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Bear Update


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#1 RagingSpartan

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 09:45 AM

Small caps broke the Oct lows.

#2 RagingSpartan

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 09:56 AM

Close on the lows

#3 Data

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 10:03 AM

Three failed attempts to recover the 200-day moving average has been a signature technical signal in past declines, not necessarily bear markets.  The markets are likely to stretch the recent percentage negative variance from the 200-day moving average from -5 percent that was the recent floor.



#4 nacho

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 10:59 AM

At some point we need the flush. Looking at the daily/weekly price charts zoomed out, this is not what bottoms look like. 



#5 Data

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 11:19 AM

I meant to add the German DAX leading indicator but I couldn't edit the last post.

 

Market has been trading in a rectangle chart pattern all year.   If you add the linear regression line, the last three rallies tested the midpoint of the box (rectangle) and the market is set up to test the lower trendline again.



#6 RagingSpartan

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 12:09 PM

SPX 2500 is the number to watch.

#7 Data

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 12:39 PM

2615-2625 is approximately the lower boundary of the huge rectangle.  This is the third test of the chart pattern.  I expect my indicators will get oversold enough by tomorrow or Monday to prevent much breakage yet.  Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 have been backtesting their rectangles after breaking down.



#8 NAV

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 12:55 PM

SPX 2500 is the number to watch.

 

Yep. That's the number to watch. Been saying that since Feb this year. That's the bull-bear demarcation line long term. Until that's broken, it's a larger degree trading range.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#9 slupert

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 02:02 PM

SPX 2500 is the number to watch.

 

 

I see that as a possibility as well but not until the new year, and not until a more severe decline in the 10yr. (JMHO)