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Bear Update


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#1 RagingSpartan

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 08:27 AM

It doesn't matter what the fed says or does. The end result will be the same. We are heading lower.

#2 LMF

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 09:14 AM

The problem is bear markets don't go down in a straight line, and this one has been below zero on MACD going past 2.5 months.  And the forever bet on the downside rarely ever works, particularly with a wide range of non-stock market charts that don't even look close to 2008 recessionary levels yet.  It's bearish looking on the stock side, but not any where else.  Conference board LEI and CEI is the main one.....it can't be outsmarted.



#3 RagingSpartan

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 10:02 AM

Small caps not buying the nonsense again this morning. It's a tell again.

#4 LMF

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 10:15 AM

I heard yesterday the odds for a Fed rate hike today were around 70 percent......not even close to normal for a hike which should be above 90 percent.



#5 beta

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 01:13 PM

Bounce is over IMHO.   Much weaker than expected -- to be expected in a Bear market.

 

Re-short from SP 2570.   Stop 2592.


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#6 beta

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 01:16 PM

Another possibility is that SP tags 2545 (neutral) and attempts another bounce higher.   60-min T/L resistance now at 2587 and falling.


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#7 beta

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 01:47 PM

Closing shorts @ 2572, and watching for Fed reaction.

 

Above SP 2595 targets the 12/13 gap @ 2650.   


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#8 beta

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 07:19 PM

Post-market update:  today's break below 2530 confirms:

 

(1)  Bully has left the building

(2)  Wave 3 count is in play - targets 2468, then 2345

 

My e-wave count is valid so long as SP remains < 2604.   


Edited by beta, 19 December 2018 - 07:20 PM.

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