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ST up, IT up: SPX 2900 or 2650


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:43 AM

Which comes first, SPX 2900 or 2650?

More likely, 2900, but 2650 will follow.

 

Irrational exuberance should send the VIX to a 10 handle or even a 9 handle as was in January 2018. 

 

This is a repeat of that market behavior.

 

If you have more time on your hands you can also trade the Brit Pound, GBP/USD, as the Brexit fiasco plays out ...It is at 1.3260 now, could quickly soar to above 1.35, depending on the vote  there today and the EU's reaction. Of course, it can also sink to below 1.30 in a hurry.

 

Lower $US translates into higher equities. 

 

This is a somewhat melodramatic headline, but there is some substance in the content:

 

Sentiment Speaks: Is The Brexit Debacle Going To Crash The Market... Again?

https://seekingalpha...ng-crash-market

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:43 AM

I am looking for the rest of the week to be down 



#3 12SPX

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:50 AM

It is very interesting reading the different things going on.  I think with all of the economic pressures from around the world we may see 2900 but its not going to be a straight up affair, also maybe because we have moved up so fast.  I think we will be flat to down for today and tomorrow too, however think there is a floor around 2775 due to my analysis of expiration cycles, shouldn't go below that but who knows in todays market lol!!  It's interesting there is little reaction to no meeting until April with Trump and Xi!



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:51 AM

TIM ORD nailed this rally:

 

https://stockcharts....ch-12-2019.html



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:52 AM

It is very interesting reading the different things going on.  I think with all of the economic pressures from around the world we may see 2900 but its not going to be a straight up affair, also maybe because we have moved up so fast.  I think we will be flat to down for today and tomorrow too, however think there is a floor around 2775 due to my analysis of expiration cycles, shouldn't go below that but who knows in todays market lol!!  It's interesting there is little reaction to no meeting until April with Trump and Xi!

 

Technically, very bullish

 

Otherwise: floating in thin air, fizzling, denying reality

 

The "Otherwise" always wins out, ultimately



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:54 AM

BEARS are almost an extinct species after almost 3 months of vertical ascent, but here is one:

Don't Ignore The Warning Signs: A Market Meltdown Might Be Approaching

 

https://seekingalpha...ght-approaching



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:55 AM

One of my favorite pages:

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:58 AM

from WSJ:

 

Market Facts
  • The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since Nov. 7 and 4.1% below its September record Wednesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, meanwhile, finished at its highest level since mid-October, 5.7% off its August peak. The Nasdaq is up 15% for the year and on track for its best quarter since the first quarter of 2012. 
     
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors rose in a session for the eighth time this year on Wednesday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A ninth such occurrence would mark the highest quarterly total since the second quarter of 2016, when it happened 11 times. 
     
  • Options volumes on Boeing shares hit at least a two-year high Tuesday, with some traders looking at a 7% advance in its shares from that day’s closing price. Some of the most popular contracts on Monday and Tuesday were bullish calls that pay out if the shares jumped to $400 or $410, according to data provider Trade Alert. The stock closed up 0.5% Wednesday, and options activity remained elevated. 
Key Events

U.S. jobless claims are expected to rise to 224,000 from 223,000. The figures are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET.

U.S. import prices for February are expected to rise 0.4% from the prior month. They will also be out at 8:30 a.m.

U.S. new-home sales for January, slated for 10 a.m., are expected to inch up to an annual rate of 622,000 from 621,000 a month earlier.

Natural-gas inventories will be out at 10:30 a.m. Stockpiles are expected to have fallen 209 billion cubic feet last week, more than average for this time of year, according to the average target of 12 analysts and traders surveyed by the Journal. 

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appears before the House Ways and Means Committee at 9 a.m. and the Senate Finance Committee at 1:30 p.m. to discuss the latest White House budget proposal.

 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:59 AM

Tuesday, March 12, 2019
Milestones: "Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $501 Billion, Balance Sheet Falls Below $4 Trillion. 'Autopilot' Engaged "
 
Remember, the Fed is letting their holdings mature not selling into the market, so the transmission effect is more diffuse and delayed than when they were buying. There is an effect on the treasury who will have to issue debt to fund both the ongoing deficits and the paper that isn't being rolled but so far they seem to have found buyers.

From Wolf Street: 

The albatross of $617 billion in bonds that mature in over 10 years. 
US-Fed-Balance-sheet-2019-03-07overall.pOver the next few months, the Fed is expected to announce its new plan for its balance sheet. Meanwhile, as we’re riveted to the edge of our seat, the old plan continues on autopilot, and February was one of the few months when the Treasury “roll-off,” as Chairman Jerome Powell likes to call it, hit the “caps.”

In February, the Fed shed $57 billion in assets, according to the Fed’s balance sheet for the week ended March 6, released this afternoon. This slashed the assets on its balance sheet to $3,969 billion, the lowest since December 2013. Via its “balance sheet normalization,” the Fed has now shed $501 billion. And since peak-balance-sheet at the end of 2014, the Fed has shed $547 billion:

 By comparison, the ECB’s balance sheet assets now exceed 40% of GDP, and the Bank of Japan’s assets amount to 101% of GDP....During peak-balance-sheet at the end of 2014, total assets ($4.52 trillion) amounted to 26% of GDP. Today’s assets amount to 19.4% of GDP. In the years before QE started, the balance sheet ran around 6% of GDP.


Edited by dTraderB, 14 March 2019 - 08:00 AM.


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 08:00 AM

Who cares? 

 

Thursday, March 14, 2019
"China industrial output growth falls to 17-year low, more support steps expected"
 
From Reuters:

Growth in China’s industrial output fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of the year and the jobless rate rose, pointing to further weakness in the world’s second-biggest economy that is likely to trigger more support measures from Beijing. 
But a mixed bag of major data on Thursday also showed property investment was picking up, while overall retail sales were sluggish but steady, suggesting the economy is not in the midst of a sharper slowdown.

China is ramping up assistance for the economy as 2019 growth looks set to plumb 29-year lows, but support measures are taking time to kick in. Most analysts believe activity may not convincingly stabilise until the middle of the year.

Premier Li Keqiang last week announced hundreds of billions of dollars in additional tax cuts and infrastructure spending, even as officials vowed they would not resort to massive stimulus like in the past, which produced swift recoveries in China and strong reflationary pulses worldwide....
...MUCH MORE