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FED KILLS THE BEAR, for now


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#11 redfoliage2

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 09:10 AM

The rally is running out of steam and be prepared for a major reversal.........

#12 dTraderB

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 10:00 AM

Agree on reversal

 

but MAJOR?

 

we may see some backfilling, rallies, pullbacks, before the BIG ONE down



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 10:03 AM

Want to see new lows or highs of the day before committing to the next trade

 

Being logical (LOL), I agree with the hypothesis that the FED PUT is out there now because they are concerned, maybe also political pressure, 

but they are concerned about weakness, somewhere, maybe debt market, EU, China etc

 

 it was almost entirely due to Wednesday's Fed Meeting and Powell's doveish statements after but what worried me that night (as I said on TV) and what worries me still – is what is the Fed so afraid of that they feel they have to prop up the markets at levels that are 300% HIGHER than when they began to intervene back in 1999?

Intervention is expensive and intervention is destabilizing and usually used as a last resort and it's not just the 666 lows on the S&P that we're miles above but the pre-crash highs of not even 1,600 that we're beating by 1,100 – that's 68.75% higher than we were than the levels the Fed was supposed to be getting us back to and NOW they think falling back to not quite 100% higher is some kind of crisis?  

52fd6a1fe40b55fc11cc30375635aec3.png

What I worry about is that the Emperor has no clothes and thank goodness I'm not taking about The Donald but the markets in General, which have been pumped up on artificially low rates, monetary stimulus, lower taxes, repatriation of overseas funds (also at low tax rates) and, of course, Corporate Buybacks.  None of those things are supposed to be permanent and, USUALLY, a government will do one thing or the other – not all of the above!  

55431-15491782518372343.pngIt costs real money to do these stiulus packages and it's money we're borrowing from the Future in order to what? in the present?  Again, where's the beef in this economy that it can't stand even a little bit of price correction?  Consumer Confidence has rarely been higher though it's significantly off the December highs – before the Government shutdown.

It's not the present situation that's going down – if you ask people how they are doing, economically, they will generally tell you they are feeling good because 96% of the people are employed and we're all fairly surprised to be alive in year two of the Trump Presidency.  However, if you has people about their forward economic expectaitons – they are plunging, down below 100 from a high of 117 in November.  



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 10:04 AM

https://www.philstoc...-1500-must-hold



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 10:07 AM

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator remains in extremely overbought conditions for 4th recap in a row.  It remains consistently OVER level it usually PEAKS at.  Very rare indeed.

nymo.png

Long term: The “V” is on… the S&P 500 is getting to a very interesting area just below the trend line it broke this fall that had held for almost 2 years.  So when it gets there it will be interesting to see if it now serves as resistance – that level is in the upper 2770s.

spx2.png



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 04 February 2019 - 10:54 AM

well, this is all very exciting market action today! 

 

NOT!

 

Like the Superbowl! 



#17 Data

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Posted 05 February 2019 - 09:42 PM

That oscillator level has happened in both bull and bear markets.  Since they subtract past oversold readings to calculate the value, it naturally occurs close to a swing low as well as a major low.