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BEARISH in an apparent BULL market


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:39 PM

A few days rest was most welcome after a hectic first 6 weeks of 2019.

 

I decided to lighten my LT portfolio last week because I could not allow a 11% profit in less than 2 months of 2019 to be frittered away.

 

It has been a long time since I have had such this gain in less than 6 weeks so I thought it was prudent & no harm done in taking some off the table. 

 

More LT holdings (mainly financials and energy) will be closed on any up move this week and I will add to my existing 28 QQQ JUN puts. 

I really did not expect financials and energy stocks to move up so quickly but I am not complaining! 

 

Yes, I am now even more bearish in this BULL market. I would not be surprised to see another 3 to 4 % SPX rally but my forecast is SPX in March SPX to be much lower than what it is today, and I am sure I can buy back most of these stocks at much lower prices during the next 3 to 4 months.

 

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Where oh where have all those AAII bears gone? 4 wk ma of AAII bears

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Insider Sell/Buy Ratio notched up again this week.

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5

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:41 PM

NYSE Breadth.

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NYSE up volume was 82% yesterday, most since 1/18 when it was 83%. 1/18 was also an expiration.

 

Consensus Bulls 56%. Finally back to where they were in early December. Only took 8 weeks.

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#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:47 PM

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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The NYSE A-D Line made a new all-time high on Friday, an act which says liquidity is strong, and the chances are low for a big drawdown. Usually that means 10% or less. QE1 and QE2 were exceptions. See https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/a-d_line_new_high/  for more details.

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#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:50 PM

  1. $SPX is projected to report a year-over-year decline (-2.2%) in earnings for Q119, led by the Energy (-11%), Technology (-10%), and Materials (-9%) sectors. http://ow.ly/pcz930nIAvz 

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    $SPX EPS estimate for Q119 has declined by 5.4% over the past 12 months and by 5.8% since Dec. 31. http://ow.ly/OEl230nIAuN 

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#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:52 PM

I noticed this but did not realize it was so extreme.

 

 

Last hour of the day and the last hour of the morning have been the only hours that matter since Christmas.

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#6 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:57 PM

  1. S&P 500: With 85% of companies reported, GAAP EPS up 31% YoY. Highest earnings growth in 8 years. $SPX

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    Best start to a year for equities since 1987...

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#7 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 08:58 PM

Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts
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ICYMI - REAL INVESTMENT REPORT IS OUT! IS IT A BULL TRAP? Massive retracements from extremely oversold to overbought, resurgence of complacency, and falling bond yields. Can anything go wrong? Interesting take from @MktwHulbert $SPY $TLT https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-it-a-bull-trap-02-15-19/ 

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#8 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 09:03 PM

EW guy:

 

So, in summary, as long as the market is over 2740-55SPX in the coming week, I am looking for a break out through 2780SPX, which will then initially raise support up to a floor of 2750, with a further raise to 2770 should we be able to move to 2810SPX. Alternatively, should the market break below 2740, and follow through below 2730, it points us back down to the 2600 region, and potentially lower for the [b] wave pullback.

 

https://seekingalpha...far-eye-can-see



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 09:07 PM

The Technical Picture

With continued strength across the board and market internals confirming that strength, I'll stay with my earlier view:

“Any future weakness should produce a retest that does not get anywhere near the lows.”

Nowhere it is implied that it is up, up, and away from here. The rally continued this week and another line of overhead resistance fell. This time it was the 200-day moving average (Brown line).

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Chart courtesy of FreeStockCharts.com

 

I noted last week that this area was the least of my concerns if the rally were to move forward.

“Many analysts and weekend chartists will now cite the 200 day moving average (brown line) of the S&P as a key to how far this rally can go. While it is important, I caution investors about putting too much emphasis on it today.”

The reason, the index had already cracked that line in two previous rallies. The more important area resides where the two arrows are drawn on the chart. The November and December rally highs.

The Dow, Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq are all up eight weeks in a row; the S&P has recorded gains in seven of the last eight weeks. Using my indicators, the Russell 2000 has now joined all of the other major indices is reestablishing a bullish configuration. At the moment, all are in sync. Now it remains to be seen if these indicators and indices can remain aligned going forward.

Given the quick rally off the lows, no one should be surprised if the indices start to weaken some. A quick test of the 200-day moving average may be the next move for the S&P. Success or failure there will determine whether this move may be a ‘false breakout’.

Short-term support is at S&P 2,697, then 2,616. Resistance resides at the two arrows highlighted on the chart. S&P 2,780 up to 2,820.

https://seekingalpha...t-ready-tug-war



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 09:11 PM

Been a while since I looked at the GANN angle analysis

 

Dow Jones Gann Angle Update

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Let’s review the Dow Jones Industrial Gann Angles and its secret sauce dominate cycle.



Dow Jones hit upper resistance Gann angle early 2019, a sell of followed, now the bounce works its way through the down ward Gann Angle, a fail at either make or break point will see the bounce sell off, and that may get very interesting!

 

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https://www.philstoc...-angle-update-3