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Dr. Steve Sjuggerud has been promoting melt up for the whole year ...


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#11 cycletimer

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Posted 29 December 2018 - 02:08 PM

so I'll switch cost averaging back to 100% cash now and start again in equity with next decline. should be able to let that run into 
 
equity up to late 2024 and then it may be real bad after that. What to do after that if the account is flush, pretty much screwed any way unless
 
a diversification like cryptos or gold works. I guess the main point is use it to pay off mortgage or other debts by 2025. I did buy two top end cars
 
figuring those will be the last for the rest of my life with up to 2025 to pay them off. I can keep a high end car 20 years the way I take care of them, 
 
crappy cars dont work when they have to be replaced in 5-8 years. But then in 10 years anything bought now will be obsoleted by electrics or something
 
screwed either way. But right now will attempt to use this year to accumulate cost averaging to make it all work by 2025 if my Dow qtrly works. And I took alot out of accounts
 
this year anticipating this. I was somewhat long but not alot of capital was in for this saw it coming. Also a substantial base in metals for diversification but you see,
 
possibly fake cia/wallstreet news, that they have a way to turn copper into gold now, which is a webbot forecast longer out and metals will have a finite life cycle too
 
possibly delayed until free energy and new electrics make it commercially competitive, screwed
 
about any way.
 
Armstrong is stating that this is a correction not bear mkt. I dont see his subscriber stuff so it is my own, for the decline to last most of this year.


Just curious...Where do you get equity prices up into 2024? What cycles are you following? I follow cycles also but not that far in distant future. Even if this is an accurate forecast (up into 2025), there will be major corrections (such as this current one) along the way. My cycles have us either already bottomed or bottoming by January 14/15 (at latest) followed by UP into Mar/April, followed by a big swing down (-20-30%) into early 2020. That’s as far out as I go and this could end up being wrong but it’s my guesstimate.

#12 AChartist

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Posted 29 December 2018 - 04:23 PM

there was a post from me a few days ago on the DOW log detrended quarterly.

I use log of monthly close for long term regression line starting 1890's period. calculate a detrended price of actual minus the regression.

filter it to every 3 months and analyze quarterly cycles on the detrended price line. because my fourier worksheet only handles 512 points 125 years that covers the time that I have dow data

since 1890's.

 

>>>

Just curious...Where do you get equity prices up into 2024? What cycles are you following? I follow cycles also but not that far in distant future. Even if this is an accurate forecast (up into 2025), there will be major corrections (such as this current one) along the way. My cycles have us either already bottomed or bottoming by January 14/15 (at latest) followed by UP into Mar/April, followed by a big swing down (-20-30%) into early 2020. That’s as far out as I go and this could end up being wrong but it’s my guesstimate.

<<<


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#13 pdx5

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Posted 29 December 2018 - 07:12 PM

Weren't the majority of advisors/traders doing the same ? I mean almost everyone was calling for new all time highs, buy the dips everything is still ok, 3500- 4200, wave 5 still yet to be fulfilled, ain't seen nothing yet, long way to go, smart money buy signal, sentiment too bearish, never been a top at these sentiment levels, impossible, majority are always wrong, global inflationary boom. And out of the majority that might have been concerned, now fully believe that this last bottom was the end to this "correction".

 

It was the same in 2008, right before the meltdown, you should go back and read the bottom picking posts here. There are far more perma bulls because that is what works most of the time, they would rather be wrong a small amount of the market's time and just buy the dip and wait for the downside to end than actually short the market.

Best post of the week, CLK!!


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#14 AChartist

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Posted 29 December 2018 - 09:39 PM

Hi pdx5

 

at 2008 low I posted this chart and said it should be the low on the regression line. At the time the pink regression line was moreso the exact low

 

when that was the end of the chart time. This week DOW dipped below 1st support line line an may have touched the 2nd nearby support line intraday.

 

Since I'm thinking more low later, it may rest on that 2nd support line mid year.

 

 

and before the 2008 decline I posted horrific NDX cycle charts, not saying it works all the time or I get it right all the time, sometimes uncanny.

 

 

https://i1129.photob...zpsbhuy6vyt.png


Edited by AChartist, 29 December 2018 - 09:41 PM.

"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan