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short SPY 288.52, might not get


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#1 slupert

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Posted 05 April 2019 - 10:17 AM

much of a pullback, standard deviation is at the point it has always provided a dip on this rally, ultimate and rsi almost at the point,  might be a little early, Monday??  http://schrts.co/XQPZwxRG



#2 robo

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Posted 07 April 2019 - 08:00 AM

Next week is normally a very positive week, but the Sentiment data is sending out warnings about the current Risk/Reward level. It's getting much higher....  Traders should avoid leverage if long based on my data and I use Sentiment Trader.

Long VXF and GDXJ

 

Good Luck on your trade!

 

Don't Be A (Knee) Jerk
  • headshot_jason_thumbnail_hd.jpg
    Jason Goepfert
     
     Published: 2019-04-06 at 10:20:53 CDT

There is a long history of using anecdotal "evidence" as a contrary indicator. Through the decades, traders have used the enthusiasm of shoeshine boys, taxi cab drivers, and cocktail party conversations as their basis that sentiment had reached an extreme. 

 

It can still be useful. Our family Christmas party in 2017 was dominated by talk of bitcoin. This coming from people who had never bought a share of stock in their life, much less anything more exotic. A brother-in-law even pulled me aside to conspiratorially tell me about an ICO opportunity he could get me in on. That was sign enough for me.

"You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over." Joe Kennedy

 

But this can go too far. It can get to the point where a knee-jerk contrarian sees an extreme in every whisper.

And that's dangerous.

 

A favorite punching bag is the magazine indicator. If we see a bull on the cover - sell! Sorry, but it's just not that easy.

There is something to this, but it's subtle. The Economist, to their credit, posted a study a couple years ago which confirmed that their cover stories did, indeed, present contrarian investment opportunities. It wasn't a slam-dunk, but an investor did better buy buying negative cover stories and selling positive ones over the next year.

This week, the Barron's cover seems disturbing for bulls, with "Is The Bull Unstoppable" in big, bold letters right there for everyone to see.

 

https://www.sentimen...be-a-knee-jerk/

 

 

 

 

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Some magazine covers can be good contrary indicators. The Economist even admits it. Barron's is not one of them. @barronsonline

 

 

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Edited by robo, 07 April 2019 - 08:09 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#3 slupert

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Posted 08 April 2019 - 01:49 PM

not covering today



#4 slupert

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Posted 09 April 2019 - 05:21 PM

still short added  some qid too, 5hink ill need more of that on bounces. (JMHO)



#5 slupert

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Posted 11 April 2019 - 06:34 AM

still in.



#6 slupert

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Posted 12 April 2019 - 04:32 PM

didnt cover, next move should be down, . (JMHO)



#7 slupert

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Posted 17 April 2019 - 06:23 PM

still in there added more tech. *JMHO)