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System BULLISH, intuition BEARISH


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 11:32 AM

McClellanOsc_432.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 03:17 PM

BEAR MARKET:

"...Nothing has changed on our Big Picture view, as you know we think that market put in a significant top in Sept and is in a bear market. Also this significant volatility that we are seeing is typical of bear market action. My SPX 401K Paint Dry system is very very close to giving an exit signal. However I also have long term paint dry systems on other markets, 8 in total counting the SPX. All of them except for the SPX are in cash: The QQQ Technology long term system is in cash, the RUT Small Caps long term system is in cash, the ADR International system is in cash, the Emerging markets is in cash, and both of my bond systems are also in cash. That should tell you something, anyway I"ll show you that below, and I may also add those systems to the website as well along with the SPX 401K system. 

In the short-term the market appears to be in a complex ABC type corrective pattern taking the form of a double zigzag; and is now trending down in a wave c that should take the major indexes below their October lows. On a positive note, once this wave completes we should see a decent counter trend rally.  The Russell 2000 has already already taken out its October lows. For the year the Down is down -1.3%, SPX down -1.5%, Nasdaq is up 1%, NDX up 3.4%, and the Russell 2000 is down -5.7%.  However many of the major market sectors are down big numbers:  OIH Oil Services is down -35%, and XLE Energy is down -9.5%.  Banks and Financials are down -12.6% and -8.9% respectively, and Transports are down -6.25%, and Industrials are down -8.9%.  Utilities are up about 10% for the year and has a been a safe haven.

There's a lot of potential news time bombs in the market, from Tariff and China news, to Trump and the Russian Investigation which may be about to be released finally.  On a side note, during the Nixon Watergate scandal, the market was down 35% by the end! Realize I'm not trying to compare Russian Gate to Watergate, I'm simply making a point that it can have a negative impact. The market is also very concerned with the Bond market, and yield curve which is not very far from inverting. 

Also regarding China I'm hearing rumblings that is in a pretty precarious debt situation that some insiders fear could pop sometime next year fist quarter, especially if the US eventually goes through with the 10% tariffs. The point is that's another thing that could send the market down much lower next year as well."

https://breakpointtrades.com/



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 10 December 2018 - 06:12 AM

Main Street headline on the markets --- bullish indicator when markets are down, contrarian

 

Reluctantly, I will be away for an important meeting for most of the day. 

Will look to buy on major spikes down

 

Wall St. Faces Stomach-Churning Swings as Economic Uncertainty Grows
A Volatile Week in the Markets

For stock investors in the United States, the political and economic outlooks have suddenly become ominous. More volatility could be in store this week.

 

https://www.nytimes....nomy-trade.html