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Bear Update


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#1 RagingSpartan

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 12:34 PM

Last 2 lows, end of Oct and Nov, triggered some bottom spotters. Notice how at this third low we don't see any of those triggers. Supply and demand is pointing south and it's just a matter of time now.

#2 LMF

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 12:56 PM

Atleast on TQQQ.....Fridays have not been up days since September.  Only 2 up and 12 down as of today.  Not the usual bullish seasonality until that trend changes.  Nobody wants to hold this market very long, and forget about a weekend.



#3 beta

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 01:47 PM

Will test recent lows, but next attempt could be a higher low.  


Edited by beta, 07 December 2018 - 01:50 PM.

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#4 tradesurfer

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 01:58 PM

The magic number for Weekly close in the DJIA to watch today is 24195.

 

Closing under that this week means next week will be mega down...



#5 typicalbear

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 02:09 PM

Last 2 lows, end of Oct and Nov, triggered some bottom spotters. Notice how at this third low we don't see any of those triggers. Supply and demand is pointing south and it's just a matter of time now.

 

2542 ....by the 14th.



#6 RagingSpartan

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 02:11 PM

Potential panic close

#7 K Wave

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 02:58 PM

If VIX goes out today over 25, Monday could be ugly......


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#8 K Wave

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 03:01 PM

Trannies within easy last hour striking distance of October low.....

 

Man is that an ugly weekly candle on that one.....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 kaiser soze

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 03:13 AM

I see a change of trend.  The bearish phase that started on Dec 3/Dec 4, has run its course, at least temporarily IMHO.  It should be rally time next week.  My target for the Qs is 175, but could go as high as 177.  Gains in the SPX should be more contained though.  Still expect Jan 2019 to be nasty.

 

 

04 December 2018 - 01:11 PM

kaiser soze, on 03 Dec 2018 - 09:31 AM, said:snapback.png

Spartan, 

 

Previously I disagreed with you and called a bottom at SPX 2603.

 

But price action in large cap tech is horrible since QQQ=157 in spite of the rally.  I'm with you now in the bear camp, and think Tech will break the November lows soon, likely before the end of January 2019 taking the market down with it.  They might try to get marginal new highs in SPX in the mean time, but even that looks increasingly difficult.

 

-KS

 

 

TOLD YA' SO.  Cyclical stocks getting taken to the woodshed.  Recession trade.

 

 


Edited by kaiser soze, 08 December 2018 - 03:15 AM.


#10 dougie

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 03:30 PM

 

I see a change of trend.  The bearish phase that started on Dec 3/Dec 4, has run its course, at least temporarily IMHO.  It should be rally time next week.  My target for the Qs is 175, but could go as high as 177.  Gains in the SPX should be more contained though.  Still expect Jan 2019 to be nasty.

 

 

04 December 2018 - 01:11 PM

kaiser soze, on 03 Dec 2018 - 09:31 AM, said:snapback.png

Spartan, 

 

Previously I disagreed with you and called a bottom at SPX 2603.

 

But price action in large cap tech is horrible since QQQ=157 in spite of the rally.  I'm with you now in the bear camp, and think Tech will break the November lows soon, likely before the end of January 2019 taking the market down with it.  They might try to get marginal new highs in SPX in the mean time, but even that looks increasingly difficult.

 

-KS

 

 

TOLD YA' SO.  Cyclical stocks getting taken to the woodshed.  Recession trade.

 

 

 

definetly some positive divergences in Comp