3 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

This week's first risk window on December 3rd was a barn burner top.  It will be interesting to see if the December 6th risk window is the long soft cycle low event that I have been expecting lo these many weeks.  

 

I incorrectly posited a couple of posts ago that a one-two punch from trade and the FED would produce the expected cycle low on the 3rd, but little did I know that both FED and PRES would fold their hands creating a sharp rally into the risk window.  Scratch another one up to my cracked crystal ball.  The next risk window on the 6th is shaping up to either be a low or an acceleration day down.  It's hard to see how it could be top.  A turn up by the close on the 6th from the current level or lower is the higher odds bet, but I can't rule out an acceleration day down.  What do you call an acceleration down from an 800 point DOW drop, dare I say the word?  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[tradesurfer]

The more we say the 'C' word, the less chance it has of actually happening lol 

 

[Douglas]

The FED could succeed  in letting the air out of the super bubble slowly. It will take finesse on a monumental scale.  Maybe they can do it, but Powell's current strategy of  keeping the pump running to stop it deflating doesn't seem like a solid solution to the problem.  He doesn't appear to be ready to let the air out slowly or quickly or at all for that matter.  Sooner or later a black swan armed with a pointy little pin will take over and solve the problem for him.  The "when", as always, is the wretched little thing that will escape all but the best and the luckiest.  Obviously my only hope is luck.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[zoropb]

D   I don't doubt that is the plan to blame it on that pointy black swan.        I wanted to say thanks for your post I enjoy them.