16 replies to this topic

[LMF]

I like my technicals in every time frame from the 1 minute chart out to quarterly.....but the commentary from this guy is worth reading every weekend......

 

https://seekingalpha...egular_articles

 

[Waver]

I have called every move in this bull market correctly since inception.

When I read this, I can only take what he says with a grain of salt.

[Rogerdodger]

AAII bulls pulled back this week to 33.20 and the bears increased to 27.20

 

Mike Burk:

Technical market report for March 30, 2019.

The good news is:​  It looks like the decline of past 2 to 3 weeks ago is over.

Returns for the coming week have been positive by all measures and much stronger during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

 

CNN's Fear & Greed Index is smack in the middle at 49%.

One year ago it was at 8% bullish.

At the bottom last Christmas it was at a record low 2% bullish... and the fuse was lit!

 

[robo]

I have called every move in this bull market correctly since inception.

When I read this, I can only take what he says with a grain of salt.

 

I had one question for him and he did reply......

 

 | Following

The trend was down from August to late December 2018. If you play the primary trend as you pointed out, you must have been short or in cash. Is that correct? I'm a trend trader is why I'm asking....

31 Mar 2019, 10:11 AM 

 

 

Author’s reply »

 

r

 

u arent looking at the LONG TERM trend,

 

it wasn't in "jeopardy" until the end of Dec, and there were other signs that didn't indicate a rollover was about to take place.

 

and its why i wasn't short---- didn't sell or hedge.

 

my strategy also called for anyone that were nervous to WAIT until the trend line i follow was retested on the ensuing rally . DO NOT sell as we approached or made new lows.

 

the event i told everyone to wait for happens in EVERY market downturn , the former support WILL be tested. -- there are no exceptions.. that would then allow a nervous investor to get out around 9-10% from the top..

 

that worked this time as well, and of course once the S&P retook the indicator i use, the bullish light comes back on and here we are.

 

my comments on December 22nd ,

 

"""My first inclination is to wait for the rally that will indeed take the indices back to what was support in an effort to retake certain levels. Depending on your situation, it will be at those levels where investors can start to make the necessary changes in the transition phase. These types of rebound rallies have occurred in all of the past instances where stock market trends have broken down.""

 

I'm not clairvoyant I simply KNOW how markets work, and told anyone that wanted to listen how to proceed. Of course i was labeled the fool , as i was in '15 &'16 ,,

 

 

 

 Following

Thanks. I do understand that LT primary trend traders have it much different. LT capital gains and other indicators are important to investors. I'm a trend trader, not an investor, and was just wondering how you were trading the primary trend during that time frame.

 

Above the 9EMA and 13EMA and I'm long, below those and I'm back to cash using VXF at Vanguard. I do use Cycles, Sentiment and some other indicators, but I always take the signals when I get them.... I enjoyed reading your comments. I was just wondering how you were trading the primary trend during that time frame. I'm always looking for ways to improve my current trading system.

 

I trade only VXF, because it represents 4500ish small and midcap stocks and the trades are free at Vanguard. That means I can stay very nimble when trading. If you add the S&P 500 then it's the total stock market.

 

I will be following you.

 

Take Care.

 

Daily - Long stockcharts.com/...

 

Weekly - Long stockcharts.com/...

 

Monthly - Long stockcharts.com/...

 

Good Trading and like you I follow the primary trend, and always take the signals even if I get whipsawed.

 

A comment from a fellow Trend Trader...

 

At Fibtimer we are "trend followers." We respond to what "is" happening instead of predicting or forecasting what might happen. We "follow" price and allow the changes in price to tell us "when" to enter or exit a position.

 

Using price to determine trend does not allow trend traders to enter at the exact bottom, or to exit at the exact top. In fact, trend traders do not try to forecast the market, but instead let the market tell them when to trade and in what direction.

 

Trend traders wait patiently for prices to tell them a trend has begun. Then they jump on board. If the trend fails, they exit quickly to control losses. Price tells them when to enter "and" when to exit. If the trend continues, trend traders have no predetermined profit goal. They stay with the trend until it reverses.

 

Cutting losses quickly and staying with a trend until it ends is how trend traders realize huge profits in the financial markets. The financial markets are trending "about" 80% of the time. That means trend traders are profitable 80% of the time. During the other 20% trend traders keep losses very small so that they are ready when the next trend starts.

 

This does not mean 80% of their trades are winners, just that they are in the plus column for that 80%. If you have three losing trades of 2% and one winning trade of 18% in a year, you finish with a 12% gain, even though most trades were losers. This fits the old saying, "cut your losses short and let your winners run."

 

www.fibtimer.com/...

 

Full Disclosure: I was a sub with him for years and modeled my current trend trading system using many of his ideas. I now just read his weekly updates, as I do many others that I follow here at this Great site!

