14 replies to this topic

[MikeyG]

The market is very dependent on The Fed here......if they continue to raise, so does the market risk premium and stocks will continue to stall...

If they leave rates alone or only raise 25 basis points next year....we will see an upward trend toward 3000 SPX....

The Fed should live up to its duel mandate....while unemployment is at a historic low, we are not seeing major inflation pressures as indicated by the PPI yesterday.

Bottom line-/range continues as we wait on The Fed

[fib_1618]

Bottom line-/range continues as we wait on The Fed

 

Spot on.

 

Fib

[CLK]

But QE is being backed out of the market indefinitely regardless of rates.

[fib_1618]

But QE is being backed out of the market indefinitely regardless of rates.

 

Means little when the global markets are interconnected, no less, when the US economy is expanding.

 

Fib

[Data]

Between US, Japan, and Europe, they're financing 1.9 trillion dollars over the next year with only 450 billion dollars of QE.  It is essentially the reverse of 2016 and 2017.

[uburack]

 

Bottom line-/range continues as we wait on The Fed

 

Spot on.

 

Fib

 

 

Are there any specific dates or just in general? thanks fib

[fib_1618]

 

 

Bottom line-/range continues as we wait on The Fed

 

Spot on.

 

Fib

 

Are there any specific dates or just in general? thanks fib

 

 

Beginning the first week of September, the internals were indicating a corrective sequence was likely, This was finally confirmed by price the week of October 8th.

 

Currently, the internals are messy, so any kind of tradable bottom isn't likely until January.

 

In the last couple of weeks, the interest rate sensitive A/D lines have been improving to the point where the FED is likely to hold off on any further rate increases until June of next year after this month.

 

Municipal Bonds, in particular, have been very strong for the last 4 weeks as money searches out areas of better total return.

 

Fib

 

Edit: With the current trading quite large, and for the sake of clarity, a "tradable bottom" is more of a longer term nature...that of an uptrend...and specifically applied more to investors as opposed to traders.

Edited by fib_1618, 12 December 2018 - 10:48 AM.

[qqqqtrdr]

Hold on.....   The 4% up and 4% down swings in the market are affecting everyone idea of a bottom or not and frustrates both the Bulls and Bears who don't day trade on the 60 minute or less cycles...   It is very difficult to determine whether it is a top or bottom by itself, but given the bearishness of investors, it is most likely at bottom.     One thing for sure is the longer we have this spring back and forth action the bigger the move once it breaks either way...

[CLK]

I thought internals were supposed to be able to predict bull/bear changes in the long term way ahead of the fact, what happened to that ?

[tsharp]

The SP00s as I see them... IMHO, positive divergence of momentum against price strongly suggests a turn is coming soon...  the MA is 310 sma on the 240-min chart to approximate the 50 dma on the daily, which is where I think wave-b:e is going.

 

Edited by tsharp, 12 December 2018 - 01:26 PM.