18 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

With NEW HIGHS around the bend, there is the odor of irrational exuberance and it could also be another potential BULL TRAP waiting to spring on the careless trader. 

 

Technically, the market is still very strong as it grinds higher and those who still characterize this as a Bear Market rally will have to throw away that if there is a new SPX record high.

In terms of Sentiment, it feels and look as it is at en extreme level but the market can still spike up another 2 or 3 %; actually, any market can do that but what is needed to take this to the magic SPX 3000 level is a catalyst or two. Maybe great earnings are coming up for Q 2019; maybe finally there is a definite Trade Deal or even a minor one that can satisfy everyone, even temporarily, or something out there that can give some more oomph to the rally.

 

I don't expect that because during the past 2 to 3 weeks this market has been behaving as one nearing a top rather than one in the middle to later stages that is running on all cylinders. 

 

I am about 90% cash in my LT Portfolio with  few hundred total shares in MICROSOFT (since long ago!), MERCK, and NESTLE.

 

Very tempted to close MSFT & MERCK now but that might be after SPX 2900; will not close NESTLE, had it since 2009 on a recommendation from a friend and it just keeps rising, even if slowly. 

 

My QQQ PUT holding is down 39% but I have made much more profit in NQ so not surrendering as yet. And, I am trading 10-lot NQ longs, just feels much better doing that with lots of QQQ puts in the basket.

 

@OddStats

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It's Friday. It's $SPX. It's a 7 day win streak. And 67% of the time since electronic trading began in 1983, that meant the next week was green too.

2:35 PM - 5 Apr 2019

 

 

@OddStats

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By the way, weekly initial jobless claims were 202,000 yesterday; the lowest they've been since the first week of December, 1969... ...the week a recession began. [source: Federal Reserve/NBER]

9:20 AM - 5 Apr 2019

 

 

[dTraderB]

Tiring week, traded mainly NQ, added a few QQQ puts, had 2 CRUDE trades and 4 GPB  trades - 3 short, one long

 

After lagging, global stocks are catching up and now participating in the rally:

 

@Schuldensuehner

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Global stocks have gained another $1.9tn in mkt cap this week (now up + $11tn ytd) as Goldilock narrative makes a comeback after decent growth data (US, China, Europe) w/ subdued inflation numbers at the same time. All equities now worth >$80tn, equal to almost 100% of global GDP

4:07 AM - 6 Apr 2019

[dTraderB]

Growth Indicator Hitting All-Time Highs, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The long-term trend of Growth stocks being stronger than Value Stocks has been up for years and years.

Are Growth stocks attempting to send a new bullish message to stocks of late? Yes, they are!

This chart compares the Vanguard Growth Index Fund (VUG) to Vanguard Value Index Fund (VTV) on a monthly basis over the past 8-years. The ratio trend remains up, as it continues to create a series of higher lows off the 2011 lows.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- The VUG/VTV ratio this month is currently above last years highest monthly close. If the ratio continues higher it sends a positive message to growth stocks or value plays.

https://www.philstoc...ays-joe-friday/

[dTraderB]

Just seems as TOO MANY are predicting a recession, crowd is always wrong on such important issues except when it is beyond a doubt.

 

 

Summary

I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

The Fed's plan is going to fail; it was always obvious it was going to fail; and it is now, in fact, failing in exactly the manner I've said it would.

I think a big, fat recession in 2019 could be the best thing that ever happened, even though it would be the worst thing that ever happened.

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that event fulfilled, I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

To confirm my bearish claim on the market's crash:

Several leading stock market indexes around the globe endured bear market declines in 2018. In the U.S. in December, the small cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) bottomed out 27.2% below its prior high. The widely-followed U.S. large cap barometer, the S&P 500 Index (SPX), just missed entering bear market territory, halting its decline 19.8% below its high.

https://seekingalpha...ecession-coming

[dTraderB]

Initial Claims Suggest Significant New Highs For S&P 500

Summary

In the absence of a major macroeconomic shock, analysis of initial unemployment claims data suggests that a US recession is at least 18 months away.

If a US recession is at least 18 months away, significant new highs for the S&P 500 are very likely.

Risk of macroeconomic shock is lower now than at a similar stage in previous business cycles.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Successful Portfolio Strategy. Start your free trial today »

In my most recent article, I argued that, contrary to popular belief, the recent inversion of the 10Y-3M yield curve suggests significant new highs for the S&P 500 going forward. In this article, I will show that an important leading economic indicator – initial unemployment claims – is signaling that, assuming there are no forthcoming exogenous shocks, the next recession is probably at least 18 months into the future. If a recession is at least 18 months away, significant new highs for the S&P 500 (SPY) are highly likely during this time frame.

 

https://seekingalpha...ghs-s-and-p-500

[dTraderB]

BARRON'S preview:

 

The Calendar

First-quarter earnings season officially begins next week with results from big banks JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo -- both on Friday morning. On Wednesday, Delta Air Lines and Bed Bath & Beyondreport, followed by Fastenal on Thursday. 

Two proposed mergers will come before shareholders during the week: Newmont Mining/Goldcorp on Thursday and Bristol-Myers Squibb/Celgene on Friday. Walt Disney also holds an investor day on Thursday, when it's expected to reveal more details about its coming streaming strategy.

The economic data highlight of the week comes on Wednesday with the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's March meeting. As usual, Fed watchers will closely parse officials' remarks for insights into the health of the U.S. economy and the future path of interest rates. 

