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ST up, IT & LT down


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 08:06 AM

SPX 2448 to 2465 is the neutral zone, breakout above or below will determine the ST direction

 

LT is now down

 

IT lso down

 

This is SPX hourly, the daily range is too large for my ST systes, drilling down to hourly to get better analysis.

 

SPX has to close above 2518 on a daily basis to turn IT short to IT flat

 

SPX LT short will persist until SPX closes above 2585 on a daily basis

 

All the above changes every hour (ST) an every day (IT & LT), on a TA basis

 

On a political basis, it changes every second, or so it seems!

 

49485807_2382683621773514_40723958200690



#2 LMF

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 10:46 AM

NDX is heading for a massive engulfing stick on the quarterly chart for Q4.  A complete retest of the December lows will not be a surprise, whatever the timing on that may be.  This is all just more time to get the daily chart repaired before the markets can move onward.    



#3 LMF

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 03:52 PM

I started thinking about the bond market, and sure enough TLT has a PF target up at 143 right now.  My long term hack on the 30 year yield is eventually below 1.0 percent during the next recession, but right now the trendline looks like around 2%.



#4 beta

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 04:11 PM

Based on my review of Friday's intra-day charts, I believe SPX finished a complex correction.  The wave 4 pattern characteristics fit both the "rule of alternation" and correspond to the 3-day duration of wave 2-3.   This pattern is valid so long as SPX < 2513.   If this pattern is correct, the next wave will take between 4-6 trading days to complete.    


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#5 dTraderB

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 07:11 AM

Based on my review of Friday's intra-day charts, I believe SPX finished a complex correction.  The wave 4 pattern characteristics fit both the "rule of alternation" and correspond to the 3-day duration of wave 2-3.   This pattern is valid so long as SPX < 2513.   If this pattern is correct, the next wave will take between 4-6 trading days to complete.    

 

 

The January rally can be really big if there is positive talk & even minor accomplishment on three fronts:

-- the China Trade War fiasco that could cause major damage to both China & US

-  Govt shutdown

- FED hint of rate policy change or "reassessment" of criteria etc 

 

All of the above are fairly low bars that can be translated into major catalysts for the market rally.

Remember, a market that wants to go up will find any excuse or reason to do so. 

 

However, if there is negative or no news on any of the above, the markets will take it real hard and down again.

After all that is resolved or off the radar, reality will return and.....the bear will be back in force.

 

Can Q4 earnings save the market? 



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 07:12 AM

Good stuff from Arthur Hill, including 2019 market forecast

 

Stocks rebounded last week and recovered part of their losses from the prior week. Long black candlesticks formed the week before Christmas and most sector SPDRs recovered with long white candlesticks the following week. A black candlestick forms when the close is below the open, while a white candlestick forms when the close is above the open. Chartists can compare the last two weekly candlesticks to find the sectors that recovered the most.

Before looking at a weekly candlestick pattern, note that the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is in a long-term downtrend and almost all sector SPDRs are also in long-term downtrends. 10 of the 11 sector SPDRs closed below their 40-week SMAs last week. Only the Utilities SPDR (XLU) remains above its 40-week SMA. Thus, a bullish candlestick pattern within a long-term downtrend argues for an oversold bounce (at best), not a major trend reversal.

The Financials SPDR (XLF) formed a piercing pattern because the weekly open was below the prior close and the weekly close was above the mid-point of the prior candlestick body (open-close range).  The bears were in control at the start of the week because prices initially moved lower. The bulls took over and gained control by the end of the week as prices moved higher after a weak start.

15462454836042019798581.png

XLF also became oversold as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) moved below -200 for the first time in over three years. The combination of a piercing pattern and oversold reading could give way to a bounce. There are broken lows in the 25 and 26 area, and a bounce back to the the 25-26 zone is possible.

Note that there were four weekly piercing patterns in the sector SPDRs last week (XLB, XLF, XLV and XLY). The other seven sector SPDRs did not manage to close above the mid-point of the prior week's candlestick. This suggests that these four sectors had the strongest bounces. StockCharts members can use the scan code below to find piercing patterns or bullish engulfings.

https://stockcharts....g-patterns.html



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 07:17 AM

This time, after two previous days of large scale buy programs, my gut says that I would sell into it if you hold some Index trading long rentals (I sold my ETFs yesterday). We will find out soon enough if I am correct in timing thi Position: None @realmoney

 

 Douglas Kass Retweeted

Goldman Sachs cuts forecast for first half of 2019, says weaker growth needed to 'land the plane'

 

Read More, Talk Less Why the negative wealth effect and loss of confidence could lead to a recession... (h/t @LanceRoberts) @SquawkCNBC https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-biggest-threat-to-the-market-loss-of-confidence/  and on @realmoney The Negative Wealth Effect will Weigh on 2019 https://realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-diary?published[value][date]=2018-12-24&author=All#the-negative-wea-20181224 



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 07:21 AM

OCCUPY WISDOM @OccupyWisdom
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$SPX TODAY, AS COMPARED TO HISTORICAL DRAWDOWNS 1962 CRASH -26% WOULD BRING IT TO 2015 LEVEL 1987 CRASH -35% WOULD BRING IT TO 2014 LEVEL 2000 CRASH -49% WOULD BRING IT TO 2000 LEVEL 2007 CRASH -56% WOULD BRING IT TO 1999 LEVEL 1929 CRASH -89% WOULD BRING IT TO 1987 LEVEL

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3:53 AM - 30 Dec 2018


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 07:25 AM

The bulls can run on this one:

 

 

Charlie BilelloVerified account @charliebilello
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The Long Pause. 6 reasons why the Fed will take their time before hiking rates again. NEW POST... https://pensionpartners.com/the-long-pause/ 

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3:12 PM - 29 Dec 2018


#10 LMF

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Posted 31 December 2018 - 09:10 AM

I read Doug Kass article on the recent FOMC decision.....he was only marginally correct about the Fed holding rates down too long since 2009.  Even the 2 year old knows that part of the story.  But everything else he said was flat out stupid given this economy and how fragile it can get if the Fed mis-manages their situation.  Even a little recession is not ok if the Fed ends up being the driver for it....just because they want to shrink the balance sheet and hike rates back to normal.  We can easily see what happens when the markets sense a loss in confidence.  That was the exact thing that was present back in 2009......Ford selling for 90 cents a share back then was a loss of confidence everywhere.  Everywhere under the sun.....