10 replies to this topic

[KCScott]

https://www.yahoo.co...topstories.html

 

best way to cause a panic is to say there's no reason to panic....

 

 

 

[q4wer]

Whoever played fire first got burned first. the rage is from the God. 

[Dex]

The Fed Reserve started these stock market highs - it is responsible for the the declines.

 

Raising rates and lowering the balance sheet is foolish.

 

All else is noise.

 

Look for a bottom when the Fed stops the raises.

[MaryAM]

Munchin can't do anything because he has no control over the money supply and neither does the Fed in reality.  I follow money - specifically the money multiplier M2/monetary base. It moves real slow.    In 1930 it was 10.6, in 1940 it was 4.5, in 1985 it was 12.1 (highest under the current system) today it is 4.27 - lower than in 1940.  I will say it once again - this is signaling hyperdeflation - and it will be much worse than during the great depression this time.  We have never really come out of the last financial crises - because the FED in its stupidity bought private debt, which has never been done in the history of the FED.   All that did was make money for the theives involved in MBS stuff (some, much, no one knows, how much is backed by fake paper but the fed bought it anyway and some US agency insured it without dotting i's and crossing t's).  There is no liquidity in the system right now for the PPT to work with - any attempt to print their way out will mean the end of our currency as we know it and the FED.  And all the thieves once again already have their ill gotten gains out of the market - and your left holding the bag.  

[Data]

The stock market is essentially doing the same thing the last several times the government issued 1.5 trillion dollars in debt while the Fed let debt mature off its balance sheet.  This leg down has almost accomplished in about 12 days what it took 19 days in September to October. Apparently, the balance sheet normalization had to be agreed to in order for the entire committee to sign off on the extension of QE out to the end of 2014.  If this decline is of short duration, such as 1987, it probably has limited impact on the economy.

Edited by Data, 24 December 2018 - 01:40 PM.

[KCScott]

From Dec. 18:  https://www.hsh.com/...al-reserve.html

 

 

At the close of its December meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to increase the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, targeting a 2.25% to 2.5% range for the key policy rate. It is the highest such level since early 2008.

While lifting the federal funds rate, the Fed essentially reiterated its characterization of the economy from the last meeting, noting "the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate." Continued economic improvement was again acknowledged in "Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year."

With inflation holding near the Fed's target there was little new to be said, but it was again noted that "On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."

There was a key change to the language used to describe the future path of monetary policy. In September and November, the Fed noted that "The Committee expects that further gradual increases" were likely to occur in the period ahead; coupled with projections from members, markets took this to mean a move at this meeting and perhaps three in 2019. The new statement referenced that, rather than expecting to lift rates "The Committee judges that some (emphasis ours) further gradual increases" will be likely.

 

While Housing isn't mentioned, In my area there isn't enough housing supply to meet demand and I do foresee a real estate bubble pop in 3-5 years. 

 

If I was a conspiracy theorist (which I'm not), it would almost seem there's forces trying to drive this market and the economy into recession ahead of the next election cycle..... 

Edited by KCScott, 24 December 2018 - 01:46 PM.

[q4wer]

All post election gains will be wiped out,  I guess.   2083. There is only less than 300 points to go.  

[KCScott]

2150 Was my guesstimate for the starting level of substantial support .... the 17/43 EMA death cross has a long way to go before it flattens or turns 

 

Edited by KCScott, 24 December 2018 - 01:57 PM.

[CLK]

Munchin can't do anything because he has no control over the money supply and neither does the Fed in reality.  I follow money - specifically the money multiplier M2/monetary base. It moves real slow.    In 1930 it was 10.6, in 1940 it was 4.5, in 1985 it was 12.1 (highest under the current system) today it is 4.27 - lower than in 1940.  I will say it once again - this is signaling hyperdeflation - and it will be much worse than during the great depression this time.  We have never really come out of the last financial crises - because the FED in its stupidity bought private debt, which has never been done in the history of the FED.   All that did was make money for the theives involved in MBS stuff (some, much, no one knows, how much is backed by fake paper but the fed bought it anyway and some US agency insured it without dotting i's and crossing t's).  There is no liquidity in the system right now for the PPT to work with - any attempt to print their way out will mean the end of our currency as we know it and the FED.  And all the thieves once again already have their ill gotten gains out of the market - and your left holding the bag.  

 

 

 

If the currency is about to be devalued, why is the dollar going up ?  I agree about hyperdeflation though,  you can already see it in oil and gas, next is housing and then food.

[tommyt]

First they jawbone to try and prop up mkts, then they use the PPT more aggressively (buying futures in the middle of the night to keep from crashing on opens), to finally taking desperate actions like banning short selling short term, central bank manipulation, and lowering interest rates.