve status of the dollar
patience
dharma

Edited by dharma, 09 May 2019 - 11:15 AM.

[dharma]

the dollars roll as reserve currency has helped maintain the whole debt structure.the whole world is helping to finance
the debt. and since the debt is in dollar the fed can print as much money as it sees fit to finance the soaring deficits
they can and have increased their balance sheets
smoot-hawley was enacted june 30.1930 this set up trade barriers. today we have the 2 largest economic powerhouses
bandying about tarifs threatening to choke each other off. if that is not bad enough the list of trade conflicts w/eu/
russia/mexico etc. so called "free trade' is breaking down
i have said for a very long time that i expect stagflation we are looking at the seeds of that right here right now
i feel from these ashes a bull will born in commodities and in particular the pms
patience, it takes time for the market to connect the dots
dharma