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ST UP, IT DOWN, grinding higher, OPEX games continue


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 07:49 AM

It has been a good rally since the intraday low last Friday. 

Yep,  not a great rally, less than 3% but still grinding higher, typical OPEX week action, momentum stalling upwards, but 

the bulls have managed to keep it going, for another day.

 

I still remain UNCONVINCED this rally can go much further but... follow the market....

 

I tried but could not get a decent fill on additional QQQ JUN puts, finally gave up about 1pm yesterday. But, good NQ trades, mainly long. 

 

This from the GMM chap:

 

Thank You, Mr. Gundlach
Posted on March 13, 2019by macromon

In our Monday post, we stated,

Absolutely stunning to see such large budget deficits as far as the eye can see with the actual and projected unemployment rate under 5 percent. What kind of budget deficit beast will we run if we have a recession?  Will demand for Treasury securities be there to finance, say, a $2 trillion deficit? – GMM

Jeff Gundlach illustrates our concern in a chart from his presentation today, Highway To Hell 

 

gundlach.png?w=640

What Does Ray Dalio Think?

Wow,  more than $2 trillion in new Treasury issuance hitting the market during the next recession.  No wonder Fed Chair Jay Powell looked a little pale on 60 Minutes on Sunday night,

We are not so sure the markets can absorb that forcing the Fed to finance a yuuge portion as they did indirectly during the first few rounds of QE.   The question is how will a new round of effective monetization of potentially $2 trillion-plus annual deficits impact confidence in/and the demand for the dollar?

Hedge fund great, Ray Dalio has an idea,

Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio predicted the U.S. economy is about two years from a downturn, which will see the dollar plunge as the government prints money to fund a swelling deficit…

“We have to sell a lot of Treasury bonds, and we as Americans will not be able to buy all those treasury bonds,” he said. “The Federal Reserve will have to print more money to make up for the deficit, will have to monetize more, and that’ll cause a depreciation in the value of the dollar.”  – Ray Dalio, Bloomberg, Sept 2018

That is Game Over, folks.   No one cares.  That is why you should worry even more.

https://global-macro...ou-mr-gundlach/



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 07:50 AM

Good summary here:

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 07:51 AM

Just plain GREED, not EXTREME

 

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 07:54 AM

Looking at BA chart to see if there is a BUY in there.... but this down move, so far, is not really that much when you look at the big gain during past few months! 

Patiently waiting... will do a credit spread if it looks good, but look at those BA option premiums!!!!

@DougKass
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$BA shares down another -$8/share in premarket. The self confident Bulls on this name no doubt will continue to be confident this morning (in the media). @realmoney

3:55 AM - 13 Mar 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 07:55 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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The #ECB is the problem for European Banks, Deutsche Bank says. ECB’s policy of negative rates has created “smell of panic” that has eroded confidence among investors and savers while penalizing European banks by about €8bn per year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-13/the-ecb-is-the-problem-for-european-banks-deutsche-bank-says 

D1iKop8WoAEP0dI.jpg
4:05 AM - 13 Mar 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 07:57 AM

  • Latest data on total federal receipts shows them at the lowest level as % of GDP since early 2013. Unquestionably a bullish factor for stocks. (Whether it is good for the deficit is a separate question.)

    D1fBitiU0AAXFhT.png
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58xtpQ7u_bigger.jpgTom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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And in case you wonder what spending looks like, here is that comparison. Every time we get tax receipts up to 18%, we get a recession. So Congress needs to stop thinking it can spend more than that amount.

D1fCcU9UwAAzzQp.png
1:27 PM - 12 Mar 2019

 



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 07:59 AM

Sven HenrichVerified account @NorthmanTrader
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Sven Henrich Retweeted Carl Quintanilla

In case you think the global slowdown doesn't impact the US

Sven Henrich added,

Carl QuintanillaVerified account @carlquintanilla
"S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline 3.4% in Q1, marking first contraction in nearly 3 yrs and following 5 straight qtrs of double-digit growth. S&P 500 companies that generate 50%+ of sales outside US are expected to see an outsized 11.2% decline.…
5:40 AM - 13 Mar 2019


#8 robo

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 08:01 AM

I will be trading VXXB....

 

The VIX Is at it Again…

At the risk of beating a dead horse, let’s take another look at the Volatility Index (VIX)

20190313-MM-01.png

When we looked at this chart last week, we noted how the VIX was, once again, sitting right on its lower Bollinger Band. Previous similar setups often led to an immediate pop higher in volatility and an immediate decline in the broad stock market. We figured this was a caution sign for stocks heading into last week. And, exercising a little caution last week turned out to be a good thing. The S&P 500 started the week by gapping up to 2817. Then it reversed, and headed lower for five straight days.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/


Edited by robo, 13 March 2019 - 08:01 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 08:47 AM

Lately, my eyes have been straying from the screen in front of me to those in the edges.... and on VXXB this morning. 

 

WILL BUY with a low 29 handle, and lower



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 13 March 2019 - 08:47 AM

 

I will be trading VXXB....

 

The VIX Is at it Again…

At the risk of beating a dead horse, let’s take another look at the Volatility Index (VIX)

20190313-MM-01.png

When we looked at this chart last week, we noted how the VIX was, once again, sitting right on its lower Bollinger Band. Previous similar setups often led to an immediate pop higher in volatility and an immediate decline in the broad stock market. We figured this was a caution sign for stocks heading into last week. And, exercising a little caution last week turned out to be a good thing. The S&P 500 started the week by gapping up to 2817. Then it reversed, and headed lower for five straight days.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/

 

jeez, I just posted similar

did not look at the update thread so I did not see your post!

 

Good luck to both of us