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ST, IT short but bears fail to press home the advantage


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#11 pdx5

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Posted 25 March 2019 - 08:52 PM

Bears got shot down by the Mueller Report disclosure. Recession predicted 7/7 times on previous occasions of yield inversion.

But there is a time lag of few to several months after the inversion.


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#12 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 06:22 AM

Bears got shot down by the Mueller Report disclosure. Recession predicted 7/7 times on previous occasions of yield inversion.

But there is a time lag of few to several months after the inversion.

 

Too many trying to talk down the market but their talk is not being converted into ACTUAL SELLING; if it were so then SPX woudl have closed below 2780 yesterday and be down this morning. 

 

On the other side, bulls seem tired and unable to take it much higher, 

Maybe, there will be a catalyst that can motivate the bulls but I still remain bearish if a new daily swing high is not made.



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 06:58 AM

Recently it has gotten thinner, but I thought December to February were more active than usual.

 

Thinning Liquidity in Key Futures Market Worries Traders E-mini S&P 500 futures have gotten harder to trade since volatility shook U.S. stocks last year
E-mini S&P 500 futures are widely used on Wall Street to bet on market moves. Above, a trader at the NYSE on Friday. PHOTO: SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES
By 
Alexander Osipovich
March 25, 2019 8:00 a.m. ET
 

A retreat by traders from an important corner of the U.S. financial system has some worried it could make the stock market more susceptible to shocks.

E-mini S&P 500 futures, a huge market where over $200 billion changes hands on average daily, are widely used on Wall Street to bet on market moves or protect against adverse stock swings. The futures have gotten harder to trade since volatility shook U.S. stocks last year, according to trading data and market participants.

The futures track the S&P 500 index. When fresh economic news comes out, it is typically felt in E-mini futures first before affecting the stock market itself.

That is why any sign of diminished liquidity in E-minis concerns traders—an issue that has taken on added importance after the sudden moves in the stock and bond markets last week. Liquidity refers to the ability to buy or sell large quantities of an asset without pushing its price up or down.

Drying UpLiquidity in E-mini S&P 500 futures fell sharply late last year and remains at levels close to those last seen inthe 2008 financial crisis.Number of contracts being quoted near the best price*Source: Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan, JPMorgan*Within one point of the S&P 500's current level. Numbers are derived by averaging volume of quotes to buy and sell futures.Through March 20.
.contracts2008’09’10’11’12’13’14’15’16’17’18’1902,0004,0006,0008,00010,000March 2010x8,520 contracts

“Particularly if the market goes one way, that impact is going to be exacerbated in either an up move or a down move,” said Hallie Martin, a strategist with Deutsche Bank in New York.

One way to measure liquidity is to look at the number of price quotes publicly displayed on an exchange. This reflects the willingness of firms to buy or sell in a market and to broadcast that readiness.

By that measure—called order-book depth—liquidity in E-minis hit its lowest level in over a decade during December’s market turmoil, and remains near levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, according to research from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

It is typical for E-mini liquidity to thin during periods of market stress. But in past episodes of volatility, liquidity quickly returned to E-minis after markets stabilized. So far in 2019, the depth of the E-mini order book has recovered slowly and hasn’t returned to where it stood in September, before a sharp downturn began in the stock market, JPMorgan’s data shows.

“The weird thing is that markets haven’t been that volatile this quarter, but order-book depth hasn’t really recovered,” said Hovannes Jagaspanyan, an algorithmic trader in the Chicago office of Quantlab, a high-speed trading firm.

In 2017, it was often possible to buy or sell hundreds of E-mini contracts without affecting the price, but those days are long gone, said Darren Smith, a U.K.-based derivatives trader with UBS .

“During the London session, liquidity has fallen dramatically in the last few months,” he said.

Market experts suggested different theories behind the retreat in E-mini liquidity. Rick Lane, chief executive of Chicago-based financial software firm Trading Technologies, linked it to a broader shift away from transparent, on-exchange trading in recent years.

“Firms that need to do large-size trades just don’t feel as comfortable doing them on lit exchanges like they did in the past,” said Mr. Lane, whose firm’s technology is widely used in futures trading. “I think that’s part and parcel of what we’re seeing here.”

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Write to Alexander Osipovich at alexander.osipovich@dowjones.com

https://www.wsj.com/...ers-11553515200

 

https://www.wsj.com/...ers-11553515200



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 06:58 AM

Recently it has gotten thinner, but I thought December to February were more active than usual.

