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An Epic Bounce....or another dud?


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#21 zoropb

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 11:08 AM

out 2.75


Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.


#22 dTraderB

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 11:08 AM

Looking for a minor pullback to re-establish LONGS, but not chasing it, on a Friday afternoon

 

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The S&P 500 is up 2.66% today, but is still under its key 2,550 to 2,600 resistance zone. For now, this is just a re-test of that resistance. It would need to close convincingly above that resistance to negate the recent breakdown. $SPY $SPX

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7:29 AM - 4 Jan 2019


#23 dTraderB

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 11:09 AM

out 2.75

You are always welcome here, but I think you should be posting this on your thread, LOL

 

I went there to see what you were doing but you were HERE! 

 

Great trading, Z!



#24 zoropb

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 11:10 AM

2525 is 1 extension over normal already.  going to short again.


Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.


#25 zoropb

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 11:10 AM

Sorry db I was looking at yours on breack and forgot to change it. I am so concentrated on the bars. sorry brother.


Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.


#26 Dex

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 11:11 AM

Ok, let's be real: this market is a sick puppy, and will be so for most of 2019, unless there is a vast improvement in the political environment & conduct of negotiations etc.

 

Fundamentals are still fairly strong, the FED will back off the hike plan with dovish cooing today from Powell, and the Shutdown & Trade Talks are all artificial problems that can be solved in a day or two or three.

 

However, the market has been spooked with fear and panic permeating almost every market in the world.

 

There has been a complex bottoming process since the December low. In terms of my TA analysis, the market will go up unless that low is taken out. Also, the bad news & instability have already been priced into the markets. 

 

Either the market now bounces 10% or more now or only up to the previous swing hi at SPX 2520 and then back down again to retest that critical December low. 

 

My opinion: EPIC bounce to SPX 2700 or higher

If that fails, SPX 2250/60 will be the next major target if SPX 2350 is taken out.

 

Lower than expected Q4 earnings or warnings will kill this wannabe bounce! 

spkey.png

https://macromon.wor...0-key-levels-5/

 

 

Take a look at the 200 WEEK MA on the S&P 500  it has been support for many years.

 

A break below 2,350 is significant which is in your numbers. 


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#27 dTraderB

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 11:12 AM

Sorry db I was looking at yours on breack and forgot to change it. I am so concentrated on the bars. sorry brother.

 

No need to apologize, you are always welcome to browse my posts.



#28 dTraderB

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 12:36 PM

Closed all SPY & QQQ calls 

 

Looking for the next option trade...



#29 dTraderB

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 12:46 PM

 

Ok, let's be real: this market is a sick puppy, and will be so for most of 2019, unless there is a vast improvement in the political environment & conduct of negotiations etc.

 

Fundamentals are still fairly strong, the FED will back off the hike plan with dovish cooing today from Powell, and the Shutdown & Trade Talks are all artificial problems that can be solved in a day or two or three.

 

However, the market has been spooked with fear and panic permeating almost every market in the world.

 

There has been a complex bottoming process since the December low. In terms of my TA analysis, the market will go up unless that low is taken out. Also, the bad news & instability have already been priced into the markets. 

 

Either the market now bounces 10% or more now or only up to the previous swing hi at SPX 2520 and then back down again to retest that critical December low. 

 

My opinion: EPIC bounce to SPX 2700 or higher

If that fails, SPX 2250/60 will be the next major target if SPX 2350 is taken out.

 

Lower than expected Q4 earnings or warnings will kill this wannabe bounce! 

spkey.png

https://macromon.wor...0-key-levels-5/

 

 

Take a look at the 200 WEEK MA on the S&P 500  it has been support for many years.

 

A break below 2,350 is significant which is in your numbers. 

 

 

 

SPX 2350 may be reached before end of January 2019

The really strong support zone is SPX 2250/60

 

Q4 earnings season - actual earnings, warnings, and lowering Q1 estimates -  is the MAJOR MARKET factor (fundamental; political is another issue)



#30 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 01:44 PM

As of yesterday Rydex Ratio was at a 3 year high ( meaning people are out of the market and in bear funds and cash )  This is normally a push for the market to go higher...   Given the current scenario with the economy, I would say the correction is over, there are a lot of money of the sidelines that need to come into the market and higher prices to make the market overbought.

 

Given the current economic conditions the market is properly valued...   About 8% higher we will become mildly overbought and 20% higher extremely overbought...  

 

I do think we go higher from her..

 

qqqqtrdr