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FF for 2019 - SPX 2100 & Nasdaq 5000

Bull Market is Over

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#1 SemiBizz

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 03:41 PM

And those are my minimal expectations.

 

Which equates a complete regurgitation of the Trump Rally Premiums...

 

We'll see if I'm wrong.


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#2 12SPX

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 03:45 PM

And those are my minimal expectations.

 

Which equates a complete regurgitation of the Trump Rally Premiums...

 

We'll see if I'm wrong.

But what about the next 5 minutes lol, JK!  Interesting though would love to hear more comments!



#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 03:52 PM

OK, just for you.

 

From Today's Forecast Comments:

 

SPX - HYSTERICAL SHORT-COVERING RALLY AFTER A FEW "FRIENDLY" WORDS FROM FED CHAIRMAN - So we said to expect further rally in line with the month end, but stocks got a big boost today when Powell seemed to indicate some "slowing" in the rate hikes, however nothing that he said indicated that they would stop raising rates.  It was enough to jump-start this hysterical short-covering rally and it turned into a GIANT BEAR SPIKE as SPX closed at 2743.48, about 1/2 point off the nice round 2744.000 high of the day and UP an insane 61 points higher.  This is the stuff bear markets are made of, because bull markets climb a wall of worry, they don't pole vault like today, so this is further confirmation of a bear market, not evidence to the contrary... nevertheless, there are still 2 more days in this month end window into Friday, and although this market is ridiculously overbought and due for a pullback, there's no guarantee we'll get one and even if we do get one, we should be prepared for additional mark up into Friday... when the talk will turn to speculation of a China "Deal" and we could see another hysterical rally into the weekend. 

 

 

NASDAQ BLASTS HIGHER ON POWELL "PUT" HYSTERICAL RALLY - So we are not at all surprised that we had a rally on Wednesday, but the hysterical size of it was a little bit of a shock as NASDAQ closed UP almost 209 points at 7291 and while volume was stronger again at 2.3B shares, it was well short of the benchmarks established on the way down.  So while we still expect some further markup, we are now overdue for a pullback, but any pullback could still see the Nasdaq "hold the gains" with a rebound into the close.  The funds behind the market need a strong month end print now after such huge losses in November as Nasdaq is still down over 140 points for the month.  Beyond that we can expect Friday to be marked by some additional speculation of a China "deal" that we don't think is going to happen... So it was a huge rally, but we expected a rally - and it might be tough to just hold the line on the gains. 

 


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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#4 12SPX

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 04:02 PM

 

OK, just for you.

 

From Today's Forecast Comments:

 

SPX - HYSTERICAL SHORT-COVERING RALLY AFTER A FEW "FRIENDLY" WORDS FROM FED CHAIRMAN - So we said to expect further rally in line with the month end, but stocks got a big boost today when Powell seemed to indicate some "slowing" in the rate hikes, however nothing that he said indicated that they would stop raising rates.  It was enough to jump-start this hysterical short-covering rally and it turned into a GIANT BEAR SPIKE as SPX closed at 2743.48, about 1/2 point off the nice round 2744.000 high of the day and UP an insane 61 points higher.  This is the stuff bear markets are made of, because bull markets climb a wall of worry, they don't pole vault like today, so this is further confirmation of a bear market, not evidence to the contrary... nevertheless, there are still 2 more days in this month end window into Friday, and although this market is ridiculously overbought and due for a pullback, there's no guarantee we'll get one and even if we do get one, we should be prepared for additional mark up into Friday... when the talk will turn to speculation of a China "Deal" and we could see another hysterical rally into the weekend. 

 

 

NASDAQ BLASTS HIGHER ON POWELL "PUT" HYSTERICAL RALLY - So we are not at all surprised that we had a rally on Wednesday, but the hysterical size of it was a little bit of a shock as NASDAQ closed UP almost 209 points at 7291 and while volume was stronger again at 2.3B shares, it was well short of the benchmarks established on the way down.  So while we still expect some further markup, we are now overdue for a pullback, but any pullback could still see the Nasdaq "hold the gains" with a rebound into the close.  The funds behind the market need a strong month end print now after such huge losses in November as Nasdaq is still down over 140 points for the month.  Beyond that we can expect Friday to be marked by some additional speculation of a China "deal" that we don't think is going to happen... So it was a huge rally, but we expected a rally - and it might be tough to just hold the line on the gains. 

 

 

Nice writing thanks!!!  You do have a good point about climbing a wall of worry!!



#5 zoropb

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 07:12 PM

Im with you semi not a doubt in my mind we will see those numbers.  


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#6 fib_1618

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Posted 29 November 2018 - 09:14 PM

 

FF for 2019 - SPX 2100 & Nasdaq 5000

 

Your forecast has been duly noted,

 

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#7 MDurkin

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 05:12 AM

OK FF - 1577 on the SPX by 2021- bouncing off  2000/2007 tops. Then off to the races...



#8 relax

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Posted 30 November 2018 - 05:55 AM

new highs in 2019, into 3000s...