This is a nice start - need to take out 2685, then key one for me is 2670, that wd give me swing price sell confirmation.
Intermediate Trend commentary
Posted 07 February 2019 - 11:30 AM
Posted 11 February 2019 - 05:32 PM
How you think this week turns out?
I still lean Short Term bearish - I think the swing high is medium odds in for while on SPX, though I cannot rule out a retest/marginal new high,
until 2670 is broken ( as said previously). Tomorrow should add clarity to the ST setups ( hopefully)
Edited by Entropy3.0, 11 February 2019 - 05:32 PM.
Posted 13 May 2019 - 05:20 PM
About to go parabolic!?
It's going to be close I think, whether we get a pullback first to shake the bull bus which is getting very overcrowded or not.
tomorrow looks key - if it doesn't reverse down tomorrow, and or breaks about 2750 (closing value) then I'd lean no pullback before going
parabolic. the RTE ( reversion to extreme) gives me a projection of 3500 on the SPX for the move this year if that is the case, unless
ST LQ reverse down before that breach. The difficulty is, as explained, it all relies on LQ and no TA is relevant, so for all I know,
we breach 2750, close above it ..the FED reverse LQ and we collapse ...so as said, prediction is kinda moot, but, since i'm not
privy the FED's intensions, and can only guess, based on the historic intervention it would be fairly insane for them to reverse it down again,
but if they do, I will get heads up on the LQ.
Haven't posted any updates, because LQ has remained 'high' - I'll show chart later i.e. market has been as expected push up on LQ.
However TWO developments finally since FED week Wed
1. The parabolic run was rejected on my system on wed - ie. the run to 3500 ..its not 'off' ..it may just be delayed, more below on that.
2. We are currently in first LQ Neg/sell signal since Dec low - WOW, incredible amount of LQ ..as much as 2009 low ...usually, I wd say, this
is infact 'new bull marrket', and we just completed first leg, that is one setup here.
However, we need to see now, how market finally trades with its 'safety' off - without artificial LQ GSB support ...so far, its not good.
So we are now in decision window - for
- either a basing range period from ATH to a fib retrace of move off DEC low over next 3months or so ...before parabolic move to 3500 or possibly 5000 ( over next 3 years)
- a major failure, there is pattern setup here I call 'shock and awe' ..and so far, its tracking ...and would be very bearish alas.
So, its a case of seeing how the LQ SELL plays out here and If/when next LQ support comes back in.
Market currently is a 'reprice zone' , where its in danger of large multi day drop ...if that is avoided, it wd favor the basing move a little....but the trading environment
completely changed FED day, with a massive reversal on LQ .i.e. someone finally pressed the reverse button LOL