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Will it be like 2008 bear or 2011 & 2016 reversal?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 04:47 PM

This is the monthly SPX until end of 2018. 

Firstly, that was a massive December 2018 SPX monthly candle, 400 points, equivalent to more than 9 months of the bull market during the previous 2 years. It was indeed a record monthly candle, never has there been a larger one.

Good news for the bulls is the close on Dec 31st 2018 that was more than 6% from the monthly and yearly low.

 

But, that is not guarantee of a sustainable reversal. 2008 is one example of what appears to be a reversal candle but the decline continued after a brief respite. In 2011 and 2016, the markets recovered and the long-term bull was intact.....until NOW? 

 

Will 2019 be like 2008 (down) or like 2011 and 2016 (up)?

 

Or, will it be a choppy sideways market that finishes 2019 with about 2% up or down? 

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#2 dTraderB

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 04:49 PM

This is a yearly BKX chart..... does not look good for the bullish case:

 

$BKX yearly outside reversal candles.

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#3 dTraderB

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 04:59 PM

On the first day of December 2018, I asked:

 

Is the Great Bull Market over? Could be that today is the Turning point
Started by dTraderBDec 03 2018 02:49 PM
See link below
 
One month later, on January 1st 2019, I now ask :
is this a bear market rally (short, sharp, and a ST bear trap) that will resume in early January ?? 
 
Yes, I believe this is a bear market rally but it could be quite punishing for the bears. 
And, it will be very choppy for both bears & bulls. 
 
 

http://www.traders-t...-turning-point/



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 01 January 2019 - 07:36 PM

Charlie BilelloVerified account

 

 

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Poll results: is this the big one (next 2000-02/2007-09) or just another large correction (2011/2015-16)?

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9:14 AM - 28 Dec 2018

 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 06:14 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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New year starts w/ #China doom: Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in Dec, from Nov’s 50.2, below no-change consensus. New orders also fell, for first time since Jun2016. Suggests that activity unlikely to begin a recovery until H2, Pantheon Macro says.

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11:47 PM - 1 Jan 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 06:18 AM

Carl QuintanillaVerified account @carlquintanilla
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Oppenheimer charts all bear cycles since 1932 and argues the stock market still needs “additional price consolidation” — either a double-bottom or a ‘V’ reversal off a failed breakdown. (via @pattidomm)

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6:47 PM - 1 Jan 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 06:26 AM

I expect the S&P 500 to visit 2,000 sometime in 2019 and then bounce around that bottom for much of the year. This would represent a decrease in the S&P’s trailing PE multiple to around 15x which feels like a bottom to me given the recent history of the equity markets in the US:

 

Joe Weisenthal

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"I expect the S&P 500 to visit 2,000 sometime in 2019" -- @avc https://avc.com/2019/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2019/ 

2:52 AM - 2 Jan 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 08:32 AM

Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart
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From Stephen Enlander, precursor surveys to the ISM showing one of their biggest plunges ever

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5:12 AM - 2 Jan 2019


#9 12SPX

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 09:14 AM

Thanks db for all the information so great!!!  



#10 zoropb

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 09:48 AM

yup what 12 said.  Thanks for all your time and effort db. 


Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.