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Market stalled at SPX 50ma


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 09:04 PM

Whatever is happening out there does not bother the market as it grinds higher with the ST and IT Longs still valid even after a surprising last hour drop.

 

SPX 50ma average at 2629 is the key level to watch, as well as the SPX 2640/50 very strong resistance zone. While there is strong resistance just above the market, and also just above SPX 2700, I still think the market can tack on another 2 to 3 % before reaching an IT top.

 

However, another daily close below the 50ma at SPX 2629 will trigger my ST SELL 

 

Good chart here from Northman.

 

SPXD-5.png

 

https://northmantrad...1/16/bear-hugs/

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 09:26 PM

"Mature Rising Wedge" !! 

 

 

DP Alert: Short-Term Indicators and Mature Rising Wedge Suggest a Downturn
Erin Swenlin |  January 16, 2019 at 08:52 PM

 

SPX Daily Chart: To expand on the "mature" pattern definition, Thomas Bulkowski nullifies patterns that get more than 2/3 in to the apex. We should see the breakdown soon. If not, the pattern will lose validity. If price snuggles up in the apex, any type of consolidation or sideways move would technically be a break below the rising bottoms trend line. I don't have confidence in a "breakdown" that occurs on a drift sideways. I could see a rally continuing to the intermediate-term declining tops line, if it can first break above the November low. Price closed near the lows today, which, in general, is a sign of a reversal.

15476857888321226181770.png

Climactic Market Indicators: Looking at the direction of breadth and price, we have a pretty strong negative divergence. The VIX has yet to reach the upper Bollinger Band, but we've seen price drops occur before that happens. Note that, despite a very strong rally off of the December low, no New Highs have been set. Part of the reason is for that is that they hit deep lows and are having to take some time to move high enough. 

https://stockcharts....a-downturn.html



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 09:35 PM

15476597368251813775159.gifEquity Put/Call ratio closed Friday at .77, which suggests the market could bounce (88% of the time within 5 days) and that bounce is in effect now. There is a confluence of Fibonacci levels of 50% and 61.8% retracement level at the 2620 SPX range, which is where the November and December lows lie, and a resistance zone (today’s close 2607).  Watching the TICK and TRIN for bearish clues; nothing showing up for an edge but there could be shortly. The large open gap at the 2450 range most likely will get tested sooner rather than later. The TICKs (near top of chart) have remained above “0” as the December low suggests the momentum is still up. The market could bounce to the Fibonacci Confluence level near 2620 SPX range, where it could turn down to test the January 4 gap near the 2450 range (still bullish longer term).1547659752832505110063.gif

January option expiration week has odds of 75% being lower, with an average loss of 1% and the second worst week of the year. There can be a pull back here, but the bigger trend is up. There have been “Zweigh Breadth Thrust,” “McClellan Oscillator Breadth Thrust” (above chart) and a “Walter Deemer Breakaway Momentum Thrust,” all of which are bullish and suggest a new high in the market in the next twelve months. These “Thrusts” suggest the December low will not be broken. However there is a good possibility that the January 4 gap near 2450 SPX range could be tested. There is resistance around the current SPX price and we are watching for a setup.

 

https://stockcharts....ry-15-2019.html



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2019 - 07:09 AM

Douglas KassVerified account @DougKass
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* 50 Day moving average will provide resistance - Mr. Market may be about to run into previous distribution levels

2:59 AM - 17 Jan 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2019 - 07:09 AM

Replying to @DougKass

S&P 500 - daily chart

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#6 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2019 - 07:10 AM

PQmpPF4K_bigger.jpgDouglas KassVerified account @DougKass
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* A shift towards more bullish investor sentiment (according to the Divine Ms M, Investors Intelligence Bulls have risen from 29% two weeks ago to 42% today) * The advance/decline line remains in a downtrend * Momentum is still weak

2:59 AM - 17 Jan 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2019 - 07:13 AM

  1. UST 10yr Yield back down to 2.71% as Bond Kings suffer losses from being underweight Treasuries on "supply" concerns

  2.  More

    10yr JGB Yield drops back to negative -0.01% as both Japan and China continue to slow

  3.  More

    COPPER: down another -0.2% and remains Bearish @Hedgeye TREND (for a year now)



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2019 - 07:16 AM

US economy is still humming along nicely but FAR EAST & EUROPE are weakening

 

Any resolution to the TRADE WAR - even a face-saving token resolution than will improve the contentious & surly mood - will reignite the LT BULL rally, all the way to SPX 2800.

 

A SHUTDOWN solution will send SPX another 5% higher.

 

But, earnings problems can wipe out all of the above.

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Deutsche Bank Sees Danger of U.S. Recession as Soon as This Year. If the government shut down continues it could cause a recession. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/deutsche-bank-sees-danger-of-a-u-s-recession-soon-as-this-year 

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12:52 AM - 17 Jan 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 17 January 2019 - 07:17 AM.


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2019 - 07:20 AM

#5things -Huawei probe adds to China-U.S. tensions -Brexit gridlock -Shutdown: Day 27 -Markets mixed -Coming up... https://bloom.bg/2FCxzES 

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3:46 AM - 17 Jan 2019


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2019 - 11:41 AM

closed my GE stock position, $1.47 profit

 

Looking to add QQQ March puts today.