 

Long VXF, GDXJ. and VST trading VXXB

 

https://seekingalpha...-curve-concerns

 

I use the 1 hour and 2 hour data for a early warning system, but did not post them there since he is NOT a trader.

 

https://stockcharts....285&a=655653962

 

https://stockcharts....429&a=655653748

Edited by robo, 31 March 2019 - 06:18 PM.

[CLK]

No one can wait patiently for a trend to be begin, then if it fails exit quickly, they would have to give the trend room, not jump ship the first down day, what it sounded like to me. 

[robo]

No one can wait patiently for a trend to be begin, then if it fails exit quickly, they would have to give the trend room, not jump ship the first down day, what it sounded like to me. 

 Trend trading doesn't work like that if you have a true trend trading system....  Mine is different from Fibtimer's, and is more like what Jeff Clark does. 

https://www.jeffclar...inute/archives/

 

I only trade the signals these days..... It be clear has a bell on my charts.....

 

For my system the 1 hour and 2 hour data warns me of a possible trend change, and the daily confirms it. The weekly is used for someone that can't trade the daily signals based on moves in their investment/401k fund. I can trade as many times as I want as long as the funds have cleared or I have the cash. The trades are free and NO Decay....

Edited by robo, 31 March 2019 - 06:31 PM.

[LMF]

I use good commentary more for the sentiment side than anything else.....sentiment is rarely about trading systems.  And the most unlikely thing is to have a trading system that's same as somebody else's trading system.  Even further, working with IRA accounts requires longer time frames no matter how it's done.  In any case.....the key to 2018 was exactly when the Q1 highs were marginally exceeded around early October.....like an irregular EW structure in the bad seasonality period.   It didn't matter by how much.....just that new highs were set.  And once that happened, there was a reasonable chance that the Q1 lows could also be exceeded on the downside.  My system ended up with 7 consecutive washout closes on TQQQ starting from December 14.....in a normal downtrend I don't see more than 3 in a row.  If a real bear market had been on the way, there's no way the Q1 highs would have been exceeded at that point during the year.  They couldn't have done it. Beyond that all that's needed is new ATHs on the SPX advance decline line.    

[robo]

"And the most unlikely thing is to have a trading system that's same as somebody else's trading system." 

 

The trend is the system.....  If you are not on the correct side of the trend then you are wrong in my opinion. Here are Fidtimer's returns for trading small caps with a simple trend trading system.

 

https://www.fibtimer...arket_timer.asp

 

How can anyone counter trend trade the ebb and flows of the market, which we call the trend. It sometimes goes up for weeks on a weekly chart. The trade is simple for true trend traders. However, if everyone used a simple system like that how could all these so called Guru's be able to charge so much money for guessing what the markets will do next.....

 

Here is the weekly chart below, and it's very clear when you should have sold and bought. My returns are better because I use the daily data too....

 

https://stockcharts....m=1&a=655379652

 

I use only VXF and my current returns are beating the market since I changed my entire trading system to a true trend trading system.  NO other index, tweets, news. Kudlow, the Fed matters to me. Only the signals matter because I'm a true trend trader these days.  I wasn't always a trend trader - I did lots of guessing like many other traders do daily.   Others make money using other systems, but go ahead and back test mine now and calculate the returns. The signals are clear, but I don't trade the weekly data and that is why my returns are higher....

 

Bottom Line: Trend Trading is a system that trades in the direction of the Ebbs and flows of the market which creates a tradable trend. 

 

Anyway, I'm not here to debate about trend trading. For those that are they know how to use it and for those that don't they use something else..... There is NO Simpler Trading system out there in my opinion, and that's why many funds can't even beat the S&P 500 yearly....

 

For those that want to learn about trend trading his service is cheap....  

 

Good Trending!

Edited by robo, 31 March 2019 - 07:58 PM.

[robo]

I want to point out I have been with Sentiment Trader for many years and VST trade extremes when the herd causes them - I'm talking about Extreme Fear and Greed which cause extreme moves in the Ebb and Flow of the market....

 

I also use cycle data, but will NOT fade the trend except for VST counter trend trading....  This is no more then Gambling and I sometimes make  Beer Money Trades based on VST data from Sentiment trader...

 

You know.... JNUG/JDST/TNA/TZA..... junk trades based on guesses that most using proper Risk Management should NOT be doing.....

 

Looks like a nice gap up tomorrow morning, but Fridays and Monday's have been winners for months now....

 

Time for a Beer!

 

Easy Money.....I know some that have heavy short positions, and they are NOT trend trading because I'm on a buy signal....

 

Sven Henrich‏Verified account @NorthmanTrader Mar 29

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Big round of applause for magic risk free Friday making a comeback after last week's "glitch"

Edited by robo, 31 March 2019 - 08:12 PM.

[CLK]

I trade high leverage options, 10% gain on a year won't work for me. Theta is an issue that requires much more planning and work than an ETF.