10 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

It's been a Bear Market in China For a long time now... and it looks like this is ready to go for 2000 support...

 

 

 

[SemiBizz]

Let's dial back into 2015 on the TT Board...

 

NAV 8/1/2015

 

A break below 3373 would mean the start of a bear market and time to get the hell out of all investments. It's sort of like breaking SPX 1370 in 2008. A break below 3373 would mean China is headed to a economic depression.          

 

[SemiBizz]

SemiBizz 08/01/2015

 

( I was flying back from Shanghai when I wrote this)

 

I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills. Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers. It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.

 

 

And if history is any guide, Shanghai is quiet tonight, there's nothing worse than the shame of losing one's fortune... What people may forget is that China cheered on the rally, introduced margin accounts to them and their gambling impulses took over... and look we never got back up there, so there was no recovery for these consumers...

 

And now, it's going to get worse.

[tsharp]

I concur with your assessment... they've been in a bear market since 2007 and I see wave-c:c:II somewhere between 1600-2000...

 

[SemiBizz]

I always believed that markets were a fair mechanism for discounting future events...but just exactly HOW did the China Markets know that their WORST NIGHTMARE OF ALL TIMES was coming?  6/15/2015 was the TOP !!!

 

[redfoliage2]

US bear market started Oct. 2018 ........

[robo]

US bear market started Oct. 2018 ........

What indicators do you use for that opinion, and what indicators will you use to confirm that Oct 2018 was the start of the Bear Market?  I use lower highs for IWM?  What are you using?

Thanks!

 

Edited by robo, 16 December 2018 - 02:10 PM.

[CLK]

What amazes me is no one out there even considers the possibility that US markets could go into a 20-30 bear market, like the Nikkei did.

 

It doesn't matter if the fundamentals are different, they always are, it will be something different that takes it down. Maybe a great repricing lower of everything to bring the cost of living in line with wages, that have been kept by the 1% for the last 50 years.

Edited by CLK, 16 December 2018 - 02:31 PM.

[redfoliage2]

I dont use any quantitative indicators. Its just my guts feeling on the market behavior. We dont have to wait for major indices to tank 20% to believe its a bear market. A bear market starts from down 1%. Nevertheless many individual stocks already down 20% and it has been more than two months and the situation is not getting better.

[robo]

I dont use any quantitative indicators. Its just my guts feeling on the market behavior. We dont have to wait for major indices to tank 20% to believe its a bear market. A bear market starts from down 1%. Nevertheless many individual stocks already down 20% and it has been more than two months and the situation is not getting better.

Thanks. I use lower highs so I will be watching that in the months ahead. I'll be trading VXF in the weeks ahead for ST positions. 

 

Waiting to see how this plays out. 

 

Edited by robo, 16 December 2018 - 03:20 PM.