This coming week, the highest risk windows for a turn or acceleration of the current trend occur on Tuesday the 25th (afternoon Monday and Wednesday morning market-wise) and Friday the 28th. Strange that the risk cycles point to Christmas day, but the same thing appears to be happening on New Year's day too.
Last week's risk window on Thursday the 20th on the surface looks like a garden variety dud. It wasn't a turn up and the daily candle wasn't that much longer than other recent ones, so not an acceleration day down either, but, it was such a strong signal that I have a paranoid induced concern that something else was going on. What would one do if one had bottomless pockets and wanted to let the air out of the bubble, but not burst the bubble causing panic? Wouldn't one let down days occur, but limit them to just painful, not horrifying. I propose that Thursday was set up to be a horrifying, 3 of a 3, white knuckle kind of down day, but "someone" stepped in with bids when it was starting to get out of hand. I hate to sound like a tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorist, but where are the big gaps down, where are the long red candles? With POTUS threatening to fire Powell, maybe the big red candles will be stocking stuffers in the upcoming Christmas week risk windows, but if even that little threat fails to light a fire, you've got to admit that something strange is going on.
If everything this coming week is all smiles and eggnog, maybe last Thursday the 20th was "the" acceleration day of this kinder and gentler 3rd wave. The acceleration day of the 3rd wave typically occurs more or less in the middle of the move, so that forecasts a bottom for this wave at roughly DJIA 20,000. A nice round number.
Regards and Merry Christmas,
Douglas