Member
Posted 26 December 2018 - 12:48 PM
My data on AAII and TSP bull & bear sentiment figures stretches back donkey's years. The current peak for AAII bears is 47.3%. In the last "real" bear market ending in 2009 the bear peak was 70.3%. The current TSP sentiment peak is 52% bears. The 2009 bear market peak was 64%. So far in this sell off there may have been correction fear, but definitely not bear market terror. Either the worst is probably yet to come or the Christmas buy the dippers are going to be big winners.
Regards,
Douglas
Member
Posted 26 December 2018 - 01:33 PM
500 pts up and this is all?? https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/
Member
Posted 26 December 2018 - 03:45 PM
It looks like "a" if not "the" low occurred in this Christmas risk window near the close on Monday. The risk window this coming Friday the 28th, should be very important for the stopped out bears. The next sentiment survey results should also be very interesting. If the bears completely throw in the towel, then I would think that the dark side may yet have hope for redemption in the weeks ahead.
Regards,
Douglas
lasergirl
Posted 26 December 2018 - 03:53 PM
Back in short SPX 2450. May get to SPX 2570 early tomorrow AM. IMHO one more wave down to go.
Edited by beta, 26 December 2018 - 03:54 PM.
Member
Posted 27 December 2018 - 03:20 AM
As I rather clumsily tried to explain and Don alluded to above, the sentiment response to this rally may provide some clue as to whether this selloff was just a detour on the road to Nirvana or the start of something much more sinister. Unfortunately the holidays will distort the survey results. Hopefully they'll be at least clear enough to shed some light on either bear paw tracks or bloody evidence of his untimely demise. Given the bore of the PPT's gun and the new scope they got for Christmas, a mort subite is probably the best the poor ursine beast can hope for.
Regards,
Douglas
lasergirl
Posted 27 December 2018 - 04:14 PM
I believe the IT trend remains down. We likely will complete the 3rd leg of this corrective uptrend by late Friday AM. Staying short hedged w/ near-term calls.
Member
Posted 27 December 2018 - 05:27 PM
being bearish is easy...anybody can do it watch the sky ...a once in a life time move that started in 09 has finished a breather.....the next leg up will be faster and bigger than the one that started in 09 ....so it is written the dows divisor (now a multiplier) makes it inevitable....675 0n0
