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No Top Spotter... But...


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 27 February 2019 - 12:01 PM

I don't have a top-spotter Sell, but my Breadth model is VERY close to generating a confirmed Sell. In fact, barring a broad rally, I'm almost assured of getting a Sell.

 

I'm guessing that we consolidate for a few days before we break out on a run to new highs. I do think that there's maybe a 1 in 3 chance that we have a false break out failure sequence prior to the consolidation.

 

M


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#2 12SPX

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Posted 27 February 2019 - 12:37 PM

Sorry I'm confused does your "sell signal" only mean the market will move sideways, hasn't it already been doing that?  By consolidating does that mean we could see a -2% correction or just absolute flat sideways action?



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 27 February 2019 - 01:57 PM

Thinking along those lines, Mark. 

 

But, we have been though many bull markets, where without rhyme or reason, the markets power on.

So, there could still be a 1 or 2% move up from here 



#4 CLK

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Posted 27 February 2019 - 05:54 PM

A lot of people are looking for new lows here, calling this a significant top at 2800. I see the reasoning but to me its just not accurate.

To top here would mean that the Dec. low was an A wave and this is a B wave top with C to new lows next. I just don't see the possibility of "a" top until 3000-3200. B wave retracements do not have breadth this high.

 

 

http://schrts.co/NicWaevZ



#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 27 February 2019 - 06:10 PM

I'm saying that my breadth model is now on a Sell. We'll probably see SOME selling fairly soon, but I suspect that this signal is going to be a false alarm. If you trade the model, though, you should take them all. It's a good model.

 

I don't have enough to make a strong case for selling of any import.

 

I also see nothing but air above if we break out.

 

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#6 CLK

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Posted 27 February 2019 - 06:49 PM

I would be concerned on a drop below 2750 that it could go to 2700, I got a daily buy at the close but could chop for another day.



#7 CLK

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Posted 28 February 2019 - 07:25 AM

https://invst.ly/a5o59



#8 chem

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Posted 28 February 2019 - 11:14 AM

I'm saying that my breadth model is now on a Sell. We'll probably see SOME selling fairly soon, but I suspect that this signal is going to be a false alarm. If you trade the model, though, you should take them all. It's a good model.

 

I don't have enough to make a strong case for selling of any import.

 

I also see nothing but air above if we break out.

 

M

Mark - I think multiple reasons show up that should give bulls caution here...

 

Cumulative ticks need to reset ideally through a 0 line test and since it is extremely overbought it has a looong way to drop.

 

The lack of 'structure' in the nysi advance lends no ST support for price when the selling commences, 'too far too fast' Fib?

 

Insufficient testing of buy support occurred at the nymo high (btw the highest nymo since before the '09 price lows) and this coincides with the initial Z breadth thrust signal which also has not seen a price retest.

 

All in all I suspect some rather pronounced market weakness from this area.