6 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

This coming week, the highest risk windows for a turn or acceleration of the current trend occur on Tuesday the 25th (afternoon Monday and Wednesday morning market-wise) and Friday the 28th.  Strange that the risk cycles point to Christmas day, but the same thing appears to be happening on New Year's day too.  

 

Last week's risk window on Thursday the 20th on the surface looks like a garden variety dud.  It wasn't a turn up and the daily candle wasn't that much longer than other recent ones, so not an acceleration day down either, but, it was such a strong signal that I have a paranoid induced concern that something else was going on.  What would one do if one had bottomless pockets and wanted to let the air out of the bubble, but not burst the bubble causing panic?  Wouldn't one let down days occur, but limit them to just painful, not horrifying.  I propose that Thursday was set up to be a horrifying, 3 of a 3, white knuckle kind of down day, but "someone" stepped in with bids when it was starting to get out of hand.  I hate to sound like a tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theorist, but where are the big gaps down, where are the long red candles?  With POTUS threatening to fire Powell, maybe the big red candles will be stocking stuffers in the upcoming Christmas week risk windows, but if even that little threat fails to light a fire, you've got to admit that something strange is going on.

 

If everything this coming week is all smiles and eggnog, maybe last Thursday the 20th was "the" acceleration day of this kinder and gentler 3rd wave.  The acceleration day of the 3rd wave typically occurs more or less in the middle of the move, so that forecasts a bottom for this wave at roughly DJIA 20,000.  A nice round number.  

 

Regards and Merry Christmas,

Douglas

[AChartist]

The dow log looked down then flatish for a year and up in about 5 quarters.

The rut weekly looked like late Dec to mid Jan low.

 

Unfortunately a bought alot in the last lows, now figure on cost averaging in with 401k for the year and it might be real good, real good, after one year.

but I was heavy cash and missed 1st half of it down. Last I said it looked like about 65-75% of the way down so I knew the risk was there.

 

What is most likely happening is the fed is being replaced and powell is helping set it up politically. I will see what cycles look like but really when down

cant anticipate cycles can extend or truncate, external inputs and these inputs are intended to end the fed.

 

At a time when real economy is growing, like manufacturing actual producing something that values a currency, is the only time it could happen this way.

Opposite all previous middle class depopulation crash technologies. Trust the plan.

Edited by AChartist, 23 December 2018 - 06:38 AM.

[AChartist]

full backtest of dow log detrended breakout could be 18000 Dow in 4-5 quarters.

 

4 year cycle low is the one in 5 quarters, there are up cycles, 85 year just turning up, 105 year monstrous high in 7 years

(might have to call it quits early 2025)

Edited by AChartist, 23 December 2018 - 08:22 AM.

[Douglas]

Oooh, I love to talk cycles.  My favorite, the 12 year has been missing in action all year until just recently and was presumed dead or at least mortally wounded by the evil ZIRP.  

 

The 12 year cycle turns were really good times to buy stocks since Eisenhower was in office:  1958, 1970, 1982, 1994 and 2006 (which was OK it you sold next year in 2007).  If it is still in play,  12 plus 2006 is of course 2018 which means a bargain should be at hand in the next few days IF ZIRP has not distorted the cycle. Unfortunately that IF is a big one.  The lowest interest rates (ZIRP) since Romans were running the island that I live on have distorted just about every asset market. It wouldn't shock me at all if this 12 year turn is not distorted. 

 

You probably noticed that I started bragging about the 12 cycle in 1958.  The previous 1946 12 year cycle turn was a terrible time to buy stocks because I believe the cycle was distorted by the government manipulation of interest rates during the depression and WWII.  Maybe the cycle will reset in early 2019, roughly on schedule if  the un-fired Powell is permitted to finish what he started and kill the evil ZIRP.  A normalized interest rate environment might just Phoenix the 12 year cycle back to its former glory. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Douglas]

I just clued into the fact that the NYSE is closed Monday afternoon, so the risk window, I guess should open near the close of trading Monday and close on Wednesday  before the traders all go out to lunch at Delmonico's on Beaver St. 

 

Regards,

Douglas 

[Douglas]

The DJIA just closed on the low in the risk window, so no turn, so far.  The risk window doesn't close, as noted in the first note above, until about lunch time on Boxing Day, so there's still time yet for a turn, or, for this to be confirmed as an acceleration event.  It sure is starting to look like an acceleration event with the opening gap down today, but the real test comes on Wednesday.  For an acceleration event to claim the roses for this risk window, Wednesday would need to be a really nasty, long red candle.

 

So, the bubble might be leaking loudly, but there hasn't been a bang sound, yet, despite the POTUS poking it with his big sharp twitter pin all weekend - no really exceptionally long red candle today.  The Level 1 NYSE 7% decline trading halt circuit breaker would require a drop of about 1500 DJIA points.  That's a baton rouge that I can respect. Given the look of things, I suspect the PPT will come out with both guns blazing bright and early Wednesday morning, so any hope of a cathartic event clearing stops is probably misplaced at best, and potentially risky strategy at worst.  Gees, I sure miss the days of a somewhat free market.  Life in the Matrix is certainly duller.

 

Have a very Merry Christmas,

Douglas

[qqqqtrdr]

I was in cash as well and bought at the beginning of December...   I've been hit hard, but spread some out in Bonds and invested more in Emerging, so I wasn't hit as hard of those invested in US equities, but I did have small cap investments as well.   I do have my leading charts ( Short Term ) all saying BUY, and my long term lagging charts are SELL...   Last week the market valuation of S&P500 finally became neutrally valued as far as price per earnings..   Let's see what happens...   We need some good news to start the bullish run, we seem to be getting bad news every three days..    My charts are soooo short term overbought, it will take a week of trading before it comes back to neutral, meaning a one or two day wonder bounce is unlikely...   However, it will likely take 2 weeks before my Long term charts come off a SELL signal, if the market rises.

 

qqqqtrdr