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Resilient BULLS hold the line as BEARS attack


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 06:06 PM

16:15 ET Dow +65.23 at 25914.1, Nasdaq +25.95 at 7714.47, S&P +10.46 at 2832.94 :

  • Nasdaq Composite +16.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +16.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 +13.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.1% YTD

..NYSE Adv/Dec 1949/929. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1891/1167.

 

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That was an exciting day that finally finished the cash session with BULLS tacking on another few SPX points and turning away a spirited BEAR attack .

Both ST & IT are still on a BUY but it does appear this is the 8th to 9th inning with no extra innings.for this great rally. 

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Stock Market Update 16:15 ET Dow +65.23 at 25914.1, Nasdaq +25.95 at 7714.47, S&P +10.46 at 2832.94 :

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 gained 0.4% on Monday in a session led by the cyclical sectors. Some follow-through buying interest amid a lack of "new" catalysts helped the market advance in front of the Fed's policy meeting this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.7%.

The S&P 500 energy (+1.4%), consumer discretionary (+1.1%), financials (+1.0%), and industrial (+0.9%) sectors outperformed the broader market. Conversely, the communication services (-0.8%), real estate (-0.5%), and utilities (-0.4%) sectors underperformed.

From a macro perspective, the market appeared uninterested by the latest developments pertaining to U.S.-China trade, Brexit, or slowing growth.

Specifically, a trade deal summit between President Trump and President Xi may not happen until June, according to the South China Morning Post; UK Speaker John Bercow warned PM Theresa May that he will not allow a third vote on the Brexit deal unless the proposal is substantially different from the previous versions; and Japan reported its third consecutive year-over-year decline in exports (-1.2%) for February.

Boeing (BA 372.28, -6.71, -1.8%) and Facebook (FB 160.47, -5.51, -3.3%), meanwhile, extended losses from last week on some familiar story lines.

The Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Transportation is investigating the FAA's approval of Boeing's 737-MAX aircraft. Facebook was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Needham, which warned that strategic, regulatory, and brand risks could create a negative network effect for the company.

Monday's session also featured a burst of M&A activity and speculation. Notable deals included Fidelity National Information Services (FIS 108.12, -0.76, -0.7%) acquiring Worldpay (WP 108.51, +9.83, +10.0%) in a $43 billion cash-and-stock deal and Deutsche Bank (DB 9.26, +0.38, +4.3%) confirming it is in merger talks with Commerzbank (CRZBY 8.67, +0.58, +7.2%).

U.S. Treasuries closed near their unchanged marks. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield increased one basis point each to 2.45% and 2.60%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 96.49. WTI crude rose 1.4% to $59.30/bbl, supported by news that OPEC canceled its April meeting and will let its current production cuts run until at least June.

In economic data, the NAHB Housing Market Index for March stood at 62 (Briefing.com consensus 63), unchanged from February.

Looking ahead, investors will receive Factory Orders for January on Tuesday.

 

  • Nasdaq Composite +16.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +16.0% YTD
  • S&P 500 +13.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +11.1% YTD

..NYSE Adv/Dec 1949/929. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1891/1167.



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 06:11 PM

  1. DSI for

    SPX 90

    Naz 90

  2.  

    Fast Money leaning bullish tonite. Cannot recall the last time this happened.

  3.  Helene Meisler Retweeted

    Seems BK and Grasso too, now bullish



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 06:14 PM

@Schuldensuehner
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JPM: It will be hard for Powell to really impress stocks at this point given elevated Fed expectations. Consensus now anticipates no '19 dots w/normalization ending in Sep at ~$1.3T reserve balance. To exceed would mean no dots in ’19 & ’20 w/reserves at ~$1.4T by Sept or earlier

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3:06 PM - 18 Mar 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 06:28 PM

OK, 

Noted. 

Stocks are poised for an 18% hit, warns economist who nailed last financial crisis

Shilling doesn’t see any major bubbles that are immediately “begging to be pricked,” so he’s looking for the upcoming bear market to bring about more of a “normal recession-related decline” of about 18% from Friday’s closing level.

That would surely sting, but that kind of decline would still be a far cry from the 78% drop by the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.34%  in the wake of the dot-com bubble and the 48% retreat by the S&P 500 SPX, +0.37%  in the mid-1970s.

 

https://www.marketwa...isis-2019-03-18



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 06:32 PM

SocGen

 

 

Here’s their two-part 2019 scenario

 

1) We see the S&P 500 in a 2700-3000 range in 1H19, as the end-2018 correction provides ‘breathing space’. The rebound in the equity risk premium toward its average make the US equity markets less sensitive to the bond yield outlook, while the more data-dependent Fed should act as a support.

2) The S&P 500 drops to 2500 by end-2019 as fears of a US recession build: top-line revenue growth decelerates, and profit margin are squeezed, labour costs rise, as does wage growth. The difficulty of passing on higher costs to consumers narrows margins further and reduces incentives for investment and hiring.

https://www.marketwa...frog-2019-03-18



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 07:07 AM

Green shoots above ZERO line

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator


Edited by dTraderB, 19 March 2019 - 07:08 AM.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 07:12 AM

@Schuldensuehner
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“Short European equities” now the most crowded trade for the first time on record in BofAML Fund Manager survey, replacing “Long EM” which drops to 4th behind #2 Long US$ and #3 Long FAANG+BAT (#Facebook, #Amazon, #Apple, #Netflix, #Google + #Baidu, #Alibaba, #Tencent).

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2:46 AM - 19 Mar 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 07:13 AM

Did not expect this:

 

@Schuldensuehner
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#China hard landing has replaced trade war as #1 risk in BofAML Fund Manager Survey.

D2AyMQXW0AAtv3f.jpg
2:43 AM - 19 Mar 2019


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 07:17 AM

The Brits in crisis... manufactured by themselves!

 

Financial TimesVerified account @FinancialTimes
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Theresa May might hold another vote on her fragile Brexit plan next week, ministers have said, despite House of Commons Speaker John Bercow saying he would not allow one unless the deal is substantively changed

 

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Sven Henrich Retweeted nicholas cecil

Kick that can until it flies...

Sven Henrich added,

nicholas cecilVerified account @nicholascecil
Theresa May set to plead with Brussels for a long Brexit postponement today as her DUP allies and Tory right wingers show no sign of baling her out of the impasse at the Commons https://www. standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-set-to-beg-brussels-for-escape-clause-that-could-delay-brexit-by-two-or-three-months-a4095401.html 
4:48 AM - 19 Mar 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 19 March 2019 - 07:22 AM.


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 07:20 AM

Not a fan of overbought & oversold....

@ripsterlicious
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Replying to @hmeisler

interesting. should be fun especially with DAX overbought at daily and weekly chart resistance

 


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4:32 AM - 19 Mar 2019