Jump to content



Photo

Dovish FEDSPEAK sends SPX up 4 points....topping


  • Please log in to reply
13 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 19 February 2019 - 06:36 PM

Running on fumes, good news visible, bad news invisible, and still some good news likely during the next week or so. 

 

"Looking ahead, investors will receive the FOMC Minutes for the January meeting and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index on Wednesday.

  • Russell 2000 +16.8% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +12.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 +10.9% YTD

..NYSE Adv/Dec 1830/1066. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1894/1155.

 

The U.S. and China resumed trade negotiations in Washington. President Trump said he believes China is intent on working quickly toward a deal to avoid a tariff hike on March 2. President Trump reiterated a possible extension to the trade deadline, telling reporters that the March 1 deadline was "not a magical date." 

 

Market Favors Fed Mester's Dovish Comments over Hawkish Comments

There was also some Fedspeak ahead of the FOMC's Minutes from the January meeting, which will be released on Wednesday.

New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) said mixed economic data has been a strong argument for a pause for further rate hikes, although he added that he expects to be drawing down the balance sheet for some time.

 

Cleveland Fed President Mester (non-FOMC voter) for her part reportedly said she favors slowing the Fed's balance sheet normalization effort, but said the fed funds rate may need to move a bit higher than current levels if the economy evolves as she expects.

 

The market took the good and ignored the bad, which is all it has done so far in 2019"

 

https://www.briefing...-market-update/

 

 



#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 19 February 2019 - 09:24 PM

My VIX buy could be triggered tomorrow. 

 

Mark Ungewitter @mark_ungewitter
FollowFollow @mark_ungewitter
More

$SPX 50-day breadth momentum, ICYMI. #BreadthThrust

Dzx_VLLX4AAjYrj.png
8:21 AM - 19 Feb 2019

 



#3 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 19 February 2019 - 09:30 PM

McClellanOsc_481.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

 

   

Stock Price Breadth
Extreme Greed

The McClellan Volume Summation Index measures advancing and declining volume on the NYSE. During the last month, approximately 20.99% more of each day's volume has traded in advancing issues than in declining issues, pushing this indicator towards the upper end of its range for the last two years.

Last changed Jan 24 from a Greed rating

Updated Feb 19 at 4:06pm

 
 
Stock Price Strength
Extreme Greed

The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs exceeds the number hitting lows and is at the upper end of its range, indicating extreme greed.

Last changed Jan 24 from a Greed rating

Updated Feb 19 at 4:02pm

 
 
Put and Call Options
Extreme Greed

During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 39.15% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. This is among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme greed on the part of investors.

Last changed Feb 14 from a Greed rating

Updated Feb 19 at 5:53pm

 

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/

 


#4 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 19 February 2019 - 09:33 PM

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
FollowFollow @sentimentrader
More

Commercial hedgers were net long over $9 billion worth of Nasdaq index futures at the end of January, the most since the financial crisis.

Dzy7iAfWkAoviwO.png
12:38 PM - 19 Feb 2019


#5 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 19 February 2019 - 09:34 PM

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
FollowFollow @sentimentrader
More

SentimenTrader Retweeted Tony Dwyer

Lots of breadth thrusts since early Jan. Here's another from one of the best strategists on the Street.

SentimenTrader added,

Tony Dwyer @dwyerstrategy
Friday, 92% of SPX stocks traded>50-day ma. Since 1990, median gain 3, 6 &12 months out is 5%, 9% and 16%, respectively. Median drawdown in 1st month after signal was -1%, with the two larger drawdowns of 4% and 7% easily reversed by 3 months. https://dwyerstrategy.canaccordgenuity.com/upside-extreme-points-to-new-highs/ 
12:55 PM - 19 Feb 2019


#6 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 20 February 2019 - 08:15 AM

I like that LOCOMOTIVE factoid below

 

FROM WSJ:

 

Market Facts
  • Renewed geopolitical uncertainty on U.S.-China trade talks and a weaker dollar helped power gold prices up 1.7% to $1,340.10 a troy ounce on Tuesday, their highest close since April 19 and their biggest one-day advance since Nov. 1. The precious metal has climbed 4.8% this year.
     
  • Yields on shorter-term debt, which tend to move in tandem with investors’ interest-rate expectations, retreated this week. The yield on the two-year Treasury note settled at 2.500% Tuesday, compared with 2.520% Friday. The yield on the two-year Treasury note has fallenfor three consecutive months, its longest such streak since 2013, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
     
  • On this day in 1852, a locomotive of the Michigan Southern railroad arrived in Chicago, connecting the breadbasket of the world directly with the Eastern U.S. for the first time. Instead of more than two weeks by horse, coach and canal boat, it took just two days by rail to travel from New York City to Chicago. Goods, money and people could flow between the two booming cities faster than anyone had ever imagined.
Key Events

The Dallas Fed’s Richard Kaplan speaks in Houston at 1:10 p.m. ET.

The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its Jan. 29-30 policy meeting at 2 p.m. 

 

 

 

 



#7 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 20 February 2019 - 08:17 AM

yeah, but does not mean the market cannot rally to SPX 2850 on this leg up

 

An $8 Trillion Corporate Credit Bubble
 

Feb. 20, 2019 7:39 AM ET

 

Summary

How does the current shorting opportunity in the market compares to previous setups in 2001 and 2008?

This is the biggest corporate credit bubble in the history of America - $8 trillion in corporate credit.

"What’s going to happen? I don’t know, but I’m not going to be long it, that’s for darn sure," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains.

A viewer asked Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on our inaugural Mega Market Trends webcast his thoughts on how the current shorting opportunity in the market compares to previous setups in 2001 and 2008.

 

https://seekingalpha...e-credit-bubble



#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 20 February 2019 - 08:18 AM

Put Some Clothes On - The Tide Will Soon Be Going Out

 

Summary

Revenue and earnings estimates are too high in the face of a global economic slowdown.

Profit margins are at a cyclical high and a secular high suggesting the ability to pull profit levels may be limited.

Earnings growth in the US is likely to fall well short of what is priced into the market over the next 12-18 months.

 

https://seekingalpha...will-soon-going

 



#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 20 February 2019 - 08:21 AM

McCullough: Don't Hang Your Hopes On Stimulus
Summary

Betting on monetary stimulus from the Fed is a bad idea. Try as they may, central bankers can’t bend and smooth economic reality.

"Because a policy maker is going dovish, doesn’t mean that growth and inflation re-accelerate,” Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains.

Growth and inflation are the two most causal factors across asset class returns, factor exposures, and sector styles going back to the beginning of time.

Reality check. Betting on monetary stimulus from the Fed is a bad idea. Try as they may, central bankers can’t bend and smooth economic reality.

 

https://seekingalpha...-hopes-stimulus



#10 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 25,936 posts

Posted 20 February 2019 - 09:53 AM

Still watching Trannies here....after one last relentless push up yesterday, things look to be coming apart here....

 

Testing 1 min 900 for 4th day in a row....my guess is it doesn't hold this time, and things start turning south very soon.....

 

A breach of the 10580 pivot likely starts things down....


Edited by K Wave, 20 February 2019 - 09:53 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy