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McClellan's "10-1 UP VOLUME DAY" marked the ST bottom


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 09:14 PM

A 5% UP day with 10-1 UP volume on Wednesday, after an almost 20% decline from the historic top of this ageing bull market, signaled at least a ST bottom. 

 

From a TA aspect, that should be the ST & IT bottom but this market has also been affected and influenced by political issues so nothing can be taken fro granted; however, today's massive intra day reversal, 800 plus DOW points, is another indication the market has made a ST bottom and will probably reach SPX 2580 by the end of 2018.

 

My probable path is up for at least a few days, sharp pullbacks & rallies, and then down again in January. 

 

A new 24-month low is quite possible in early January.

 

Tom McClellan: Finally a 10-1 Up Volume Day
Tom McClellan |  December 27, 2018 at 04:57 PM

 

154595801620253131656.gif

The big bounce day on Dec. 26, 2018 saw NYSE Up Volume of more than 10x the amount of Down Volume, distinguishing it as a “10-1 Up Volume Day.” These are pretty special days, because they do not come along very often. They are also special because the interpretation of what one of them means depends on the context in which it appears.

 

https://stockcharts....volume-day.html

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 09:15 PM

TIM ORD bullish;

15458459124581366954647.gifAbove is the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) bull-bear ratio. Readings below .75 have marked intermediate-term lows going back 17 years, though the AAII bull-bear ratio being below .75 in 2008 didn’t seem to matter. The current ratio is .49.

1545845903116319697675.gifIt was a bullish sign for the market (short-term) when the TRIN closed >1.40 and the Ticks (within a day) closed <-500.  This combination has led to short-term lows within two trading days. The above chart goes back just 11 months and shows the times these parameters have been met, but we have records that go back 10 years. I might add that the higher the TRIN reading above 1.40 and the lower the Ticks reading below -500, the more bullish the implications; today’s TRIN closed at 2.02 and Ticks at -720.   Today’s reading suggests a bottom will form as early as today to as late as Thursday.

 

https://stockcharts....er-24-2018.html



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 09:19 PM

Opinion: This contrarian stock-market signal is flashing green

Sentiment indexes are among the lowest ever, signaling that stock-market timers remain extremely pessimistic

 

https://www.marketwa...reen-2018-12-27



#4 trioderob

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 09:26 PM

what a minute  - when I posted the fear / greed index at 3 a few days ago - nobody said anything or i was poo-pooped 



#5 Dex

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Posted 27 December 2018 - 09:38 PM

This analysis is aligns with several other posters.


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#6 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 11:41 AM

SPX Probability window by end of 2018 trading year

2580    65%

2380    35%



#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 12:15 PM

what a minute  - when I posted the fear / greed index at 3 a few days ago - nobody said anything or i was poo-pooped 

 

I saw and thought I noted this as bullish. In any case, I meant to comment.

 

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#8 dTraderB

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 03:10 PM

Took some SPY calls off the table

Will be a very erratic market during the next few weeks but quite tradeable!



#9 cycletimer

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Posted 28 December 2018 - 05:06 PM

Cycles point to a market turn January 8/9th, traders, take your pick if this will mark a high or low.....