 

Thinning Liquidity in Key Futures Market Worries Traders E-mini S&P 500 futures have gotten harder to trade since volatility shook U.S. stocks last year
E-mini S&P 500 futures are widely used on Wall Street to bet on market moves. Above, a trader at the NYSE on Friday. PHOTO: SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES
By 
Alexander Osipovich
March 25, 2019 8:00 a.m. ET
 

A retreat by traders from an important corner of the U.S. financial system has some worried it could make the stock market more susceptible to shocks.

E-mini S&P 500 futures, a huge market where over $200 billion changes hands on average daily, are widely used on Wall Street to bet on market moves or protect against adverse stock swings. The futures have gotten harder to trade since volatility shook U.S. stocks last year, according to trading data and market participants.

The futures track the S&P 500 index. When fresh economic news comes out, it is typically felt in E-mini futures first before affecting the stock market itself.

That is why any sign of diminished liquidity in E-minis concerns traders—an issue that has taken on added importance after the sudden moves in the stock and bond markets last week. Liquidity refers to the ability to buy or sell large quantities of an asset without pushing its price up or down.

Drying UpLiquidity in E-mini S&P 500 futures fell sharply late last year and remains at levels close to those last seen inthe 2008 financial crisis.Number of contracts being quoted near the best price*Source: Marko Kolanovic and Bram Kaplan, JPMorgan*Within one point of the S&P 500's current level. Numbers are derived by averaging volume of quotes to buy and sell futures.Through March 20.
.contracts2008’09’10’11’12’13’14’15’16’17’18’1902,0004,0006,0008,00010,000March 2010x8,520 contracts

“Particularly if the market goes one way, that impact is going to be exacerbated in either an up move or a down move,” said Hallie Martin, a strategist with Deutsche Bank in New York.

One way to measure liquidity is to look at the number of price quotes publicly displayed on an exchange. This reflects the willingness of firms to buy or sell in a market and to broadcast that readiness.

By that measure—called order-book depth—liquidity in E-minis hit its lowest level in over a decade during December’s market turmoil, and remains near levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, according to research from JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 

It is typical for E-mini liquidity to thin during periods of market stress. But in past episodes of volatility, liquidity quickly returned to E-minis after markets stabilized. So far in 2019, the depth of the E-mini order book has recovered slowly and hasn’t returned to where it stood in September, before a sharp downturn began in the stock market, JPMorgan’s data shows.

“The weird thing is that markets haven’t been that volatile this quarter, but order-book depth hasn’t really recovered,” said Hovannes Jagaspanyan, an algorithmic trader in the Chicago office of Quantlab, a high-speed trading firm.

In 2017, it was often possible to buy or sell hundreds of E-mini contracts without affecting the price, but those days are long gone, said Darren Smith, a U.K.-based derivatives trader with UBS .

“During the London session, liquidity has fallen dramatically in the last few months,” he said.

Market experts suggested different theories behind the retreat in E-mini liquidity. Rick Lane, chief executive of Chicago-based financial software firm Trading Technologies, linked it to a broader shift away from transparent, on-exchange trading in recent years.

“Firms that need to do large-size trades just don’t feel as comfortable doing them on lit exchanges like they did in the past,” said Mr. Lane, whose firm’s technology is widely used in futures trading. “I think that’s part and parcel of what we’re seeing here.”

To receive our Markets newsletter every morning in your inbox, click here.

Write to Alexander Osipovich at alexander.osipovich@dowjones.com

https://www.wsj.com/...ers-11553515200

 

https://www.wsj.com/...ers-11553515200



#15 12SPX

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 07:23 AM

I have been reading this again....reposting:

 

 

Present day, 2019.

Both conditions were met the week of March 18. On March 22, the 10-year yield closed below the 3-month yield. Secondly, the 10-year yield made a new 52-week closing low on Friday, March 23rd.

15534782677701734023824.pngA close up look at the $SPX. Notice the 10-year closed at a new 52-week low while the market was rallying into another contentious level. 

1553478455231353439222.pngIn summary, it looks like a top and it feels like a top. The settings are all the same. Not just any top. Topping that marked significant drawdowns over the next few years and the two previous examples wiped out 50% of the account values each time.

Sometimes, it feels like a similar condition. In this case, it has all the makings across the asset classes. Plummeting bank stocks, plummeting yields, global slowdowns, and weak commodities. If it follows through, it is very important ! Nothing is for sure, but the logic of compression on the entire yield scale, the 10-year crossing below the 3-month and the 10-year yields making new 52-week lows is pretty compelling. It's only happened twice in this century. Friday marked the third time. 

While it is a small sample size, it is worthy of paying attention!!

1553481697333775800108.pngThere is a lot more information why Friday was so concerning, and you can find that article and video here. 

