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The rally to fool everyone


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 03:14 PM

Been on vacation and been lazy so haven't update the blog lately...

 

From the link:

 

 

This is still my overall opinion. This is a bear-market rally. It has been and continues to be spectacular but it is still likely to be the rally to fool everyone into believing the bull is alive and well. And maybe it will turn out that it is, but no matter. The key is be long as long as it lasts but don’t fall in love with it.

 

For more discussion and links and a chart:

 

THE RALLY


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 fib_1618

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 05:06 PM

Just as a point of order, a NYSE McClellan Summation Bull Market Signal was generated last week...the first since January 2016. Add to that the Zweig EMA and SMA breadth thrust signals that were generated last month, the bullish pattern complexity of the NYSE MCO since the Christmas Eve capitulation lows (which saw new all time low readings in many breadth and volume MCO's), the highly negative sentiment at that time, and the new all time highs in multiple A/D lines just this past weekend, and that's a whole lot of analytical evidence going against this call.

 

Of course, it could be different this time, but the odds of that happening are less than 1% given this same list of breadth and sentiment dynamics. Furthermore, if the traditional NYSE breadth MCSUM takes out the summer highs of 2016, *da cheif* is going to have the last laugh on his Elliott Wave analysis.

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#3 CLK

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 05:24 PM

I'm switching to scalping to manage long term positions, just buying puts here and there doesn't work, they just go to zero.



#4 diogenes227

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 05:37 PM

Just as a point of order, a NYSE McClellan Summation Bull Market Signal was generated last week...the first since January 2016. Add to that the Zweig EMA and SMA breadth thrust signals that were generated last month, the bullish pattern complexity of the NYSE MCO since the Christmas Eve capitulation lows (which saw new all time low readings in many breadth and volume MCO's), the highly negative sentiment at that time, and the new all time highs in multiple A/D lines just this past weekend, and that's a whole lot of analytical evidence going against this call.

 

Of course, it could be different this time, but the odds of that happening are less than 1% given this same list of breadth and sentiment dynamics. Furthermore, if the traditional NYSE breadth MCSUM takes out the summer highs of 2016, *da cheif* is going to have the last laugh on his Elliott Wave analysis.

 

Fib

 

 

It may turn out this rally is fooling only me in my overall bearishness swoon.gif , but as we know...when it comes to swing trading as long as one is on the right side of the NYMO/NYSI all will be well.

 

Been long in one thing or another since this BLOG POST

 

TQQQ and TNA, my favorite leveraged ETFs, are up 43% and 67% respectively. Sweet, Sweet.

 

And the marijuana stocks' which popped up in the weed patch as far back as AUGUST OF LAST YEAR  have held my attention off and on since -- MJ, the ETF for the sector, is up 47% on this swing. Sweet Mary Jane!

 

As always, thanks for the comments and insight.  Much appreciated.

 

Good luck and good trading.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 tradesurfer

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 05:02 AM

I see a triple bearish divergence between SPx price and macd histogram. War with Venezuela this weekend will probably not help the bull case

#6 Waver

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:23 AM

War with Venezuela? Is that really even on the table?

Ive been traveling so I might have missed that somewhere.

#7 da_cheif

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 06:42 AM

you guys.....geez......watch the sky    6750n0



#8 tradesurfer

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 10:33 AM

War with Venezuela is not on the table... however 

 

There is supposed to be a big distribution of aid from USA and some other countries on Saturday.   But Maduro doesnt want it for his people.  But then you have trump giving them an ultimatum, and we will end socialism etc etc...

 

and not to mention China and Russia are backing Venezuela and Maduro ?

 

 

War with Venezuela? Is that really even on the table?

Ive been traveling so I might have missed that somewhere.