254 replies to this topic

[Waver]

Thanks!

[EntropyModel]

Welcome Waver.

 

This looks like a pesky 'b' wave here ...not 'ii' ...so i expect another run down 'at some point' -  a break of 2632 'b' can be done, but,

it can 'pesky' its way longer/higher (as said 2648 KP above)..but i'm looking for 'c' down to 2600 maybe 2580 next 1-3 sessions.  As it stands likely another

run to new bounce highs from there unless ST LQ goes to down pulse.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 24 January 2019 - 10:59 AM.

[kaiser soze]

Today is shaping up to be a NR7-type inside day on many indices and ETFs, but this could resolve into a big move after the senate votes.  My read is that a sudden re-appearance of massively bearish retail and hedge fund sentiment following Tuesday's decline, is preventing further market downside.  

[EntropyModel]

Today is shaping up to be a NR7-type inside day on many indices and ETFs, but this could resolve into a big move after the senate votes.  My read is that a sudden re-appearance of massively bearish retail and hedge fund sentiment following Tuesday's decline, is preventing further market downside.  

 

Interesting Kaiser, where are u seeing massively bearish retail sentiment? i'm seeing the exact opposite (put/call, proprietary signals), and that is where the buying is coming on my

signals ..from retail, with sell programs selling into it i.e. distribution.

[EntropyModel]

Welcome Waver.

 

This looks like a pesky 'b' wave here ...not 'ii' ...so i expect another run down 'at some point' -  a break of 2632 'b' can be done, but,

it can 'pesky' its way longer/higher (as said 2648 KP above)..but i'm looking for 'c' down to 2600 maybe 2580 next 1-3 sessions.  As it stands likely another

run to new bounce highs from there unless ST LQ goes to down pulse.

 

Failed @2648 exactly - broke  2632 so 'b' done OR 'a' of 'b' ...support @ 2620 here ...below that odds increase of break to 2600...

Edited by Entropy3.0, 24 January 2019 - 01:14 PM.

[kaiser soze]

Entropy:  I have seen some humongous Long Put and Put Spread trades that have been put on in major ETFs and select stocks since late Friday afternoon.  Only hedge funds have the wherewithal to put up this kind of premium (millions to tens of millions of dollars) and the bravado to risk the entire premium paid (I seriously doubt these are hedges).  ISE options index indicates very bearish sentiment.  $CPCI (CBOE) is also quite elevated.  CNN Fear and Greed Index is at 55 -neutral, the highest it has been since October, if I recall correctly.  

 

Putting aside Retail, the key question is whether the gunslinging non-quant hedge funds are "Smart Money" or NOT.  The algos win most of the time, but sometimes the Hedgies can eke out a win when they act together as a group. 

[EntropyModel]

Thanks Kaiser for the detailed explanation, helps alot to see different perspectives. 

Yeah - on hedgies, I wd say mostly they are momentum trend algo's i.e. they jump on and extend trends to 'max extreme' - so not 'smart' as in picking turns but 'smart' as in making money LOL

[EntropyModel]

 

Welcome Waver.

 

This looks like a pesky 'b' wave here ...not 'ii' ...so i expect another run down 'at some point' -  a break of 2632 'b' can be done, but,

it can 'pesky' its way longer/higher (as said 2648 KP above)..but i'm looking for 'c' down to 2600 maybe 2580 next 1-3 sessions.  As it stands likely another

run to new bounce highs from there unless ST LQ goes to down pulse.

 

Failed @2648 exactly - broke  2632 so 'b' done OR 'a' of 'b' ...support @ 2620 here ...below that odds increase of break to 2600...

 

 

'c' of b highest odds back to gap close/highs ...then shd be C down to 2600 .....else if makes new highs (lower odds) cd be Vth wave but doesn't lk right to me..

I am out biking today  - shd find out by the close ...if 'c' of b we will drop back into this gap.  All looks like x-games to me here.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 25 January 2019 - 09:54 AM.

[Waver]

Wave C down from 2 Friday's ago (Jan 19th)?

[EntropyModel]

Wave C down from 2 Friday's ago (Jan 19th)?

 

Yep - following the ABC setup to the letter so far. There is always a chance it morph's but this is still highest odds setup.