Jump to content



Photo

CARL & MARK: a TOP? (yeah, count me in !)


  • Please log in to reply
28 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 01:44 PM

Well, fellow traders, our distinguished host, MARK YOUNG, and the venerable CARL SWENLIN, are both suggesting a TOP is 

almost here. With such expert company, I am also looking for a top. 

 

But, note that no one really believes there is a crash coming or the bear market resumes. 

 

Mark Young: Wall Street Sentiment - A Top?
Mark Young |  March 15, 2019 at 06:39 PM

 

Well, I'm thinking that it's about time for a correction--and only a correction. First of all, we should contextualize the market. We're in a Bull Market Condition and have been for some 5 weeks now, and we predicted as much weeks prior to that based upon price action and the utility of Buy signals. In a Bull Market, one needs to be careful getting Bearish. Breadth is quite good and the Cumulative A/D Volume is making new highs for this rally.

15526891798441007156371.pngNot only that, but AAII is reporting 68% out of the market. There are a lot of investors who don't believe or trust the current market.

1552689201757817417649.pngSomething we always ask ourselves is, "Could something else in the Financial System be looming on the horizon?" Obviously, a major Financial meltdown would put a crimp in this Bull Market. So, if we look at those who lend money to companies in the financial industry, we can see that they are commanding NO risk premium on money loaned vs. non-financial companies. This, again, means that the insiders who lend are not worried about the Financial sector AT ALL. In fact, they are commanding lower rates than the non-Financial sector, which is very Bullish, in our experience.

15526892293341845979402.png

So, things look pretty good on the big picture and on the intermediate-term. Near term, however, we are overbought on all our stochastics, we're bumping up against the upper Bollinger band, we're just about to get one of our famous "Best Fade" Sell signals and TSP Talk's poll is showing 57% Bulls and just 25% Bears. That's generally Bearish for the week to come.

Now, I don't yet have confirmation from my very reliable Actual Position Poll saying the top is in or will be in, so it's premature to take any Bearish action, but soon I expect some short-term weakness. Just don't be too quick to pull the trigger on any shorts and, if you do try a short trade, it's probably not the time to be patient or aggressive. It's far too early to pull out the Bear suit.

Have a prosperous week!


Mark Steward Young
Wall St. Sentiment
http://www.wallstree...t.com/trial.htm

 

https://stockcharts....nt---a-top.html



#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 01:46 PM

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Short-Term Top Soon?
Carl Swenlin |  March 15, 2019 at 06:40 PM

 

At the end of last week I was looking forward to some more selling to extend the decline that had started from the March 4 top. But no. Price rebounded off last Friday's low, eventually setting a new high for the rally off the December lows. However, on Friday we got a signal that has me looking for a short-term market top very soon. The signal comes from the VIX panel on the chart below. You'll note that I use a different presentation of the VIX than what you will normally see. First I use a log scale to enhance the definition in the lower ranges, and I reverse the scale so that it provides an intuitive overbought/oversold display. Finally, I add Bollinger Bands so as to apply dynamic limits to the overbought/oversold range. When the VIX hits the top Bollinger Band, which happened today, it is a signal to look for a price top within a few days. As you can see from prior instances on the chart, this signal works pretty well, but, of course, no guarantees. Note: The high volume today is due to end-of-quarter options expiration and should not be interpreted as a blowoff or any other climactic internal event.

1552684040477670465193.png

The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here!



#3 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 01:51 PM

Sentiment Speaks: Is The Stock Market Finally Topping?
Summary

Outlining what it takes for a market to top.

We are nearing a market top based upon a number of indications.

My minimum downside expectation is 2600SPX, with an ideal expectation in the 2200SPX region.

 

So, my expectation is that the market will likely top out over the next week or two in this b-wave corrective rally, and drop back down to at least the 2520-2640SPX region. However, my primary expectation remains that we will drop down to the 2200SPX region in a c-wave to complete the a-b-c pattern for this correction off the 2018 high. The manner in which we drop off the impending high we strike will be instructive as to whether we can drop down to our ideal target or not. And, I will continue to provide that detailed analysis for my members in The Market Pinball Wizard service.

Lastly, I want to remind investors that this next drop should be viewed as a major buying opportunity. For years, our long-term expectation has been that the market will exceed the 3200SPX region before it tops out in the bull market off the 2009 lows. Moreover, based upon much of what I am seeing, I think there is a greater likelihood we can reach the 3500-4000 region by 2022/23. Once we move into 2020, I will likely have a much more narrowed target for a top in 2022/23.

https://seekingalpha...finally-topping



#4 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 01:56 PM

I don't know what a correction would look like in this environment. I thought the nearly 100 point dip we just had was enough, that was

almost a .38 retrace. At .5-.618 around 2600, and I think the whole bull run fails, to me that's too much damage. I can see 2780, about it though, that would not be considered a correction.


