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Will it be like 2008 bear or 2011 & 2016 reversal?


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#11 jdjimenez

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 10:08 AM

For me, two of my three boxes are now checked.

 

Death cross

Close below 17 month moving average

 

Only thing missing is the Vector Vest earnings indicator which is holding strong but moves much slower. That would be the last shoe to drop.

 

My thought is we chop around and back test the 17 month MA at 2670.45 as the earnings indicator slowly rolls over and then we continue down. Went to cash in September and laddered into T-bills in December going out 9 months with an average of 2.52%. If we indeed back test the 17 month MA I'll use SDS to play the downside. Safe and happy and wish the same to you all.

 

James Jimenez



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 10:09 AM

"News Indicator" Sentiment rally

 

Bullish when bad news saturate the market, sentiment spikes down, the street says it is now a bear market after 20% down, and the politicians start to get a bit more serious about solving the problems that sent the market down

 

Look for a possible reversal today, up on the day. 

 

If not, then the next target down is SPX 2420



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 11:23 AM

"News Indicator" Sentiment rally

 

Bullish when bad news saturate the market, sentiment spikes down, the street says it is now a bear market after 20% down, and the politicians start to get a bit more serious about solving the problems that sent the market down

 

Look for a possible reversal today, up on the day. 

 

If not, then the next target down is SPX 2420

 

ST LOW is in place:

 

2 % from the low, bad news already in the market, the street talks of a "20% down bear market" and the the buy dippers looking to 

come in early in the year to open positions. 

 

BUT, markets are also politically driven so expect.....ANYTHING, even a retest of the 2018 SPX low

Today's SPX low is the critical support for this ST rally

 

SPX daily close above 2528 is an IT buy