Also on Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March consumer price index, an important inflation gauge. Excluding volatile food and energy components, economists expect a 2.1% year-over-year increase in March, in line with the previous month's rate. The core producer price index for March, out Thursday, is expected to have increased 2.5% from last year. 

What Recession? The latest jobs report might finally put to bed those lingering slowdown fears. The U.S. economy added 196,000 jobs in March -- 21,000 more than expected. The weak February report, which had stirred concern, was revised up a bit, to a gain of 33,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, and hourly earnings were up 3.2% from a year earlier. The wage growth hit the sweet spot -- high enough to show progress, but not so high as to trigger inflation fears. 

Charlie Ripley, senior market strategist for Allianz Investment Management called the report a "huge relief for investors...Overall, the report dovetails very well into the Fed’s current thinking as the labor market conditions remain solid while signs of inflation remain muted, which gives them more runway to keep policy rates at the current level."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day up 40 points, or 0.2%. But it was the second-lowest volume trading day of the year. 

So why weren't investors more excited? Well, here's the other side of the equation: The better-than-expected jobs number could also put to bed any hope of a quick rate cut. The momentum for a cut had been growing in the last few weeks, amid signs of a slowing economy -- including February's weak jobs report. Just last week, futures traders were pricing in a 64% chance of at least one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year. After today's jobs report, the rate-cut expectation is down to 52%. 

 

--Nicholas Jasinski

[robo]

Just seems as TOO MANY are predicting a recession, crowd is always wrong on such important issues except when it is beyond a doubt.

 

 

Summary

I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

The Fed's plan is going to fail; it was always obvious it was going to fail; and it is now, in fact, failing in exactly the manner I've said it would.

I think a big, fat recession in 2019 could be the best thing that ever happened, even though it would be the worst thing that ever happened.

The 2018 stock market crash is now a fait accompli, having taken a polar bear plunge that put ice in the veins of the Fed and electrified their collective spine with such a deep chill they ran like a fat walrus from the bear market to halt their long-nurtured plans of economic tightening. With that event fulfilled, I'm now predicting a 2019 recession as the major economic news for this year (both US and global).

To confirm my bearish claim on the market's crash:

Several leading stock market indexes around the globe endured bear market declines in 2018. In the U.S. in December, the small cap Russell 2000 Index (RUT) bottomed out 27.2% below its prior high. The widely-followed U.S. large cap barometer, the S&P 500 Index (SPX), just missed entering bear market territory, halting its decline 19.8% below its high.

https://seekingalpha...ecession-coming

They are predicting a recession based on the data, historical patterns, and other indicatos.  I don't know or don't care if we have one....  In fact , I make more money during a recession....

 

Bottom Line: It had better be different this time or a recession is getting closer. Let me be clear - Recessions are a normally part of the cycle, but those controlling the money DON'T want one and so far they are doing ok....

 

The Trend remains up, but the recession indicators are real and are based on data not sentiment or folks guessing.

 

Bottom Line - If you are a trader who the HECK CARES......  Trade the Ebb and Flow - up, down, sideways, but most importantly be on the right side of the market....

 

Good Trading next week.... Your post really don't indicate how you are trading.

 

Long VXF and GDXJ......  Waiting on the signal to trade some VXXB again.... Nothing wrong with reading over all these guessers opinions, but the the trend remains up and traders shouldn't care why.... LOL.... Investing is different...Good luck on that in this market.... I read them too, but it's all just noise to me....

 

Most are just useless and can't even beat the S&P 500.... How much is it up so far this year?

Edited by robo, 07 April 2019 - 10:52 AM.

[dTraderB]

CARL:

 

DP WEEKLY WRAP 2019-04-05: Overhead Resistance Near; VIX Overbought

Carl Swenlin |  April 05, 2019 at 06:17 PM

 

An inverted VIX with Bollinger Bands is a pretty good overbought/oversold indicator, and it is overbought when the VIX hits the upper band as it almost did today. "Almost" might be good enough this time, or we may have to wait a few days for the real deal, but it is close enough to get my attention. Not only is the VIX overbought, the S&P 500 (SPY) has nearly reached last year's all-time highs, which is a significant level of overhead resistance. Below we will be looking at the condition of other indicators to see if they pose additional obstacles to higher prices.

The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here!

https://stockcharts....2019-04-05.html

[dTraderB]

Tom says it has much more to run up...

Tom McClellan: VIX Futures Open Interest

Tom McClellan |  April 05, 2019 at 01:01 PM

That means the uptrend which started off of the Dec. 24, 2018 low should have a lot longer to run.

Tom McClellan,
Editor
The McClellan Market Report
www.mcoscillator.com

[dTraderB]

SENTIMENT TRADER says up & away:

 

Survey says…buy!

Near the end of December, pessimism was hitting its practical maximum in some of our indicators and models, including the AIM Model of surveys. It has fully recovered since then, and will rise to 80% this week, the highest since early 2018.

Like many other studies that look at a fully cycle of sentiment, this one shows relatively weak returns in the medium-term, but fairly strong ones longer-term.

Good times

More than 200 junk bonds set a 52-week high than set a 52-week low this week, the most in two years. Since the recovery from the financial crisis, the high-low differential has been this positive on only 40 total days. According to the Backtest Engine, funds like HYG struggled a bit over the next couple of weeks.

Optimistic money managers

According to the NAAIM survey of active investment managers, the average manager is more than 90% exposed to stocks. This is not your typical contrary survey, though. When managers were more than 90% for the first time in at least four months, two months later the S&P 500 was higher 6 out of 6 times. 

https://www.sentimen...s-from-a-plunge