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[zoropb]

Level is:   8 / 4

 

 

We used up the short term big energy but I am noticing a build up of longer term negative energy that is quite troubling. Not sure what to make of it yet except that, there is a massive move that is going to happen at one point.  I am talking about 400-600 points again. similar to Sept. Im staying on it and when things get clearer I will report it. We are in uncharted territory in the data. It can unleash at anytime because it is now sitting there and building.

[leverage4]

Good afternoon, Z.  Thanks, as always, for your contributions.  As to where we are, I have been truly surprised by the unrelenting duration of the rally from 12/24.  At the same time, it never felt healthy to me at least for the intermediate term.  I know that many have commented that it has been a garden variety relief rally, but it didn't seem like it to me.  Not to mix in fundamentals, but it seemed overdone .... a Pavlov response to a change in fed bias w/o an appreciation of why the fed might have had to change that bias.  It has seemed overly simplistic to say that the fed had it wrong in 2018 and in December they saw the light and the opportunities for a goldilocks future or that they caved to political jawboning.  With all the resources at their disposal, they have every opportunity to view threats on the horizon and their implications.  In any event, any time the market moves too far in one direction due to a sudden switch from risk on to risk off (or vice versa) as if it's a totally binary matter, there is hell to pay in an equal and opposite direction.... or sometimes more than equal.

 

I don't know if this is why you are seeing what you are seeing, but I thought I would throw it out there.  I trust technical measures more than my assessment of fundamental issues, but sometimes I like to look at the economic situation to assess the degree of caution I should exercise.

 

Thanks again and best to you.

 

Lev