2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my system the day this coming week with the highest risk of a turn or an acceleration of the current up trend is Tuesday the 22nd of January.

 

Last week's Tuesday risk window caught the turn back up after an very brief turn down.  The Thursday the 17th risk window was a garden variety dud.  There's been an abnormal number of dud risk windows these past few weeks.  That's an indication of a strong movement where risk is ignored and the trend adored.  If the batting average of the risk windows improves, it will be a clear indication that this 3rd wave is winding down.  

 

The happy times are here again chorus is starting to get loud enough for it to start showing up in sentiment figures.  One survey I follow has 73% bulls at the end of this week, up from a low of 4% just before Christmas.  Laissez les bon temps rouler, again!  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[bighouse1006]

Hi Douglas, thanks for the update! Both your windows were good last week. Both days marked a low for a continuation of trend higher.

[Douglas]

That's very generous of you, but I expect to clearly see a turn on the daily chart or a strong acceleration in the risk window or else I label the risk window a dud.  I won't cut my system any slack.  It either performs or I trash talk it. 

 

This is a very exciting time, and I need my system to be on form. In my very humble opinion the broad market either turned up to continue the FED induced bull market on December 26th, or began an upward correction within a new bear market.  I believe that nobody, and I do mean nobody, knows which is correct at this juncture.  I am slightly obsessed with sniffing out the answer to this quandary in advance of the next major turn since if it's a bear market that would be a 3 down and will devastate any one long.  My system danged well better get me on the right side of this or else I'll be eating beans on toast for dinner a lot more than I really like.

 

Regards,

Douglas