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"A gift for the bears"


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 07:42 PM

From the link:

 

 

And whenever this happens I believe it is a gift for the bears.

 

Take a look at the blue verical lines on the chart below, which mark each time this pattern has repeated in the past six months. Focus on what happens next. It is always what happens next in the market that matters — not many indicators are consistent as this one – a sell off every time and usually hard downs the next day (tomorrow).

 

For the chart and some more perspective:

 

THE GIFT FOR THE BEARS

 

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#2 pedro

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 08:48 PM

So the red and green horizontals mark when your 'train track' IT trend reverses direction.

Then when your upper indicator reverses direction, IN LINE/SAME DIRECTION, with the IT trend, you get your tailwinds reversal signals.

Buy (green) or sell (red), depending on the prevailing trend.

 

I'm on a similar signal of my own for tomorrow ... a set up but not quite triggered yet.

 

I use three time frames, and so I have the IT favoring a selloff, but not LT.      (And I favor trading off IT lining up with LT)

Any clues on how you construct the train track trend?    Pretty smooth, yet appears responsive too.



#3 da_cheif

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Posted 14 March 2019 - 09:29 PM

From the link:

 

 

And whenever this happens I believe it is a gift for the bears.

 

Take a look at the blue verical lines on the chart below, which mark each time this pattern has repeated in the past six months. Focus on what happens next. It is always what happens next in the market that matters — not many indicators are consistent as this one – a sell off every time and usually hard downs the next day (tomorrow).

 

For the chart and some more perspective:

 

THE GIFT FOR THE BEARS

 

 

the biggest up day in history on opex would be a great gift for the bulls    .....being bearish is easy.,,anybody can do it



#4 12SPX

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 07:42 AM

Doesn't look like much of a selloff is going to happen today lol!!



#5 Waver

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 08:36 AM

12SPX - it is way too early to know what will happen between now and 4 PM EST

#6 robo

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 08:49 AM

Doesn't look like much of a selloff is going to happen today lol!!

So this is the buybacks last hurrah... they are going nuts now, hoping to raise prices and attract retail next week... if this turns out to be "Sell and go away in March" there will be no buyers... Retail has been getting out for some time now, explaining weak fund flows.

 

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

 

 

Taking profits?

http://www.wsj.com/m...-moneyflow.html


Edited by robo, 15 March 2019 - 08:57 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#7 12SPX

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 10:04 AM

12SPX - it is way too early to know what will happen between now and 4 PM EST

Really.... no kidding, thats why the "lol"also why are prefer selling out of the money options.  Odds are favoring the upside though, doesn't seem like it can get pushed down here much.  



#8 diogenes227

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 10:23 AM

Doesn't look like much of a selloff is going to happen today lol!!

From the link:

 

 

Okay, what if it doesn’t sell down? Well, that will be particularly bullish and I’ll take that up when and if it goes that way. As Trader Vic Sperandeo would say “if the market doesn’t do what’s expected, it usually does the opposite twice as much.”

 

yes.gif


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#9 pdx5

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 03:37 PM

In real world, China can not accept any deal which reduces their exports.

Because that will cause mass unemployment and mass revolution led by a Mao Jr.

 

If China makes a deal to buy more American products, that automatically reduces their manufacturing volume.

Which again means more mass of workers unemployed. But China is famous for deception and will not sign

any deal which can not be fudged. So expect US foreign trade deficits to keep rising. 

 

I have not seen any deal items which can be good for both. China can not reduce exports and US can not live

with current level of imports/trade deficits. It is a problem which has no easy solutions.


Edited by pdx5, 15 March 2019 - 03:38 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 typicalbear

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Posted 15 March 2019 - 08:17 PM

In real world, China can not accept any deal which reduces their exports.

Because that will cause mass unemployment and mass revolution led by a Mao Jr.

 

If China makes a deal to buy more American products, that automatically reduces their manufacturing volume.

Which again means more mass of workers unemployed. But China is famous for deception and will not sign

any deal which can not be fudged. So expect US foreign trade deficits to keep rising. 

 

I have not seen any deal items which can be good for both. China can not reduce exports and US can not live

with current level of imports/trade deficits. It is a problem which has no easy soluti

 

 

Well put....and can't believe anything coming from the White House.