WHY?
Foreign investors sell $1.6 billion of China stocks on Monday, the biggest single-day sale on record https://bloom.bg/2FxMM9Q
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:15 AM
WHY?
Foreign investors sell $1.6 billion of China stocks on Monday, the biggest single-day sale on record https://bloom.bg/2FxMM9Q
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:17 AM
All I am saying is that a TOPPING PROCESS can be quite volatile!
Not straight line down!
The Big Picture is that Mr. Market looks like it is continuing to undergo a topping process. The Near Term Picture remains uncertain. There you go... @realmoney So, depending of risk appetite and timeframe - trade and invest accordingly.
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:19 AM
Maybe I will buy a few of this beaten down infamous bank stock
500, initially
Deutsche Bank shares keep falling w/ 10y yields in negative territory.
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:21 AM
Since talking about Fibs, I still find it intriguing the 61.8% of the $SPY 10yr bull run lines up pretty well with the top of the 2 prior bubbles.
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:23 AM
Friday's sell off is testing the uptrend from the December lows. Unlike, previous sell-offs, the market is not oversold yet and there may be more downside risk. Lots of support at lower levels may be better entry points. $SPY $TLT https://realinvestmentadvice.com/what-the-fed-really-said-03-22-19/ …
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:24 AM
https://stockcharts....idays-drop.html
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:28 AM
buy back ONE NQ @ 7335
now holding 3
Hope to close a few NQ puts today
Look at THIS!
s This The Final High And The Top Was In 2018?
Much has been made of the 10-year yield dropping below the 3-month yield. This week it was particularly acute. The equity market (stocks) plummeted as the yields fell hard. The US banks dropped significantly. When the scale of interest rates loses its normal 'sort order' of longer term (10-year or 30 year) rates having higher yields than shorter term (3-month or 1-year) rates, this is referred to as an inverted yield curve. While it does not make a top by itself, it is important. Follow me through why this looks the same as 2000- and 2007 to me.
In summary, it looks like a top and it feels like a top. The settings are all the same.
Graphs are a wonderful thing. They visualize the change quickly for us. However, portfolio managers all over the world are quickly diminishing the seriousness of this inversion as it takes months for a recession to occur after the inversion. The stock market will not wait for a recession to start to price one in.
I think the chart below presents a compelling case why we should pay attention. It is not just one rate crossing another that can be a clue, as it would appear that the complete collapse of the spreads between the rates can also be a clue. In 2000, 2006 and 2007, the rates compressed meaningfully.
So while its easy to move to cash, what if waiting a year is a better idea? I wanted to look a little closer at those two periods specifically to see if we can learn anything with respect to marking the top of the equity market timing. The chart below shows 20 years of bond yields.
https://stockcharts....oks-severe.html
Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:44 AM
A daily check for me....2.46/2.44... However, for VST trading it changes nothing.... My system doesn't care, and for now it's on a sell signal. That is for VXF/IWM because that's what I'm trading.
https://www.treasury...aspx?data=yield
LONG SDS and VXXB
Good Trading.
Edited by robo, 25 March 2019 - 08:48 AM.
" “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Posted 25 March 2019 - 09:05 AM
Flat VXXB @ $32.75 trading only SDS..... Waiting to see what the VIX smashers do next....
VXF signal = Cash
VST signal = SDS/VXXB
Good trading and the signal is very clear for now.... When the signal changes I will buy VXF again.... No guessing required.....
https://stockcharts....962&a=653980666
Edited by robo, 25 March 2019 - 09:09 AM.
" “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
Posted 25 March 2019 - 09:12 AM
wow! This NQ trading is fun!