Has A Big Bear Market Rally Just Finished?  2019-03-23 Weekly Market Roundup

I also wrote an article October 15th, 2018 that you might be interested in as well. 

Zooming Out - Is A Major Top In ? 2018-10-15

https://stockcharts....oks-severe.html

I was thinking at the start of this that the market would be mostly sideways this year even if we do make new highs but I also notice an ominous head and shoulders pattern here that no one is mentioning which is good but even with that I think were going to be in a range bound trading pattern this year which is great for day trading or option selling lol!!!



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 07:41 AM

 

Technically Speaking: Are We Going To New Highs?

Written by Lance Roberts | Mar, 26, 2019

Are We Going To New Highs?

I recently received the following email:

“Are we going to hit new highs you think, or is this a setup for the real correction?”

The answer is “yes” to both parts.

Thank you for reading. See you next week.

You still here?

Fine, let me explain then.

The “price” of the financial markets are ultimately driven by one thing and one thing only: “expectations.”

Yes, fundamentals, valuations, interest rates, etc. all play an important role, but it is ultimately “expectations” of “the herd” which moves prices. Currently, valuations on stocks are at the second highest level on record, but “expectations” are that a continued “low interest rate environment” can support economic growth allowing stocks to “grow” into their valuations.

This is why Wall Street begin using “forward operating earnings,” which are complete nonsense, to justify high valuations and, you guessed it, “expectations.” (Operating earnings are essentially “made up” earnings without any of the “bad stuff” included.)

For more on this valuation read a recent article we wrote on the topic titled Price to Forecasted Hope.

The problem, historically speaking, is when those “expectations” are disappointing as shown below.  There are three important things worth pointing out:

  1. The top panel is GAAP earnings (what companies REALLY earn) and nominal GDP.
  2. The black vertical line is when the markets begin to “sniff out” something is quite right.
  3. The red bars are when “expectations” are disappointed. 

SP500-GAAP-GDP-032519.png

While “expectations” were indeed disappointing in 2015-2016, the long-term rising trend line was never violated. Secondly, the current warning signal (black vertical line) is in place, but “expectations” have not yet been disappointed.

As I discussed yesterday, one of the biggest problems facing investors is that many have never recovered from the previous two bear markets. While “this time may seem different,” the reality is such is probably not the case.

 

Let’s review the periods just prior to the onset of the last two bear markets to see if there are any similarities to today’s environment.

 

https://realinvestme...g-to-new-highs/



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 07:44 AM

Well, people like to shop! what else is there to do? (LOL)

 

Michael Lebowitz, CFA @michaellebowitz
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And by the way this is what almost 70pct of gdp growth is doing.

D2i9Vz8X4AEE_1J.jpg
5:59 PM - 25 Mar 2019


#18 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 07:51 AM

One NQ short this morning, so far

I entered a long NQ trade but it is fizzling, still holding on to it, giving it some room to run, time to play out.....

 

Note KEY EVENTS today include the possibility of another "good news TRADE WAR: snippet

 

From WSJ Morning report:  

 

Key Events

The Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook at 8 a.m. ET, and the San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly speaks about the Fed's inflation target at 3 p.m. ET.

U.S. housing starts for February, released at 8:30 a.m., are expected to slip to an annual pace of 1.21 million from 1.23 million a month earlier.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index for January is out at 9 a.m.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March, released at 10 a.m., is expected to rise to 133.0 from 131.4 a month earlier.

The Richmond Fed's manufacturing survey for March is also scheduled for 10 a.m.

President Trump heads to Capitol Hill for lunch with Senate Republicans, and in the afternoon meets with members of Congress at the White House to discuss trade.

Market Facts
  • The S&P 500 has climbed 12% this quarter, which would mark just the 11th time the broad index has gained more than 10% in a first quarter since 1950. Of the 10 previous occasions, the index has risen 90% of the time the rest of the year. The last time the index fell after posting a 10% or more gain in the first quarter was in 1987, the year of the stock-market crash known as Black Monday.
     
  • Of the 105 companies in the S&P 500 that have turned in earnings-per share guidance for the first quarter, 73% have issued projections weaker than consensus analyst expectations, according to FactSet. That's above the five-year average of 70%. 
     
  • On this day in 1979, OPEC declared following a meeting in Geneva that its members would raise the price of crude oil from $13.34 to $14.55, igniting another round of global inflation. On Monday, crude prices dipped 0.4% to settle at $58.82 a barrel. 


#19 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 08:31 AM

Closed that NQ LONG at the open. 

Waiting for the Opening dust to settle...



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2019 - 09:45 AM

Looking for another NQ long