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Bear Update - Crash


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#1 RagingSpartan

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Posted 22 December 2018 - 03:41 PM

We are in full crash mode now. Forced liquidations. Risk is very high over the next 2-6 days. SPX downside potential in this window is between 5-10%. Potential for Russell to hit the 1160 level in this timeframe.

#2 SemiBizz

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Posted 22 December 2018 - 05:09 PM

Somebody send you a copy of my forecast today?

 

From Monday's RUT Forecast:

 

RUT - POSSIBLE VERY DANGEROUS FALL AHEAD - so we use HISTORY in our forecasting... because of our firm beliefs about prices, price ranges and price behavior... it's not a science, to say the least, but at the crux of everything is SUPPORT and RESISTANCE... and our problem now.. with Friday's Close of 1292.09 is that we have a SLIP ZONE of UNSTABLE PRICES just underneath here that could result in an ADDITIONAL FAST MARKET DECLINE (CRASH) down to 1156-60 area...Essentially TESTING THE INITIAL TRUMP RALLY RUN UP... perhaps apropos... you decide.

 


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#3 Waver

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Posted 22 December 2018 - 06:23 PM

Do you both see at least a bounce Monday to sell/short into?

#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 22 December 2018 - 06:45 PM

More From RUT Forecast:

 

We probably need a bounce here to rebuild short interest, but that could be why it continues down here, because not enough short interest... that happens.  So without any reason at all to believe this can do anything but go lower, we respect the market, so at any time from these oversold conditions we cannot rule out anything, and that includes a ban on short-selling whatever it takes to get the selling to stop.  So we hope for a bounce, be good for all parties, but we may not get it.

 


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#5 Waver

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Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:18 PM

Thanks for your insight

#6 kaiser soze

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Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:38 PM

Thanks Semi and RS.  It is a dangerous juncture alright. 

 

A lot of chartwatchers including myself see the first possibility of a major bounce from SPX 2385/NQ 6031.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that many who were previously steadfastly short have booked profits and are tempted to go long or have just done so.  Others who were waiting out the decline on the sidelines have just gone long or are seriously considering doing so.  Precise for this reason, it may be Mr. Market's last chance to wound even those who are mostly unscathed by this decline or are even profitable. 

 

My plan at Friday's close was to initiate a moderate size long position in the overnight trading (front-run morning buyers).  But looking at the charts this Saturday, there is no confirmation that a Wave 3 of 3 EW decline has ended. The high-flying tech names, where I suspect most leverage was employed, such as CRM, WDAY, NOW, VMW, ADBE, COUP, SPLK, etc have still not broken below their late October lows.  Although the FAANG+ names have. 



#7 RagingSpartan

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Posted 23 December 2018 - 12:42 PM

Extremely dangerous market here. A managed crash is a real possibility.

#8 tommyt

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Posted 23 December 2018 - 12:43 PM

"We are in full crash mode now. Forced liquidations. Risk is very high over the next 2-6 days. SPX downside potential in this window is between 5-10%. Potential for Russell to hit the 1160 level in this timeframe."

 

Raging, you have been right on. Its already a crash, just an orderly one day after day...not the 1 day whoosh that one usually expects.

Another 4 days of 3%-4%/day in RUT and it would be near your 1160 target...are you saying you think it will now do a 1 day bigger move crash? This seems to be a "perfect storm" into year end, with 4 1/2 trading days left on the calendar. I am very close to taking a shot at some longs if more down this week.


Edited by tommyt, 23 December 2018 - 12:43 PM.


#9 tradesurfer

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Posted 23 December 2018 - 05:51 PM

Roger that. RS has been quite consistent recently.  The only thing I am surprised RS has not called for is a big gap down Monday followed by a flush down with minimal or almost no intra day trace back upwards.



#10 tradesurfer

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Posted 23 December 2018 - 05:58 PM

anyone know what the record number of straight down days has been in the SPX .  I think like 11 or 12 maybe ?