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ST & IT LONG, Bears capitulating... slow TOPPING process


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:14 PM

Grinding higher, not much, but an UP day is an important stat. And, of course, it is NOT a DOWN DAY.

 

I could be 100% wrong here but this smells like a ST top, minimum. Yes, SPX 2900 could be taken out in a spike up after the 

 

NFP report tomorrow but this market looks like it is running on fumes an ready to top and then go down.

 

Bears seem to be capitulating, one of the important criteria for a market top. 

 

Willie Delwiche @WillieDelwiche
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Seeing evidence of bears capitulating with NAAIM Exposure index up 30 points this week to its highest level since August. And looks like everyone is in the pool as even the most bearish respondent is net long equities. #sentiment

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7:33 AM - 4 Apr 2019

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:17 PM

Longer gestation period than an elephant! 

 

Trump: "Very Monumental" Trade Deal May Be Announced In Four Weeks

 

Alpha Analytics @FUTURENEWS2020
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Replying to @zerohedge

Alpha Analytics Retweeted Alpha Analytics

Said it for month the reality of no deal will come down by mid April

Xi will never come to the US particularly to sign a deal making little sense for China 1f1e8-1f1f3.png

Alpha Analytics added,

Alpha Analytics @FUTURENEWS2020
China’s at the crossroads with options to deploy trillions domestically or working out a deal with the US& investing in the US giving up its leadership. china s national pride (#china2025) can lead them to go with direct investing in China and not going with the US trade deal.
8:28 AM - 6 Mar 2019

 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:22 PM

Not racing ahead, but still green

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 

WOW ! would you believe this!!!!

 

This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index number is:
91.92

Last Quarter Average
74.21

http://www.naaim.org...exposure-index/

Still above zero, stalling

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#4 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:24 PM

Bullish historical stats:

 

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When $SPX has seen 6 straight positive days AND the cumulative return for those 6 days is at least +2% (as the past 6 days have been), the NEXT five-day-return has been positive 68% of the time. [data: stooq]

1:23 PM - 4 Apr 2019
 
Since 1940, there have been 11 years now that have seen a $SPX return of at least +10% through Trading Day 65. All previous years finished green for the entire year and only one ('87) was red from Day 65 through the end of the year.
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1:01 PM - 4 Apr 2019
Today is the 65th trading day on $SPX for 2019. Would you like to see the 3 highest and 3 lowest returns for the "rest of the year" after Day 65? Would you also like to see how $SPX had done up to that point before those massive draw downs/spikes? I see.
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8:30 AM - 4 Apr 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:33 PM

Remember that EXTREME SENTIMENT does not mean there is an immediate market reaction! 

 

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30 day MA of ETF put/call ratio at extreme signalling extreme optimistic #sentiment chart via @hmeisler

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2:01 PM - 4 Apr 2019
 


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:37 PM

@AAIISentiment
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AAII Sentiment Survey: Small changes this week; all 3 readings are within their typical ranges https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey 

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4:57 AM - 4 Apr 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:38 PM

DP PMO BUYS:

 

15253015040491908789231.pngYesterday, the NDX started the PMO BUY signal party by adding the first Short-Term PMO BUY signal. Today, the other three indexes clicked ST PMO BUY signals as well. Below the Scoreboard are the charts of each signal. The Dow is struggling with overhead resistance. The NDX had a convincing breakout today after getting its PMO BUY signal yesterday. The OEX looks like the SPX, with a bearish rising wedge still intact.

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The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here!

https://stockcharts....rd-indexes.html



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:44 PM

TIM is ST neutral to bearish in a trading range??

 

 

1554309651574352605445.gifDivergences are still present. The SPY set a new short term high and the VIX closed at a higher low, a short term bearish sign. As VIX trades opposite SPY, VIX should have made a new short term low as SPY made a new short term high. Having said that, the VIX remains below +16 and intermediate-term bullish for the SPY. The bottom window is the XLF (ETF for Financials). When XLF starts to have trouble, it usually flows into the SPY.  The SPY set at a short term high and XLF made a lower high and another divergence. The bigger trend is up and new highs in SPX are possible, but, short-term, a trading range could be developing.

15543096681261684862289.gifYesterday we said, “Ideally one would like to see the hourly cumulative Tick to lead and confirm the movement of the SPX and when there is a divergence than a reversal may be near.” Today, the SPX was unchanged and the 100-hour Tick (Top window) moved modestly lower; it remains below “0” and is a bearish sign. The cumulative Tick remained near unchanged today and is not giving new information. The second window up from the bottom is the 30-hour moving average; it's above “0,” a modestly bullish sign. The market is stalling here and a pullback is possible, but we don’t have high confidence for a short position, though that could change.  If there is a pullback, it could last a week or so and test last week's low, so if there is a setup it could be worthwhile. The safer trade, in our opinion, would be on the long side as bigger trend is up. A fun statistic is that, with VIX under +16 and SPX up +10% last 3 months, April is higher 90% of the time, averaging 2.75% gain.  Sold long SPX position for a .61% gain.

https://stockcharts....ril-2-2019.html

 

1554309651574352605445.gifDivergences are still present. The SPY set a new short term high and the VIX closed at a higher low, a short term bearish sign. As VIX trades opposite SPY, VIX should have made a new short term low as SPY made a new short term high. Having said that, the VIX remains below +16 and intermediate-term bullish for the SPY. The bottom window is the XLF (ETF for Financials). When XLF starts to have trouble, it usually flows into the SPY.  The SPY set at a short term high and XLF made a lower high and another divergence. The bigger trend is up and new highs in SPX are possible, but, short-term, a trading range could be developing.

15543096681261684862289.gifYesterday we said, “Ideally one would like to see the hourly cumulative Tick to lead and confirm the movement of the SPX and when there is a divergence than a reversal may be near.” Today, the SPX was unchanged and the 100-hour Tick (Top window) moved modestly lower; it remains below “0” and is a bearish sign. The cumulative Tick remained near unchanged today and is not giving new information. The second window up from the bottom is the 30-hour moving average; it's above “0,” a modestly bullish sign. The market is stalling here and a pullback is possible, but we don’t have high confidence for a short position, though that could change.  If there is a pullback, it could last a week or so and test last week's low, so if there is a setup it could be worthwhile. The safer trade, in our opinion, would be on the long side as bigger trend is up. A fun statistic is that, with VIX under +16 and SPX up +10% last 3 months, April is higher 90% of the time, averaging 2.75% gain.  Sold long SPX position for a .61% gain.



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:47 PM

Could be a record low unemployment rate in NFP report tomorrow, with a big jump in jobs created

 

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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US jobs: Summer of ‘69! Ahead of tomorrow's payrolls report, initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 202k vs 215k consensus forecasts and 211k prior. This is the lowest number since 1969. (via Citi) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f06QZCVUHg 

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6:51 AM - 4 Apr 2019


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2019 - 05:49 PM

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Jobless claims at a new low. Stocks close to new highs. Sounds good. Over the past 50 years, that combo led to average returns more than one standard deviation below random across almost all time frames.

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6:26 AM - 4 Apr 2019