Edited by CLK, 17 March 2019 - 01:56 PM.


#5 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 01:56 PM

Getting rather crowded here at the top....

Market Rallies, Be Patient

As we have been discussing over the last several weeks, the sharp rally in stocks has gone too far, too quickly, so just be patient here and wait for a correction/consolidation to increase exposure. The rally this past week was positive but remains very narrow in terms of participation.

The break out of the recent consolidation range is bullish so you CAN increase exposure in portfolios modestly. However, the backdrop is not strong enough on a risk/reward basis to take the portfolio allocation model back to 100% just yet. 

Also, this rally remains concerning, as I stated last week:

“Take a look at the chart above. Beginning in 2016, I drew a bull trend channel for the market in the chart above (the dashed 45-degree black lines) which have contained the bull market rally since the 2009 lows.

In January 2018, the market made, as we stated then, and unsustainable break above that upper trend line. I add the horizontal black dashed line at that point and said that ultimately we would see a correction back the long-term bull trend line. 

Since then, exactly that has happened and rather than the market retesting the lower bullish trend line and then beginning a more normal advance, the market rocketed higher in 2-months to hit AND FAIL at the upper bullish trend line. 

If the last decade provides any clues, it is likely the market is going to remain range bound within this rising trend for now, which suggests that waiting for a better entry point to increase exposure will be rewarded.”

As we noted last week, wanted to be patient and wait for a rally. That rally ran faster than expected but broke above recent resistance. 

  • If you are overweight equities – take some profits and reduce portfolio risk on the equity side of the allocation. However, hold the bulk of your positions for now and let them run with the market.
  • If you are underweight equities or at target – rebalance portfolios to model weights currently. Hold positions for now and increase allocations in modestly as needed to get towards target weights. 

 

SP500-Chart1-031519.png

 

https://realinvestme...arning-03-16-19



#6 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 02:00 PM

B waves don't have a 5 wave structure.



#7 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 02:04 PM

I don't know what a correction would look like in this environment. I thought the nearly 100 point dip we just had was enough, that was

almost a .38 retrace. At .5-.618 around 2600, and I think the whole bull run fails, to me that's too much damage. I can see 2780, about it though,

that would not be considered a correction.

I think it goes back to at least that daily swing low a week ago. 

 

If it finds support there or lower near SPX 2700 and rebounds then there WILL be new SPX highs.

 

If no support there then it can go drop very quickly to trade with an SPX 2500 handle. 

 

There is more psychological and sentiment influence than technical and fundamentals: if a critical mass of dip buyers get burned then 

the market can tumble very quickly.



#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 02:08 PM

S&P 500 Weekly Update: Investor Worries Are Everywhere. Relax, This Is Still A Bull Market
Summary

The push/pull continues as investors remain in a confused and anxious state.

In just one short week, the technical picture has improved dramatically.

The global markets may be signaling "change", a "change" that is positive.

Market breadth continues to support the price action in the market.

https://seekingalpha...ill-bull-market



#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 02:14 PM

I still think VIX can trade below 10, even momentarily before an IT or LT top is in place. 

 

 

Deception

Deception.png?resize=177%2C83&ssl=1We’re back in the phase of markets where bears look like idiots and bulls look like geniuses. In 2018, following the US tax cuts, a growing economy and expanding earnings had bears look the fools as markets moved on to record high after record high. By September and October bears had thrown in the towel so relentless was the constant drift higher amid shrinking volumes, dying volatility and uniform bullish consensus. It was a very deceptive environment as divergences and negative signals were ignored and markets ended up dropping 20% into December.

For now bulls remain in full control of the action and bears need to prove their case. Keep in mind that so far this year markets remain inside the trading range of 2018, making 2019 currently an inside year. It can’t be stated with integrity that $SPX would be currently trading anywhere near 2800 if the Fed had not turned dovish.  For 10 years central banks have successfully levitated asset prices by being dovish. For 3 months in 2018 they weren’t dovish and it blew up in their faces. The big debate for 2019 will be if being dovish will once again succeed keeping the boogeyman at bay. So far the answer is a resounding yes. We’ll see what happens when the $VIX acts up for real. But don’t worry, Wall Street can’t even think of any catalyst for $VIX to rise. And so complacency was made great again and that, in itself, may be an act of deception.

 

https://northmantrad...17/deception-2/



#10 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,704 posts

Posted 17 March 2019 - 02:21 PM

@hmeisler
FollowFollow @hmeisler
More

30 dma of Equity put/call ratio. Right up @lighthousejerry 's alley.

D1yR1idWkAMQC2v.png
7:07 AM - 16 Mar 2019
 
10 dma of Naz TRIN is interesting.
D1yRC0PXcAA-v-M.png
7:04 AM - 16 Mar 2019
 
Transports still haven't taken out early December high.
D1yI61pX0AEa0bJ.png
6:28 AM - 16 Mar 2019