16 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Basic TA 101 supports the continuation of ST and IT bullish stance:

a green daily candle with higher low, higher high, and higher close.

SPX gave up about 2/3 of the earlier gains but still managed to finish up by about half a percent. 

 

ST bullish unless SPX closes below 2621

 

IT bullish unless SPX closes below 2590

 

TIM is bullish: 

 

 

The above chart is from Nautilus Investment Research. It is a seasonality chart for the month of December, going back 91 years. The low for December according to this Seasonality chart is expected on the 15th, which is Saturday. The FOMC meeting occurs on December 18 and 19, next Tuesday and Wednesday. It appears the market is settling at a low, but may not come off this low until the FOMC meetings. Just food for thought. Putting it another way, if the market is near this level going into the FOMC meeting, then the catalysis for the rally could be the FOMC meeting.

The 3-day TRIN reached over 1.75 last Friday and a bullish sign. The last time the “3 day TRIN” came near 1.75 was at the February low. Today the Tick closed at -342 and yesterday the TRIN closed at 1.34, which is a bullish combination that shows panic is present and market bottoms on panic. If the markets sits here for the next couple of days, it may wait until the FOMC meet as a catalysis for the next rally to start. Whether the rally starts now or at FOMC meeting, the sentiment probabilities point bullish. From four weeks ago “Since 1950 the change from October low through year-end average=10.7% gain (with no losses) during mid term elections years (@theonedave). The 10.7% average from the October low would give a target near 289 on the SPY (2890 SPX).”

 

https://stockcharts....er-11-2018.html

[dTraderB]

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

 

 

VIX was down by ONLY 0.30

as EXTREME FEAR persists:

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/

[dTraderB]

It's  a critical juncture because the markets have rallied off a major swing low, clawed its way back above the important SPX 2640 level but has not been able to close above SPX 2700. 

 

Yesterday's SPX close is now the most recent swing high and the only direction for the market if there is a swing high in place is .....DOWN!

 

So, unless SPX can close above SPX 2640 and then take out yesterday's swing high the most likely path is down. 

 

Critical day for the markets. 

 

I still think SPX will finish above 2780 by end of December but factors & issues other than TA & FA appear to be more influential on the market. Hence, the wild swings and instability. 

[dTraderB]

Then, there is EUROPE:

 

 @Schuldensuehner

@Schuldensuehner

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#ECB has failed to boost inflation w/ massive QE program & negative rates. Probably #Eurozone is going into recession w/ rates still negative. Options for Draghi in another downturn are limited and unappetizing. https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article185426840/EZB-Sitzung-Im-schlechtesten-Moment-loest-Draghi-sein-Versprechen-ein.html?wtmc=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web … via @welt

11:04 PM - 12 Dec 2018

 

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[dTraderB]

When it reaches $6 there isn't much potential in selling since the breakup value is about $4

 

 Douglas Kass Retweeted

Jim Cramer‏Verified account @jimcramer 1h1 hour ago

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STOP TRADING! Tusa Goes from Sell to Hold $GE...the bottom is being put in. Congratulations to one of the most amazing, incredible calls of a lifetime, to sell GE... Steve Tusa from JP Morgan. Research at its best. Maybe best ever..

Edited by dTraderB, 13 December 2018 - 06:49 AM.

[dTraderB]

Keith McCullough‏Verified account 

@KeithMcCullough

 

 

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Cartoon of the Day: Bounce? https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/72096-cartoon-of-the-day-bounce?type=cartoons … via @hedgeye

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

From WSJ:

 

The eurozone’s economy notched its weakest quarterly growth since early 2013 in the three months through September, and some investors are concerned that U.S. growth may have peaked.

“The strength that we saw in the last two years is not there anymore,” said Michael Widmer, a commodities strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Large parts of the global economy are now in a challenging environment.”

A stronger dollar has also weighed on commodities, which are denominated in the U.S. currency and become more expensive to foreign investors when the dollar appreciates. The WSJ Dollar Index is up more than 5% this year, boosted by higher interest rates and expectations that the U.S. economy will suffer less than others from trade frictions.

Further declines in commodity prices would be an unwelcome development for emerging-market countries like iron ore exporter Australia, and Brazil, which produces oil and sugar.

Still, some investors believe an end to the drop may be in sight, heartened by recent trade progress. Other analysts think the Federal Reserve may signal a new wait-and-see approach to tightening monetary policy after a widely-expected rate increase next week, potentially causing a pullback in the dollar.

Market Facts

• The Dow industrials have swung at least 500 points intraday five times this month, after posting an at least 500-point gap between their high and low five times each in October and November, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The index had no such swings between June and August and logged seven in February, its high for the year. 
   
• The British pound rose 1.1% against the dollar Wednesday, its best day since Nov. 1, though it remains down more than 6.5% for the year. Wednesday's rise came as British Prime Minister Theresa May beat back a leadership challenge, quelling a rebellion within her party that left the route to Brexit unclear.
   
• On this day in 1961, the longest bull market ever for the Dow industrials ground to a halt. The index peaked at 734.91, up 0.89 point for the day and 355% for the previous 12 1/2 years. Within six months, the Dow would bottom at 535.76, a 27% plunge. The blue-chip index closed at 24527.27 Wednesday.

 

[dTraderB]

Douglas Kass‏Verified account @DougKass

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In support of a year end rally, from Peter Boockvar: "While there wasn't much change in yesterday's II stock market sentiment data, the AAII measure of individual investor sentiment got really scared. Bulls fell by a large 17 pts w/o/w to 20.9. That is the least amount of Bulls

4:18 AM - 13 Dec 2018 from West Palm Beach, FL

 

[dTraderB]

How will the addicted react ....

 

ECB announces the end of crisis-era stimulus; holds interest rates

• The ECB's governing council confirmed they will stop expanding quantitative easing (QE) from the end of December — when bond purchases will fall from 15 billion euros a month to zero.
• It marks a historic moment for the ECB, as President Mario Draghi dismantles one of his most contentious policies.

https://www.cnbc.com...th-worries.html

[dTraderB]

dam! should have bought much more yesterday!  GE up 10% in pre-market trade

 

General Electric Company

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NYSE: GE

6.71 USD −0.050 (0.74%)

Closed: 13 Dec, 7:55 am GMT-5 · Disclaimer

Pre-market 7.42 +0.71 (10.58%)