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5 year EMA


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#1 LMF

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 08:32 AM

About a year ago I read Sven Henrich's analysis of the 5 year EMA in relation to the major market averages.....NDX, SPX, DJIA.  I can only get a yearly EMA displayed on Bigcharts.com.  The markets typically work best on the upside when they have reached that MA at some point during the year.  It doesn't always happen, but if not it's going to re-assert eventually.  This was when the markets were going parabolic in January 2018, miles above the 5 year EMA.  2017 had started out ok around the 5 year EMA, but 2018 was already looking like a potential train wreck in January. 

 

With all the downside in 2018, the markets still did not get down far enough to the 5 year EMA.  Right now it looks like a full retest of the current lows would just about do it.....DJIA 21400, SPX 2340, and QQQ lower to 139.  You can see what goes on with SPX.....it did not get down there in 2014 and 2015, driving the lows in 2016 to finally get there.  And then it did not get down there in 2017 and 2018.  2019 should be it.....



#2 slupert

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 09:05 AM

First of all, I don't agree withe everything Henrich says, but ya can't ignore this chart he has of the megaphone tops on the $spx towards the bottom of the page.

https://www.marketwa...ruth-2019-01-05



#3 slupert

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 09:14 AM

First of all, I don't agree withe everything Henrich says, but ya can't ignore this chart he has of the megaphone tops on the $spx towards the bottom of the page.

https://www.marketwa...ruth-2019-01-05

https://northmantrad...ook/spx-tnx-12/



#4 LMF

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 10:26 AM

If there was only a market theory that's guaranteed to work 100 percent of the time.....we could all be rich of course.  But this one is definitely close enough I think.  What I really end up looking for is just a general picture of what to expect for the year.....and leave it to the shorter term which never fails to give me the hard numbers out to 9 decimals. Hoping for 3 full years in a row above the 5 year EMA is not going to be a good investment strategy.....