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Short Term Market Setups


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#31 EntropyModel

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 06:59 PM

 

Update for last hour and general market comment.

https://www.screenca...om/t/bbo01sbn0Y

Thanks for your views.

 

 

Ur Welcome MDurkin.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#32 EntropyModel

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Posted 04 December 2018 - 07:00 PM

Update for last hour and general market comment.

https://www.screenca...om/t/bbo01sbn0Y

 

Yep - got the decline into the close, followed the system signals well today.

 

Will take a look at EOD later, but tomorrow market is closed I believe, so time to assess if anyone is interested. 


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#33 EntropyModel

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Posted 05 December 2018 - 02:10 PM

I did a ton of backtesting this AM - the only matches I could find since year 2001 ( I don't bother past that, it includes

two bears, two bull markets for complete picture,plus I only have hourly data from 2001):

 - put high odds, we just completed a '5 wave c' wave up of ABC  ..and now down to 2640 gap close.

 

There werent' that many setups, maybe 6-10 depending on how I defined it, but, if say HALF of those cases,

we got a bounce right here of about 33-50% ( no higher in any instance) before a drop to target (2640 in this case).

 

The other half dropped bit further, then got weak bounce..20-33%, then dropped to target.

 

This is purely PRICE based setup/signal, based on bollinger bands/price/momentum combination.

 

So this, and most of the signals I look at on the hourly swing signal set, paint same picture, a drop to close that

gap @ 2640.

 

So assuming that setup executes, the next question is, bounce first?  ( a move above 50% retrace wd cancel setup)

There's nothing on the hourly to tell that I could find, would need 1-10min data for my ST signal set, which I don't have alas.

But the ST signal is not ideally 'triggered for buy', so, more time spent in 'bottoming action thur, or a lower low is higher odds

than a larger opening bounce that sticks. 

 

To get ST buy trigger, I expect VIX will need to reach 23-24 then turn down, VXN >26 and turn down.

 

Will look at futures later tonight, might yield further clues.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 05 December 2018 - 02:13 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#34 EntropyModel

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Posted 05 December 2018 - 05:27 PM

Looking far and wide for any bullish signal - this is only one I cd find for thursday:  Trin signal

https://www.screenca...om/t/REbtEej63s

 

How to interpret this depends alot on the open - and if trin drops ..if it stays high, selling can continue,

so the buy signal is only if trin now declines sharply.

 

Here is how I see tomorrow open setup:

A 20+pt gap up wd be the most difficult setup for ST traders, have to see in real time.

A less than 20pt up open - high odds gets closed and can see if VIx/Vxn spike to level I gave etc

A 10-20pt gap down open - high odds runs toward 2640 then bounce hard.

A flattish open - I expect some churn down another 10-20pts then small bounce setup, again have to see real time.

 

All this in context of hourly swing sell - so as said, very high odds a move to 2640 for this current move, unless

we take out 2750 immediately tomorrow to upside( which is low odds given the setup).


Edited by Entropy3.0, 05 December 2018 - 05:39 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#35 EntropyModel

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Posted 05 December 2018 - 05:55 PM

FYI - since market is closed, and I have minute to re-iterate my tag line. Here is how I trade:

I focus on TWO timeframes with two signals

1. Short Term (ST) signal - 30 minutes to few hours. 

Example, on friday I gave signal @ 2758  ...in 30minutes we dropped 2722 ..so as can see, it can net alot of points

in short time, that is point, i'm not trying to catch 'every point' but the fast part of bounces or declines because

a. I don't want to sit in trade for hours ( for those that day trade, u know why)

b. It has high win rate by not trying to catch exact highs/lows

 

2. Hourly Swing Signal: multi day ..usually 2-7 days.

We got a Sell on this midday Friday, after previous buy I posted around last tue.

I posted chart above as proxy for signal - but has ALOT of signals as part of it to rule out as many 'false' signals as possible.

 

Everything on those signals is backtested, real time tested, hard signals - with little to no 'interpretation' to avoid bias as possible.

That is the intraday system. 

 

whats in that system? in order of importance - Liquidity signals, volatility signals, price signals, sentiment signals and a few other 'stuff'.

 

Then, separately, I look at IT and Bull/bear signals - and here, yes, I'll throw in some subjective analysis - the tape, waves( not Elliot, my own stuff),

and in general these timeframes are 'prediction' because they turn slower, and one is then trying to guesstimate those turns.

I will not ever trade Swing timeframe,I willoccasional hold long term IT and then trade ST, or hourly swing hedging against it.

The IT/bull-bear is CONTEXT for the trading signals -   context changes risk/reward mainly, not buy/sell on ST signals.

 

I do NOT trade futures, or overnight ( except, long term position) - because I don't want to think about market 24/7, and I will.

I don't trade individual stocks, or options - I dont want to complicate the issue , the system is only tunable to market, SPX/comp specifically.

I occasionally trade NUGT/Gold.

 

What u will never hear me say -

 - the market WILL do x : why?  no one can predict the market, there is no 'must, will', anyone who believes that will be schooled by Ms Market.

 

What u will hear me say - 

- the market setup X, has a probability that is low, or high or variations of e.g. very high.

- I am stalking/observing, awaiting a better setup - I do not need to be a 'prediction hero' trying to call every twist and turn. 


Edited by Entropy3.0, 05 December 2018 - 06:07 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#36 EntropyModel

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Posted 05 December 2018 - 06:20 PM

I did a ton of backtesting this AM - the only matches I could find since year 2001 ( I don't bother past that, it includes

two bears, two bull markets for complete picture,plus I only have hourly data from 2001):

 - put high odds, we just completed a '5 wave c' wave up of ABC  ..and now down to 2640 gap close.

 

There werent' that many setups, maybe 6-10 depending on how I defined it, but, if say HALF of those cases,

we got a bounce right here of about 33-50% ( no higher in any instance) before a drop to target (2640 in this case).

 

The other half dropped bit further, then got weak bounce..20-33%, then dropped to target.

 

This is purely PRICE based setup/signal, based on bollinger bands/price/momentum combination.

 

So this, and most of the signals I look at on the hourly swing signal set, paint same picture, a drop to close that

gap @ 2640.

 

So assuming that setup executes, the next question is, bounce first?  ( a move above 50% retrace wd cancel setup)

There's nothing on the hourly to tell that I could find, would need 1-10min data for my ST signal set, which I don't have alas.

But the ST signal is not ideally 'triggered for buy', so, more time spent in 'bottoming action thur, or a lower low is higher odds

than a larger opening bounce that sticks. 

 

To get ST buy trigger, I expect VIX will need to reach 23-24 then turn down, VXN >26 and turn down.

 

Will look at futures later tonight, might yield further clues.

 

Yeah..the futures are giving a 'clue'.  Well, they hit my target LOL ..we'll see if this triggers 'support' ..probably.

https://www.screenca.../t/cXsazyYwuILO

 

Hate 'flash' moves ..always brings risk of 'white knights' and mess up of  setups...lets see where we actually open tomorrow.


Edited by Entropy3.0, 05 December 2018 - 06:22 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB