15 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

It has to be one of the two  and I still believe it is hammering out a bottom. 

 

I want to buy a few more CALLS and hold NQ Long Futures before the FED announcement

 

The FED will be dovish, or interpreted to be so, at least that will be the initial reaction.

 

The problems facing the market now will be whittled away by the next day or two  - dovish FED and Budget shutdown averted.

 

However, the market is facing a longer term GROWTH problem (economy, earnings etc) and will be under tremendous pressure in 2019.

 

My equilibrium SPX range is 2700 to 2750 but this will change as issues are resolved and more crop up.

 

Today was one of the busiest for a long time as I was trading NQ Futures and also got caught up in daytrading SPY options. 

 

Last trading day for me for 2018 is tomorrow; after that, I may adjust positions etc but no daytrading. 

[dTraderB]

As I said, these ST issues will be whittled away or finessed, like this one:

 

Trump retreats on shutdown In a swift reversal, the White House on Tuesday dropped its demand that a government funding measure include $5 billion for President Trump’s wall on the Mexican border. 

 

https://thehill.com/...ats-on-shutdown

[dTraderB]

• The ‘smart money’ is the most bearish on stocks since 2008, with ‘recession coming,’ BofA survey finds
• Druckenmiller warns that the stock market is one big ‘mirage’ right now
• Nigam Arora: This positive data point says Santa may arrive at the stock market after all
• Mark Hulbert: Santa Claus is coming to Wall Street — after Christmas
• A ‘dirty’ rally is taking shape as the stock market is heavily oversold

[dTraderB]

MARKETSTECHNICAL ANALYSIS

This Market Indicator Says Stocks Might Be Getting Closer to a Bottom

On Monday, the put/call ratio finally spiked.

FEAR & GREED

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/

 

[dTraderB]

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

"While I like these discounts, the looming Christmas and New Years holidays complicate the situation. What would normally be an attractive buying opportunity might struggle to get off the ground since big money is leaving for vacation. That puts impulsive retail investors in charge and that is rarely a good thing. Luckily, these little guys have small accounts and their emotional buying and selling doesn’t go very far. We saw the emotional selling from Thanksgiving week erased the following week when big money returned to work. And the same could happen here.

Most likely the market will muddle into year end and the bigger bounce won’t happen until January. That is if nothing significant occurs between now and then. The one big thing that could happen is the Fed backing away from the widely expected rate hike on Wednesday. That would send the market surging higher. But if that doesn’t happen, expect the market to muddle along between 2,500 and 2,600 for the next two weeks. After that, if the financial world doesn’t collapse, expect the market to recover from these oversold levels as reality turn out far less bad than feared.

In my long-term investments, I love buying these discounts and hope prices fall even further so I can buy even more. In my shorter-term trading account, I would rather be buying these discounts than selling them, but I’m not eager to rush in ahead of what could be a volatile holiday."

https://cracked.mark...ything-changed/

[dTraderB]

Douglas Kass‏Verified account @DougKass 2h2 hours ago

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accumulating fundamental negatives (that we have been expecting).

 

Trading opportunistically, often against the machines and not getting emotional.

 

This is not a mkt for old men, for dogma or for the buy and hold crowd. @jimcramer @tomkeene @TeamCavuto

 

A Bear Market probably

[dTraderB]

Tom McClellan‏ @McClellanOsc

FollowFollow @McClellanOsc

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DJIA 3-month drawdown.

9:58 PM - 17 Dec 2018

 

[dTraderB]

Keith McCullough‏Verified account @KeithMcCullough 2h2 hours ago

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FX: consensus trade is hoping Powell is Dovish Enough, selling USD and buying stocks pre #FOMC

[dTraderB]

Mee too, but trimming SPY Call positions

 

Douglas Kass‏Verified account @DougKass 33m33 minutes ago

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On @realmoney Lonely, I am Mr. Lonely I am feeling lonely leaning to the bull side - which might be a "good thing." Nice bounce off my 2550 low on the S&P - but its going to be a long (and lonely) day. I am away from home through no wish from my own. That's why I am lonely.