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ST & IT SELL: beware of the fake pop up!


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:20 PM

Basically, the market is now  in ST & IT mode.

 

Why will invalidate this? 

For ST SELL, stop @ SPX 2784 

 

For IT SELL, stop @ SPX 2815 (this changes at the close every day)

 

Bulls pulled back from the lows to finish almost flat of the fake pop up that will be SOLD really hard at the slightest sign of bearishness. 

 

Still waiting on TRADE DEAL etc

 

POWELL us now a TV star on main street TV....nothing new from him, not a surprise since he can hardly go more dovish!

 

OPEX week could follow the conventional trend - UP - but there are exceptions and I think this is the case. 

 

But, one has to be ready to ditch your plan and follow the market if does not match your strategies. 

 

SP500-Buy-Sell-Chart4-030819.png



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:23 PM

Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts
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Great comments this week by @DougKass on the "Chinks" in the market's armor going forward. The current pullback may be the beginning of a bigger correction. Pay attention to things everyone else is currently dismissing. #Risk $SPY $TLT https://realinvestmentadvice.com/what-do-central-bankers-know-03-09-18/ 

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12:38 PM - 9 Mar 2019

This short-term oversold condition, and holding of minor support, does set the market up for a bounce next week which could get the market back above the 200-dma. The challenge, at least in the short-term remains the resistance level building at 2800.

However, the next two charts suggest there is a decent probability any bounce will fail in the short-term and should be used for rebalancing risk.

  1. The market has not reversed to levels which normally signals short-term bottoms. The red lines in the bottom four panels denote periods where taking profits, and reducing risk, has been ideal. The green lines have been prime opportunities to increase exposure. As you will note, these indicators tend to swing from extremes and once a correction process has started it is usually not completed until the lower bound is reached. 

Important Note: This does not mean the market will decline sharply in price. The current overbought conditions can also be resolved by continued consolidation within a range as we have seen over the last two weeks. 

SP500-Buy-Sell-Chart5-030819.png

2) There is historically a very high correlation between what happens in the transportation sector (a view on the economy) and the market as a whole. Watch for a rally in the transportation sector to signal an all-clear for the markets. 

Transports-SP500-030919-1.png

The current set up suggests that the correction that started last week is not yet complete and any bounce will likely be a good opportunity to reposition portfolios in the short-term until a better entry point to increase exposure is achieved. 

The problem with statements like these is that those of the “permanently bullish” mindset tend to extrapolate the analysis into the onset of the next major “bear market.”  Such is certainly not the intent, nor is it a suggestion to sell everything and hide in cash. 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:25 PM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Complacency has made a comeback. VIX shorts have risen to levels last seen in Oct just before year-end rout.

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8:12 AM - 10 Mar 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:30 PM

Chinese and N Koreans seem to be colluding, from the same playbook, and playing games....

 

BloombergVerified account @business
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Any strength in the yuan will likely be restrained as top China officials delivered a subtle push-back against Washington trade demands

 

Any strength in the yuan will likely be restrained as China’s top trade and monetary policy officials delivered this weekend a subtle push-back against trade demands made by Washington, analysts and investors said.

People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang signaled that China’s exchange-rate fixing mechanism will remain in place, suggesting that any upside in the yuan from its current 6.65-to-6.90 range against the dollar is limited, for now, said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, the Singapore-based head of foreign-exchange strategy at NatWest Markets.
Yi said the yuan exchange-rate formation mechanism is in line withGroup-of-20 standards and is decided by the market, as officials avoided any mention of a one-sided pledge by Beijing to hold its currency stable. Still, the governor said the two sides have reached consensus on many “crucial” issues.
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Read more: China Pushes Against U.S. Trade Demands on Enforcement, Yuan

https://www.bloomber...nst-u-s-demands



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:39 PM

Bearish interpretation of the data last week

 

  1. For the first time in seven months, the pace of job creation in the cyclically-sensitive US transportation services industry stalled out. At least we know that the steep correction in this part of the stock market isn't exactly devoid of deteriorating macro conditions.

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    Don't look now but the 10-year GoC yield is 2 bps away from rallying into an inversion with the policy rate; and we are now within 13 bps of seeing the same thing unfold in the USA (top end of the band). Recession risks are high and are rising.

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    The key in today's data was the 0.3% drop in the index of aggregate hours worked to a 3-month low. Even if you love the HH survey, who cares how many bodies get hired when they’re twiddling their thumbs and watching the clock (it sure is nice to get paid for doing nothing)?

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    An old Merrill pal tipped me off that cheerleader Kudlow called for a recession in May/16 when NFP came in at +38k. Ahhh...the difference between being a TV host when Obama is in charge and being in the WH under the "alternative facts" DJT regime.

 



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:47 PM

Powell downplays recession fears in ‘60 Minutes’ interview

Powell added that said he didn’t think President Donald Trump could fire him. “The law is clear that I have a four-year term. And I fully intend to serve it,” he said.

 

https://www.marketwa...d=mw_latestnews



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:57 PM

We’ve been warning about the rising risk of a domestic and global growth slowdown. On that front, it was an unequivocally bad week for investors still bullish on global growth.

  • China’s economy just turned “chaotically south” with Chinese exports plunging -20.7% in February
  • In Europe, "a weakening in economic data points to a sizeable reduction in the pace of economic expansion that will extend into the current year." Those are ECB head honcho Mario Draghi’s own words this week during a press conference announcing new easing measures for banks
  • Here at home, the U.S. Jobs report came in much weaker than expected, adding just 20,000 jobs in February

Here’s how Reuters recapped the news:

“Wall Street’s main indexes fell on Friday, after data showed U.S. job growth almost stalled in February, adding to concerns of a slowdown in global growth sparked by weak China export data and a prolonged slowdown in the eurozone.

As you may already know, our primary goal at Hedgeye is to help investors position themselves for the big, trending, macro moves that meaningfully drive asset prices.

That’s it.

Bottom line? We’re sticking with our macro knitting—there’s zero change to our global economic outlook. We reiterate our calls on #GrowthSlowing in China, Europe and the United States.

Below is some smart Weekend Reading to keep you proactively prepared for the next big market move. 



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 08:00 PM

Market Breaks, Gold Fakes
Carl Swenlin |  March 08, 2019 at 05:54 PM

 

It took over two weeks, but the market top we've been looking for finally materialized. Price broke down through a rising bottoms line that goes back to the beginning of January. Also violated was the bottom of the trading range that has lasted over two weeks.  At very overbought levels, the daily PMO finally topped and crossed down through the signal line. I am assuming that this is the beginning of a move that could possibly retest the December lows, but more clarification on that later.

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The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here!

 

https://stockcharts....gold-fakes.html



#9 opinionated

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Posted 10 March 2019 - 10:03 PM

Reversal signal on the Vix, Gold cycle targets 1273 Bonds cycles lower this week as well.   I see a Major risk on week, and verey much think they pump the good news on trade whether real or not.

 

My personal thoughts are just as you say but a quick run up to make a lower high/right shoulder.

 

But you make some very worrisome points no doubt.

 

Thanks DT



#10 redfoliage2

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 08:35 AM

it looks a fake pop up right now........................