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TRADE WAR jitters scare BULLS, bearish Daily Candle


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#11 robo

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 09:42 PM

LOL.... It is possible the next move for the VIX will surprise traders, but I'll be keeping it small and staying nimble.

 

The VXF daily chart below is clear on when to buy and sell in a market controlled by buy programs.  I will change if I need to, but for now it's clear. I track Sentiment, Cycles and a few other indicators, but as long has VXF stays above the 9 EMA and the 13 DMA I will stay long. You will get some whipsaws and sometimes I buy early, but I use Risk Management when buying tranches....

 

You can see this on my charts below and you could use your own data. Maybe even have a better system. I like to keep mine very simple. VXF is the S Fund at TSP and many buy and sell this type fund often.  It's a better snapshot of the entire market then just using the S&P 500. If you buy both you now have the total stock market of around 5000 stocks. Much less then 5000 stocks these days.

 

I'm currently using a 15min, 1 hour, and daily chart for trading. The daily is for the Vanguard funds and the others are for VST trading. When it all stops working I will modify them, but for now the trend really is your friend. That is  thanks to the Buy Backs and the buy programs that continue to just BTFD!

 

My daily chart... VXF is the fund I have used for many years 4500 mid and small cap stocks. My system is as simple as you can get. The VST trading is much harder due to using leverage. I do have a few paid services I use, and I trade GDXJ the most.

 

https://stockcharts....019&a=652877536

 

Bottom Line: It will be clear to you whenever I buy and sell, but sometimes I buy early or bigger tranches at extremes...  Like Dec 2018 bottom... I was buying some tranches early Brother, and they were much larger then I usually buy!  That is were the sentiment comes in and other indicators I use.... 


Edited by robo, 19 March 2019 - 09:51 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#12 robo

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Posted 19 March 2019 - 10:04 PM

The reason I use the histograms so much is I like to track and try and spot patterns for trading along with some other indicators.   However, first you must be able to see them, and they can change quickly. I started tracking them closer after I started following/tracking the SKI system....

 

I don't use it for trading, but find it very interesting. It is based on hard data and signals from patterns. 

 

Last Post for me today!

 

http://www.321gold.c...rn/current.html

 

http://www.321gold.c...uthor=Jeff Kern


Edited by robo, 19 March 2019 - 10:07 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 06:39 AM

LOL

 

@OddStats
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Golden Cross on $HYG, the high-yield bond ETF. The last time this happened was Oct 1, 2018. Two days later, $SPX peaked before the Flash Bear Market. This is a coincidence, not predictive. Put your pants back on.

4:13 PM - 19 Mar 2019

 



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 06:41 AM

@Schuldensuehner
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Global stocks dipped as investors adopted cautious stance ahead of Fed & further news on US-China trade talks, where negotiators at odds. FOMC meeting important as dovish exp elevated & long pos in UST highly stretched. Fed seen unveiling end of QT. US 10y at 2.6%. Brent at $69.

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11:29 PM - 19 Mar 2019


#15 dTraderB

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 06:45 AM

FED day, again.

 

FROM WSJ:

Investors Are Still Betting on a Fed Rate Pause

Wall Street predicts that the central bank won't lift borrowing costs this year. 

 

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at the conclusion of Wednesday’s meeting, but analysts are worried that some investors are banking on a long-term dovish policy stance from the central bank.

Federal-funds futures, used to place bets on the course of central-bank policy, showed 25% of investors on Tuesday expected a Fed rate cut this year, while no investors predict a rate increase, according to data from CME Group.

Recent mixed data on the health of the U.S. economy has sent conflicting signals to investors. Hiring unexpectedly slowed sharply in February and manufacturing activity has eased. Investors are also grappling with political uncertainties over the U.S.-China trade spat and Brexit.

In addition, inflation has remained muted, easing concerns for now that the economy is overheating. That would mean less of a need for the Fed to lift borrowing costs. At the same time, consumer spending has remained robust, household confidence has rebounded following the partial government shutdown and fourth-quarter earnings season was largely better than feared.

“The Fed’s most difficult task will be to remain dovish while not being so dovish where it raises concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy,” Andrew Acheson, director of U.S. growth at Amundi Pioneer. “A surprise is unlikely, but with a press conference, a verbal mistake from [Fed Chair] Powell is the biggest risk as opposed to an actual change in policy.”

