Good morning everyone.
This is how I was able to tell the members I expected a high between 2900 and 3000 last year.
Year: 114 Level. I always take the high probable area we are likely to visit based on the previous 12 months. In this case 2175 is the minimum low for this year. so given the high odds minimum low I will reverse engineer the levels to a probable high. 2175 x4 levels = 2631.
Now we have to give at least a .50 level either way to get a closer probable point. Which in the up case would be 2688 and in the lower using the current high print 2599.50 - (114x4.5) 513 = 2085.50. So somewhere between 2688 and 2086.60 is the entre of this year's trading.
Quarter: 90.50 Level / 45.25/ 22.50 Probable 2.5 level minimum. Now keeping in mind the year and what can we expect in this quarter.
Using the start of this quarter at 2508 + 1 L = 2598.50 (look familiar?).
1.25 = 2621
1.50= 2643.75
1.75= 2666.25
2 = 2688
With this info we see where the 2 spots that match the year gives 2621 on the Q and 2631 on the Y so lets call it 2626 avg.
The 2nd point of interest is 2688 on Q and same on year. This tells me there is a good chance this current wave ends at 2626+- correct and possibly take us on the C wave to 2688 where the year high will print if we are tracing out a B wave off the low. If we are only tracing out a 4th then 2626+- will top us out for the year most likely.
Month: 69.75 : Level 35/17.50. We have already used 1.25 of a probable minimum of 1.75 to 2.5 level month and given where we are it is highly unlikely we print below 2508 this month before a bit higher due to the quarter.
1= 2577.75
1.25= 2587.25
1.50= 2512.50
1.75= 2630 match's the Year high odds 2631 and Q 2621)
2 = 2647.50
2.75 = 2699. Pushing things a bit here.
Week: 33.25 Level 16.50 / 8.25. Probable week 2.50-3.50 levels minimum. From other work I have we will print at or near the 2565 area again. This gives us an idea where at least 1 level will be wasted given the space between the 2. Which in turn gives us limited upside of 1 Level or less probability to 2.5 or more downside. So lets look at both. If we add a level to the current week close puts us at about 2595+33.25= 2628.25 and if we take all four combined gives us a high this week of 2627.50. Using what looks like a price magnet avg between all 4 above and working down to a low since we have to use at least 2.5 this week. Then we could see a low if the above is the case of 2627.50 -83 = 2544.50 or lower. If we printed a high on Thursday and have yet to surpass that high we could see 2.5Ls or more from around the close print Friday 2595- 83 = 2512+-. From one of these extremes lies a good larger move to jump on.
Day: 10.25 / 5 / 2.50 (I do not scalp on anything less than 3 points against the bigger level) where last week I would trade the 3.5 corrections, I do not touch them now). Same in bull market if the day level is four I only trade the level and no halves or quarters. This is why I love bear markets you can make mullah all over the place and way more of it. Ok back to day. Using the above we can expect a 4 level day and 2 at least after so many non normal days. If up I will say 2 -2.5 is the ceiling and 5 to 9 Ls down.
Using Doug's Tuesday and Thursday turns I can see where we could go up into early Tuesday Late Monday Top and drop into Thursday late maybe Friday morning or Plan B drop into Tuesday and up into late Thursday or early Friday.
Seems like the entre for this week is down with limited upside. Be quick to take profits upside and let them run more downside. Let price tell you where we are going. The #1 indicator.
Edited by zoropb, 13 January 2019 - 10:41 AM.
