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#1 cycletimer

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:07 AM

This is the first option of the year for me.  I only buy premium in the form of puts & calls a few times per year (an ave. of 4 times per year).  I've drastically reduced the frequency of such trades and this has greatly increased my accuracy as I'm 5-for-6 wins over the past 18 months.  This is a high conviction trade.  I am still long a number of individual stocks and this trade is not so much a hedge (though it'll pay a part) as much as it's more of a short term macro play.

 

I purchased the $SPX March 2750 puts @ 26.70

 

I'll keep the board apprised of the trade.  If we rally a bit more and I can pick more up at the 35-level, even better, as I plan to scale out of this trade in 1/3's once the sell-off begins.  (I'm not expecting much in terms of magnitude, but with the collapse of VIX and the overall bullish sentiment returning, it won't talke much of a sell-off for these puts to increase!).

 

CYCLES:  Yesterday was a turn, plus or minus one trading day...... Next cycle turns/pivots are 2/20 and 2/27/28



#2 blustar

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:44 AM

I see a top today and then next week around 2/20 a low.  A .382 retrace is likely meaning down into the low 2600 SPX area.  Next week also has the 7 week low due 2/19-20.  That means a huge rally likely into March 1-4 after that.


Blessings,

 

blu

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#3 cycletimer

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 10:56 AM

I see a top today and then next week around 2/20 a low.  A .382 retrace is likely meaning down into the low 2600 SPX area.  Next week also has the 7 week low due 2/19-20.  That means a huge rally likely into March 1-4 after that.

Ha Ha, Our cycles are following same path.  The BIG TURNS (that are followed by sizable moves in the market) are this cycle today (actual turn was 2/12 + or - 1 TD) and 2/20, followed by 3/4.  (The cycle pivot on 2/27/28th is minor and may be a pause only.  

FWIW, I also picked up a position in the $SPX 2725 March puts as well (@ $26 per put).  I don't like holding put premium for long but since it's March expiration and I'm fairly confident we top today, I'll hold these puts multiple days.



#4 dasein

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 12:42 PM

Kirk - does that mean you are out - since a turn didnt happen? 


best,
klh

#5 cycletimer

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 03:48 PM

Dasien,
Sorry for this late reply, been in meetings throughout the day. I am out, I exited this morning a few minutes after the open and I’m pleased with that short term trade. I made 11 S&P points on the trade. I’ll re-enter when I’m compelled but everything is too iffy right now. I may await the next turn on the 20th and fade that pivot.
CT