There are two things some analysts and economists say could push central bankers to change their tune on standing pat: a pickup in inflation or a sudden downturn in U.S. economic growth.

A dent in optimism about the economy has been one of the reasons Treasury yields have come down from their November highs. Expectations for dovish policy have pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note lower this year. The yield settled Tuesday at 2.614%, compared with 2.605% Monday. That is well below November's seven-year high of 3.232%. Yields fall when bond prices rise.

Another key issue for investors: the Fed’s balance-sheet runoff. Investors are looking for more details on how the central bank plans to end shrinking its $4 trillion asset portfolio, which it began unwinding in October 2017. If the Fed hints that the runoff will go beyond this fall, stocks will likely take a hit in the short term, according to Bryce Doty, senior vice president and senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors.

“Investors expect a plan that shows the Fed is going to stop reducing its balance sheet sometime this year,” Mr. Doty said. If a runoff drags on, “stock investors are going to be disappointed,” he said.



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 07:44 AM

will be away for two business meetings today....

 

hope to get in some trading, especially after the FED minutes



#17 robo

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 08:00 AM

Plenty of Bulls out there that did this..... Rode the entire 20% move down in late 2018. If they were buy and hold  using IWM or my VXF it was around 25%...   LOL....  I rode some of it down too, but I was trading VXXB....

 

Jeff Clark's Market Minute Why You Must Have Cash

“You must be fully invested during market rallies,” a concerned reader wrote me recently. “If you’re holding cash, you are going to underperform the market.”

 

The S&P 500 first crossed above 2800 back on January 17, 2018. That was 14 months ago. Yesterday, the index closed at 2832. So, if you were 100% invested for the entire time, then you’ve made a little better than 1% on your money.

 

But, if you routinely took some money off the table when conditions got overheated, then you would have avoided some of the large downdrafts in the market. And you would have had cash available to put to work when conditions got oversold.

 

The red arrows on the chart point to days when we published cautionary advice here in Market Minute (catch up herehere, and here). Technical indicators like the Volatility Index (VIX), the McClellan Oscillators (NYMO and NAMO), the CBOE Put/Call ratio (CPC), and others were warning of overbought conditions. So, it seemed prudent to raise a little cash.

Of course, we ran the risk of underperforming the market if stocks continued to rally – which they did following our exit in January last year, and have done since early February this year. But, when the market fell, as it did last February and last December, we had money available to put to work when the technical conditions reached oversold levels.

The blue arrows on the chart point to days when we published bullish advice here in Market Minute (here and here). The technical indicators had reached extremely oversold levels. And, while we didn’t nail the exact bottom of the market decline, we were able to buy stocks at far cheaper prices than where we had sold them previously.

Selling even just a small portion of your portfolio into overbought conditions, and then buying back in when things get oversold, can have a very positive effect on your overall returns.

 

https://www.jeffclar...must-have-cash/


Edited by robo, 20 March 2019 - 08:05 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#18 CLK

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 08:52 AM

This was a pre-Fed warning that they better deliver and not be complacent about the recent rally,

sell buttons are ready in case they don't.



#19 robo

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 09:10 AM

This was a pre-Fed warning that they better deliver and not be complacent about the recent rally,

sell buttons are ready in case they don't.

LONG TZA and VXXB today....  Stops at Breakeven.....(VST trades)

 

Added and still holding some shares from yesterday.... 03/20/2019  09:37:51 Bought 500 TZA @ 9.665   

 

These are Beer Money trades for me..... 

 

 03/19/2019  08:15:03 Bought 500 TZA @ 9.34

 

VST/Daytrading chart only.... LOLR remains up...SS

 

https://stockcharts....985&a=652877527

 

I don't know how this will play out, but I'm trading the signals win, lose or draw.....  I will have to give the edge to the buy programs since they have just BTFD nonstop for weeks.   The daily remains on a buy signal, but BTing the EMA/MAs now...The trades are free so I will just sell and buy back later if need be....


Edited by robo, 20 March 2019 - 09:16 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#20 robo

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Posted 20 March 2019 - 09:47 AM

LOL... Looking good for keeping the VIX down so far....  Watching the show!


“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore